“Is it really worth $60,000… or are you paying for someone else’s party?”
Imagine your trusted dealer offering you a Charizard 1st Edition CGC 10 for the price of a sports car. Or you spot a Giant-Size X-Men #1 CGC 9.8 climbing to $60,000, while another identical copy is about to close at 25% less.
The temptation is strong: “If it’s worth that today, it’ll be worth even more tomorrow.”
But what if the secret isn’t in chasing the highest grade, but in finding the optimal grade, that sweet spot where value increases and the ridiculous premiums disappear?
In today’s article, you’ll discover:
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The role “investment-grade” plays as a benchmark — and why, in Pokémon TCG, it’s still a very exclusive club.
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How to identify the Optimal Collecting Grade (OCG) and pay for value, not for the label.
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Why no Pokémon card is yet a “safe-haven” and what indicators should change for it to become one.
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When the Top-Pop stops being an investment and becomes pure ego (and how to spot it with a six-step checklist).
During the 2020-2021 boom, we saw many people pay sky-high premiums for pieces that later corrected by more than 75%, leaving huge losses in their wake. The wave at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025 seems set to repeat this history once again.
The result of buying without a clear strategy is often a mix of unbalanced portfolios, shelves full of “limited” cardboard that was never actually scarce, inflated top-pop slabs, and, most of all, misaligned expectations.
If all this sounds too financial, remember: collecting is also about capital allocation; it’s just that sometimes, that capital comes disguised as nostalgia and shiny cardboard.
1. Defining the Playing Field
In previous articles, we’ve covered key fundamentals of collectibles, which today serve as the foundation for understanding new concepts. Let’s quickly review them:
1.1 Investment vs. Speculation
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Investing is exchanging money for an asset whose value—not just its price—you expect to grow over ≥ 5 years. Moderate risk and compounded reward.
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Speculating is betting on a price increase in the short term (≤ 5 years). High risk with quick gains or losses.
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In collectibles, the line blurs because sometimes we fall in love with the item. But the math doesn’t lie: if you’re relying on the next bubble to make a profit, you’re not investing.
1.2 Organic Collectibility vs. Mass-Produced Scarcity
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Organic: Products created to be used, not stored. Their scarcity is a consequence, not a marketing plan (e.g., Charizard 1st Edition, Black Lotus Alpha, Action Comics #1).
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Manufactured Scarcity: Printed to be collected and always kept in perfect condition. Its scarcity is usually more of a marketing tool than a reality. You can always find copies for sale and in good condition (e.g., Moonbreon).
1.3 The Three Stages in the Life of a Collectible
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Speculative (0-30 years): High volatility; influencers and trends drive prices. Pokémon TCG is here.
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Established (31-50 years): There’s already proven sustained interest in the collectible; bubbles hurt less and happen less often. For example, Silver Age comics.
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Mature (50+ years): Deep and relatively liquid market; occasional bubbles may arise, but the historical floor weighs heavily. Classic numismatics, post-war art.
1.4 The Term “Investment-grade”
Although we didn’t assign a name to the collectibles that fall into this category, we saw this concept in the article “Are Collectibles, like Pokémon TCG, Good Investments?” when discussing collectibles that could be categorized as suitable for investment.
In short, “investment-grade” is not synonymous with “high grade” or “expensive.” It’s a three-part filter:
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Real Rarity
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Condition
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Demand/Liquidity
Being at the top of a hobby in all three characteristics at the same time is what qualifies a collectible as “suitable for investment.”
Depending on the stage of its life and how stable its market is, we can determine what percentage of cards fall into this top tier.
As I described in the article, and although the industry generally considers 10-15% of the top of a hobby as “investment-grade,” I prefer to set the ceiling at 10% due to the speculative nature of the asset itself.
And for collectibles still in their Speculative Stage like Pokémon TCG, I tend to be conservative and consider only 1-3%.
It only makes full sense to talk about investment-grade in established or mature markets, and even more so when discussing safe-haven assets (a concept we’ll talk about later). Pokémon TCG might get there, but it’s still in the stress-test phase today.
That 1-3% represents not only the very best in the tripartite filter but also the most mature cards and sections of the hobby (e.g., Pika Trophies from 1997 and 1998, Charizard 1st Edition Base Set PSA 10, Pikachu Illustrator…).
