Hi Guys, I’m new here and like to hear your guys opinion on investing in (vintage) singles or just singles in general. I’m talking long term and not just an easy quick flip.
Do you think vintage singles have plateaued in price? I understand booster boxes or any other sealed products will (probably) in many years (slowly) raise in price, but will 20 year old singles be worth more in 10 years from now? I feel like they have matured in price and won’t raise much as most people who own mint copies now will take good care of them.
I think right now they’ve become a good value again and have even picked up a bit since late last year. In my opinion I think that vintage market (singles + sealed) will see more linear growth compared to exponential growth of the past 5+ years or so and the “easy money” has been made so to speak. A lot of the growth was also overblown because of the extreme situation things got placed in 2020/2021 and has now corrected to what seems like the fair market value on a lot of cards.
I feel that most vintage Pokemon collectors are still fairly young and as time goes on I think more people could step up to pay higher prices as the supply of cards is continually absorbed. More people are also continually looking at collectibles as an alternative investment similar to artwork or other rare items and with less focus on traditional investments like in the past. So the investing attitude and landscape is much different now and evolving as well. I still think vintage Pokemon still has some years to fully mature yet.
I think for the cards to not gain value or go down in value is because of a major fundamental shift in the market where people would continually lose interest or something bad happens with Pokemon company. The only thing to compare to right now that I can think of is the state of vintage MTG cards where a lot of people got upset with Hasbro and became bearish. Pokemon company has not made those types of mistakes or anything similar where people have lost confidence in it, it’s in a very strong position.
Overall, I am bullish on vintage Pokemon long-term. To me they are timeless collectibles and the value of Pokemon as a brand/IP is very high. It’s just very difficult to not find something to like about it and I think this will continue to keep the cards in demand for years to come which will result in steady growth.
There are sports cards over 100 years old that are still earning record prices. Pokemon “vintage” is considered modern for pretty much every other hobby. Most hobbies are older and the average person is further along in their career, hence more spending power. So no I don’t think one of the youngest hobbies with one of the youngest demographics has plateaued.
Exactly - I also think the 90s is a special decade for a lot of reasons. It was really the beginning of so many TCG games and other things as well that have become part of our lives now. I think early Pokemon cards will have the long-running/historical value that people will look back on for a long time as something special from that era. It’s also a truly global phenomenon and blends in with basically any culture/group at this point. So I think all these factors add up to making it a really special collectible and more.
As others have said, Pokemon has a long way to go. We may underestimate it on e4, Reddit, IG, etc., but a very, very large proportion of collectors are still children and adolescents. As they (and we) grow older, buying power will likely grow for us all.
In other words, the right ingredients are certainly there. The unknown piece is demand, and whether demand will wax and wane in the coming years/decades.
If you are collecting vintage singles for resale in the future, the most liquid opportunity would be graded mint or gem mint cards with strong fundamentals.
To answer the questions you pose, it might be a good idea to look into how other collectibles have performed. Most importantly, collectible stamps have an annualized return of 7.0% in nominal terms, or 2.9% in real terms. This is above bonds but below equity.
As others here have correctly said, Pokemon is nowhere close to a mature collectible market where transaction volumes are much higher. With an aging collector base, this may change. Also, a nice thing about collectibles that often goes unnoticed is that they partially hedge against unanticipated inflation; not many investment categories can claim that.
Edit: I forgot to say that the performance of stamps is based on a century time period: Redirecting
Marvel comics arguably peaked in price when those who had them when they were kids were in their 60s/70s and have way more disposable income.
On average, more people become millionaires when they are in their 50s.
1st Appearance of spiderman hit over $2M (I think).
Pokemon is a more valuable franchise than Marvel.
Most of us who had it when we were kids in 1999 are in our early 30s.
Long term Im very bullish.
Short term, its pretty painful with price drops (but overall macro economics are crap so it’s not just pokemanz) - so just enjoy collecting now rather than focusing on the money side of things
IMO PSA 10 first edition base set holos have so much room to run. The POP is pretty freaking low, and from what I have seen it appears PSA has made it alot tougher to get a psa 10 then it was previously. I think the gap between charizard and the rest of the holos should also change overtime. it makes no sense to me that a PSA10 1st edition charizard sell for over a 250K and a polywrath sell for around 5k. okay maybe that wont change. But If pokemon continues to be collected like mentioned above, then I see no way they dont increase in value.
Do I think average vintage singles are a good investment? Yes, absolutely. Within the context of having the necessary infrastructure, operating at significant scale and betting on long-term, sustained generational interest.