Wondered about this today and used Claude 3.7 Sonnet to workout some rough guesstimate. Here is the original prompt if you want to replicate:
“as you know, vintage pokemon tcg has increased in value considerably since its inception. however, the scale of its increase and especially the intra-year fluctuations are harder to understand. starting from inflation adjusted msrp back in 1996 or 1999 in the west (?) to your latest available data, focusing only on the sets from wizards of the cost (up until the e-reader era iirc), would you be able to draft a primitive average price evolution of this “vintage pokemon tcg” category year by year, displaying the booms and busts (or even bubbles) to the best of your ability, from any market analysis or user data collation?”
I then asked it to graph its response which is the image you see. While these are rough estimates from Claude, they seem plausible since a lot of this data is publicly available and representative enough.
I think this is an inappropriate use of a LLM unless you feed it the correct data yourself. It will just give you a vibes-based answer that’s not based on measurable reality.
For example, here’s what I get from ChatGPT 4o using your prompt and asking for base set unlimited booster box specifically:
Year
Approx. Price Range (USD)
Market Sentiment / Notes
1999
$120–$150
Initial release in North America; typical “MSRP range” is about $120 for 36 packs. Demand was high due to Pokémon craze; some hobby stores charged a markup.
2000
$150–$200
The hype ramps up further; many kids/collectors chase “Charizard.” 1st Edition is already separate and higher, but Unlimited boxes see increased aftermarket prices too.
2001
$120–$170
By late 2000/early 2001, supply on Unlimited is still large. Prices sometimes dip—“Poké-mania” cools.
2002
$110–$150
Wizards of the Coast still publishing expansions, but Base Unlimited is perceived as “old news,” leading to some softening.
2003
$90–$140
The last WotC-era set (Skyridge) arrives and the license shifts to Nintendo. Secondary market for Base Unlimited in a bit of a lull.
2004
$80–$120
Early/mid-2000s sees many older boxes languish in closets or small shop inventories; not yet widely recognized as “vintage.”
2005
$80–$120
Minimal mainstream attention. Only dedicated collectors are actively acquiring sealed Base boxes.
2006
$100–$140
Interest in older product gradually picks up, though still niche.
2007
$120–$150
Supply of sealed boxes is slowly dwindling. YouTube TCG channels begin popping up.
2008
$140–$180
Steady, incremental growth. Collector forums note that sealed Base (even Unlimited) is getting harder to find.
2009
$150–$200
10th anniversary of the Japanese launch was 2006; mild nostalgia in the West. Prices keep inching up.
2010
$200–$250
A small community of PSA-grade enthusiasts is forming; high-grade Base Charizard mania trickles over to sealed box interest.
2011
$200–$300
An uptick as more adult collectors want their childhood sets. Still not mainstream.
2012
$250–$350
Neo sets and Base Set 1st Edition overshadow Unlimited Base a bit, but everything is slowly growing.
2013
$300–$400
Articles and YouTube videos highlight WotC sets, fueling more interest in sealed Base boxes.
2014
$400–$500
The “it’s truly vintage now” mindset gains momentum. This is around the time many realize sealed WotC product is not being replenished.
2015
$500–$700
Gradual climb continues, but still overshadowed by 1st Edition.
2016
$700–$900
Pokémon GO phenomenon + 20th Anniversary. The nostalgic crowd floods back in; base set holos spike, and sealed boxes follow.
2017
$800–$1,100
Continual rally; more collectors chase sealed Base as a stable “key piece” of any Pokémon TCG collection.
2018
$1,000–$1,400
Market remains bullish, though not yet “explosive.” High-grade singles are also ramping up.
2019
$1,200–$1,600
Renewed nostalgia wave; YouTube box breaks become more common, gradually pumping the sealed market.
2020
$2,000–$5,000
Pandemic and social-media influencer hype cause a massive surge. Collectibles generally spike; Pokémon is a prime beneficiary.
2021
$5,000–$8,000+
Peak mania for modern Pokémon TCG flipping; Logan Paul box breaks bring huge mainstream attention. Prices can vary wildly (some spikes >$10k).
2022
$3,000–$5,000
Post-boom “correction”: prices slip from 2021 highs, but remain well above pre-2020 levels.
2023
$3,500–$6,000
Market stabilizes; less frenzy, but still robust collector demand and limited sealed supply keep prices strong.
2024+
$3,000–$6,000+
Future uncertain—depends on broader collectible trends, overall economy, and continuing nostalgia.
For context, I paid about $4k for a box around 2018-2019 they peaked over $30k and are back around 20k today. So it can capture the very basic trend but the numbers are completely wrong.