Having reviewed these concepts, let’s now move on to Optimal Collecting Grade, which adds an efficiency nuance: which specific grade maximizes value per dollar without paying the “top pop” premium.
2. Optimal Collecting Grade (OCG): Buying the Sweet Spot
2.1 What It Is and Where It Comes From
The Optimal Collecting Grade (OCG) originated in the 1980s numismatic world, when coin collectors realized that the price jump between MS-64 and MS-65 could be 3-4 times, without the enjoyment of owning the piece changing that much. The idea is simple:
OCG = the grade where the next step up costs a disproportionate amount.
You pay for the “dream object” in a very high condition, while avoiding the 300% premium paid by Top-Pop hunters.
2.2 How to Spot It in Practice
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Plot the price curve by grade. Use the typical price history tools for your hobby (GPA Analysis, Heritage Auctions, 130point, Pokedata…).
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Look for the “cliff”: that point where the graph skyrockets almost vertically.
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Check the census (POP report): The OCG should have enough supply to ensure liquidity, but not so much that it becomes “common.”
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Confirm real demand: Review global sales history and see how often they occur and why they do so with that frequency.
2.3 Quick Examples in Pokémon TCG
| Card | POP 8 | POP 9 | POP 10 | Price 8 (≈) | Price 9 (≈) | Price 10 (≈) | OCG? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard 1st Edition Base Set | 683 | 728 | 124 | 11,300 $ | 29,000 $ | 252,000 $ | Yes → PSA 9 |
| Shining Gyarados 1st Neo Revelation | 435 | 622 | 116 | 1,250 $ | 3,000 $ | *8,000 $ | Yes → PSA 9 |
Approximate values. Q2-2025 based on public sales reflected in Pokedata.io.
Why These Grades Are “Optimal”
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Charizard PSA 9: Good liquidity for a cornerstone piece in the hobby; the PSA 10 commands a rockstar premium that only fits in very specific portfolios.
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Shining Gyarados PSA 9: A reasonable premium over PSA 8, almost a x3… but still light-years away from the PSA 10, which sells at a x6.
Two Things to Keep in Mind…
2.3.1 Disparities in POPs
You may have noticed something: Why, in these examples, are there more cards in POP 9 than in 8? Shouldn’t these cards, which have great organic collectibility, have been trashed in schoolyards, making it harder to find higher POPs?
If you’ve asked yourself these questions, you’re on the right track. But why does this happen?
This is due to a very common practice in the collectibles world, especially in TCGs: crack-out / re-submission.
Given the OCG and the large price disparities between nines and top-pops, cards that come back from grading houses with a 9… often get opened to be sent back for another shot.
This results in the 9 POP report going up due to duplicates that no one tells PSA to remove from their database.
Grading is done by humans. It depends on the perception and opinion of a particular individual and, therefore, it’s not an exact science.
While it’s true that some houses are starting to rely more on AI for grading (e.g., AGS, TAG), it’s not the norm. So, for example, the valuation between the hundreds of graders at PSA may not be the same.
When it comes to small imperfections, it’s common to get a grade change of ±1. This makes it entirely plausible to re-submit a 9 and have it come back as a 10… and this can be very profitable.
So, always take the POP report for grades immediately below top-pop with a grain of salt. In many cases, more than 50% of the cards may no longer exist in those grades, as they’ve been cracked out.
Think about it: the difference between a Charizard 1st PSA 9 and a PSA 10 could be the equivalent of buying a garage space or a nice house to live in for the rest of your life… For many, it’s worth trying again more than once.
And…
2.3.2 Buy the Card, Not the Grade
As you might have guessed by now, not all cards graded the same are the same.
A bad day in the life of a grader could have returned an 8 to a collector who, disappointed expecting a 9, decides to put it on the market.
If you track the market, overlooking all the eights of a card because you’re looking for nines, you could be missing out on great opportunities.
That’s why learning to value cards yourself and being able to distinguish between a “good 9” and a bad one, or a “great 8” from another that would never come back as one if you resubmitted it, will allow you to acquire collectibles in much better condition for a cheaper price.
Don’t buy a 9 just because a grading house says it is. Buy it because you truly believe the card inside really is (or, better yet, might even have a chance of being a 10).
