Is the modern Japanese Pokemon card market in a speculative bubble? Pt. 2

Really curious what the Japanese sentiment is on the whole thing. I saw a Japanese tweet speculating that China was buying up a lot of product (sounds familiar…)

What are the hot Japanese TCG forums? Would love to be a fly on the wall there rn

Most of the buyers for my recent Festa sales were Japanese. One was Chinese.

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I stand by my thoughts that this is a response to Japanese being way under valued for so long. It’s a bit overvalued now, but I’m sure it’ll stabilize at some point.

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Supply in retail stores is still terrible to nonexistent. This how the average consumer and kids get their stuff, not sitting on the Pokémon Center website and F5ing all day long or lining up first thing in the morning on a weekday to get a new release. Right now Japanese is mostly for people who have to time to sink into it. The day you can walk into any retail shop and buy packs of Pokémon cards off the shelf is the day that this is over. The question is when and does the TPC even have ambitions for that?

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Originally voted neutral. Now voted agree.

I smell FOMO. If a master battle set is $10,000, a near mint Tropical Wind should not be $12,500 BIN.

I’d either expect this prices to cool off, or this card to explode. The scales just seems so out of balance.

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An American friend who has lived in Japan offered me this perspective.

Over there, the Pokémon TCG was always a card game first and a collectable second. The average Pokémon fan did not relate to the card game as a commodity with innate value beyond its function as a card game component. It is comparable to the way most Magic cards are perceived in America, where value is predominantly derived from utility. So imagine the state of MtG we have today where there’s some famous standout cards worth a lot of money but mostly the cards are played and not widely collected.

Then around Generation 7, there began a shift in the way players perceived the series and they became more interested in the entire brand as a consumer collectable, specifically with respect for the trading card game. The Japanese hobby shifted from something comparable to modern day western MtG to something comparable to modern day western Pokémon. With that has come sharp growth, sustained demand, and a drastically more competitive environment that previously did not exist.

The shift in perspective occurring in Japan is not artificial, but is perhaps overdue. I won’t claim to know everything that contributed to this shift, but I think as westerners we should be finding the new market from Japan more familiar than strange. The hobby just caught up and slingshotted ahead to be more like us.

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For all of you collectors who own some of these cards that are skyrocketing.

Are you listing your cards?
Have you already sold them?
Are you holding onto them for your collection regardless of “value”?

I own multiple Festas and am in no rush to dump them. I’m selling them the same pace before the increase.

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I assume just increasing price to demand?

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My Lillie Waifu card should cost more than illustrator

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I personally have no opinion until a new smpratte video comes out and tells me what to think.

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While I don’t own any of the major “stonking” cards, the Japanese cards that I have had listed for 3 months with no bites have suddenly began moving. All modern alt art set cards. 3 sales this weekend which is very unusual for me

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Ya I had a japanese psa 9 entei that was listed for a while that all the sudden sold this weekend as well… also considering “cashing out” some sealed booster japanese booster boxes that have stonked from SM era but I only have about 2 of each…

This whole post really, but especially this excerpt:

Nothing wrong with selling an extra of each box to ride the wave. In hindsight, I wish I had done that more during the last peak. As long as it’s not a truly scarce item there’s a good chance you can get it back once this all settles down

If that’s truly the case, then it would suggest a more permanent shift which unfortunately looks like it will price out more people. Then again, their product was never intended to be sold overseas.

Once again, I feel like the only real solution moving forward is to standardise texture and print quality control.

Obviously people might still want the ‘original’ but much less so when every language - and more importantly, the most accessible language to them is much cheaper.

The second problem is the varying release dates between international/West and Japan/Asia. Honestly I think it’s high time that it was also standardised. People say that the West needs all the ancillary product (that Japan has very few of) to get consistent attention and yet also say that having too many sets is incongruous with the Western audience. It seems slightly contradictory.

This is a far greater undertaking than I would expect from a coasting, comfortable company like Pokemon, but they should redesign the whole process of manufacture and distribution from the ground up.

As I’ve alluded to in other posts, the amount of energy cards printed is a massive waste, as is the amount of plastic and other crap in all the boxes and ETBs. There is no reason why Pokemon should be immune to changing their process when we live in a world of excess and climate breakdown.

If they really want to encourage the ‘card game’ aspect of it, then they really need to do a lot more and be more creative about it. Energy cards should be provided to the LGS or be made to order from their website. All the different promos should be made exclusive to LGS/events/tournaments - even PTCGO rewards that maybe can be ‘redeemed’ through Pokemon Centre online orders or other methods.

In fact, they could upgrade PTCGO/Live whatever it’s called further. Actually modernise it and allow online LGS to also host tournaments etc. for those players/consumers who don’t live near a physical store. Allow streaming, chatting etc. There are just so many ways to improve and they seem to have done nothing really - and some might point out, why do they need to when they are making record sales? True, but that’s not only such a low bar and an unsustainable one in a changing world.

edit: and re: ancillary product, maybe that isn’t even true, because Japan has such variety of sleeves etc that international doesn’t have. At least those feature art unlike English whose excess product is all packaging.

Also, products are meant to be opened, so if you’re a sealed collector, you’ll probably hate these suggestions, but once again, they were never meant to be kept sealed. And anyway, I personally think it’s merely an excuse to hide the fact they are speculating or investing in it. Let’s be honest, there’s no reason you can’t open an ETB or a booster box and still display the packaging - if the display is truly what you like.

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I’m selling stuff i have multiple copies of, but putting that money towards ones I don’t have yet and paying these inflated prices.

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Japanese card shops:

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No joke, the infamous magi makes a post every month bragging about making 9-digit JPY sales the past month:
https://twitter.com/magi_Akiba/status/1662843834466963456

Its already too late for this era. What would have to happen is either Japan gets no sets for 6 months or English drops 6 months of sets. Neither sounds like a fun option for anyone. I don’t think TPC’s monthly/semi-monthly set release is better, nor the only “right way” to do sets. When one set releases you get teasers the very next week. Its harder to keep up with TPC, especially when print runs are tighter and sets are rarely overprinted.

The thing is, all those product types English gets are for both single and multiple sets. If English switched to a monthly release, its likely TPCI would drop the latter part. The variety of packs in English products is something that the west does better imo. With English, you have more time to relax, to buy, and to open packs. The product variety fills in the gap between set releases (every few months) and provides steady access to older sets months (or years) after release.

Energies being in every product may have something to do with how TPCI is able to sell packs/products as game pieces/toys. :person_shrugging:

As far as wastage goes, I wish products had less fluff and more cards/packs to them. The climate aspect isn’t something I really care about if I’m being honest.

Which promos exactly? I’d like to point out that not everyone has an LGS to go to, but nearly everyone lives within 15 minutes of a Walmart, Target, GameStop, or any other major retailer that carries Pokémon. I’m all for having more promos tied to competing, but I think accessibility is very important for the hobby.

If people want to keep things sealed, they can do that. I disagree with the mindset that cards have to be enjoyed in specific ways.

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