2.4 Investment-Grade vs. Optimal Collecting Grade (OCG)
“Investment-grade rewards total rarity and top-pop; OCG rewards price-value efficiency. They don’t seek the same thing.”
| Focus | Investment-Grade (IG) | Optimal Collecting Grade (OCG) |
|---|---|---|
| What It Is | Top 10% in Rarity, Condition, and Demand. 1-3% in Speculative Stage collectibles. | The “sweet spot” just below the top-pop where the price jump skyrockets. |
| Goal | Preservation of wealth, predictable appreciation in 5-10 years; aiming for a safe-haven when the market matures. | Capture price inefficiencies in ≤ 5 years; tactical profitability more than wealth preservation. |
| Ideal Profile | Long-term investor with patient capital. | Dealer (rotating inventory quickly) and informed speculator; also pure collector who enjoys the piece but doesn’t want to overpay for a “10” with negligible condition difference. |
| Liquidity | Slower but deeper: there are always 2-3 global buyers willing to pay record prices. Though it depends on the macro state of the market. | More fluid; broader audience; smaller spreads that make rotation easier. |
| Key Risk | Overpriced entry; re-submissions that inflate the census or reveal hidden supply. | The “cliff” flattens by correcting this price inefficiency. |
| Pokémon Example | Charizard Base Set 1st PSA 10 / Rayquaza Gold Star PSA 10. | Charizard Base Set 1st PSA 9 / Shining Gyarados 1st Neo Revelation PSA 9. |
| Expected Return | 4-8% average annual in mature markets; low volatility. | High volatility; possibility of 0% or jumps > 50% in a few years. |
Profile Map
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Pure Collector → OCG if the “10” hurts the wallet but wants to enjoy a copy in practically the same condition.
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Long-Term Investor → IG to safeguard capital.
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Dealer → OCG as rotatable inventory.
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Speculator → OCG, but understanding the risk that the price discrepancy may correct or vanish.
Moral of the Story:
“Paying for a ‘10’ without a horizon of over 10 years is financing the party of the person who sold it. Paying for an OCG without understanding the timing is being the last one to get to the bar. Decide what role you play before you open your wallet.”
And remember, applying all this to collectibles in the Speculative Stage has its risks, and you should “tighten” the restrictions. Being conservative in these cases is never a bad thing.
3. Safe-Haven, Top-Pop, and Other Myths Floating Around Your Feed
3.1 Why Pokémon TCG Still Lacks ‘Safe-Haven’ Cards
In mature markets (pre-1933 coins, physical gold, blue-chip art), the term “safe-haven” means two very specific things:
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Low volatility even during market panic (2008, 2020).
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Deep liquidity: there’s always an institutional buyer or a long-term collector willing to pay “fair value” at any point in the cycle.
Pokémon TCG, just shy of turning 30 and still reeling from a couple of major speculative bubbles, is still in the speculative phase. Empirical proof?
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Charizard 1st PSA 10, the hobby’s icon, dropped ~60% from March 2022 ($420k) to September of the same year ($170k), only to start climbing again by over 50% in 2025 ($260k).
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Sales > $100k depend on a few global players, not an art fund or institutional money.
Until the hobby accumulates decades of stable data, a recurring auction ecosystem, and institutional buyers, no card— not even Pikachu Illustrator— will behave like a universal safe-haven.
That doesn’t make them less valuable; it just means we can’t treat them like gold bullion, a Picasso, or, speaking of collectibles, a T206 Honus Wagner or Action Comics #1.
3.2 Top-Pop: premio al ego, no al valor
Quick definition: Top-Pop is the highest certified grade for an item. If there are three PSA 10s and a hundred PSA 9s, the “10s” are the Top-Pop.
But watch out: While we usually talk about high-end examples when discussing safe-haven or Investment-Grade, ‘Top-Pop’ doesn’t always mean six figures. It exists at more affordable levels as well— a PSA 10 Pikachu Common can cost $150, while the 9 is around $40. The logic is the same: you pay extra to own the best-graded, even if the premium is measured in tens, not thousands.
| Myth | Reality |
|---|---|
| “Top-Pop is like the VIP section of a stadium” | Exclusive seat, watching the same play… at five times the price. |
| “Scarcity = Safety” | Only if the demand follows. Three fewer buyers, and the price deflates.** |
| “Top-Pop is a better investment than OCG” | Sometimes. If you buy at the top without a ≥10 year horizon, you’re speculating on status, not investing in value. |
Specific Risks of Top-Pop:
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Surprise Populations: New submissions or re-submissions can double the population overnight (Moonbreon PSA 10 +25% in 2024) or create new Top-Pops. Hulk #181’s 9.8s were Top-Pop for a long time… until a 9.9 showed up.
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Narrow Liquidity (in organic or high-end collectibles): You need the next whale collector willing to pay the premium; if they don’t show up, you’ll have to lower the price.
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Emotional Premium: You’re paying for the privilege of showing off, a markup that isn’t always recoverable when you need to sell.
Quick Conclusion: Top-Pop is champagne; OCG is good wine. Cheers or invest, but don’t confuse every toast with an investment.
3.3 Mini-checklist: 6 Questions Before Paying the Top-Pop Premium
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Is it an organic collectible? This is the first and most important question. If not, it’s probably a very common card in high POPs, always available in the market. High prices are often driven by fleeting trends with few fundamentals.
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Is the horizon ≥10 years? If not, it’s probably not an investment, but a gamble. If you see your Top-Pop as a “retirement plan” or family heirloom, you might be on the right track (depending on the type of piece we’re talking about). If you see it as a “cushion in case the car breaks,” beware: better rely on Optimal Collecting Grade or keep cash on hand.
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Is there an OCG with a reasonable spread? If the grade difference is hardly noticeable to the naked eye, but the price multiplies fourfold (or more), think twice: most of the satisfaction will likely be in the OCG, and the risk, in the Top-Pop.
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Is the POP stable in the last 24 months? Growth > 10% is a red flag. If the “10” census grows quickly, the scarcity premium will dilute, and the price will compress.
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How many public Top-Pop sales were there in the last year? Zero or one doesn’t mean “market,” it means anecdote. Real liquidity = the ability to sell without discounting by 30% to tempt the next buyer. Without transactions, value is driven by luck, not statistics.
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Are you buying the card or the label? Check centering, foil, edges… and decide if the “10” is worth it. When you try to sell, the next collector will look at the same defects. A “weak 10” negotiates like a “strong 9,” and the premium evaporates.
If your goal is long-term enjoyment, pay for the card; if it’s to show off today, pay for the label. Just make sure you don’t confuse one with the other.
4. Conclusion — Where to step and where to lift your foot
Safe-Haven: There is still no “gold bar” of cardboard in Pokémon TCG. Neither Illustrator nor Charizard 1st PSA 10 meet the dual condition of low volatility + institutional liquidity today.
Top-Pop: Great for the ego and the photo. Fragile if you need to exit before ten years, if you choose mass-produced scarcity, or if the POP grows. You pay for status, not necessarily value.
Optimal Collecting Grade: The middle lane where the collector, dealer, and tactical investor can coexist. Lower premium, higher rotation, and, if well chosen, almost the same visual satisfaction.
Three steps before hitting the “Buy Now” button
1. Define your role and your horizon.
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Collecting for enjoyment? → OCG is usually enough.
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Shielding wealth for 10-15 years? → The most consolidated Investment-Grade pieces at best, remembering that Pokémon TCG has no safe-havens and the hobby is still in a speculative stage.
2. Turn on the market light.
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OCG/Top-Pop spread ≤ 4 ×, stable POP, at least three public sales a year (speaking of high end and organic collectibility) → green.
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Any red light → recalculate or wait.
3. Buy the card, not the label.
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Magnifying glass in hand: centering, surface, edges and corners.
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If the appearance doesn’t justify the grade, not even the best label will hold when it’s time to sell.
Final pocket rule:
“If you need to show off, pay for Top-Pop; if you want to sleep, buy OCG; if you’re looking for a safe haven, wait for the hobby to mature.”
Let’s meet in the comments. I know that trying to apply to Pokémon TCG, all the principles and theories usually implemented in more mature and older collectibles can be challenging.
But I hope this guide has made you think about its key points and that you can use them when collecting.
If you enjoyed the content, remember to leave a like. 
That way, more people will be able to read it. Thank you, and let me read your thoughts.
the silent burden