I have been watching the market closely for quite some years now, and recently one thing is interesting. PSA 10´s are all through the roof, no matter what generation. But PSA 9´s are far behind.
When talking about popular sets and popular Pokémon this applies as well. Cards like the original Eeveelutions (Vaporeon, Jolteon, Flareon) sell for big numbers in PSA 10, but in PSA 9 hover around 500.
To me, this doesn´t seem logical. I understand that the psychology at this moment favours the best of the best, but it seems too much. The topic is written as a question, but it´s more of a retorical one. I think the PSA 9´s are overlooked. It´s not like they are abundant. They often are sub 1000 POP as well.
Pokemon fans have not needed to compromise on condition for the longest time. If you saved up a bit, you could mainly get a 10 of a card or 2 that you really like. Even if you needed to save for years, the card would still be there and probably be the same price (very different from today obviously).
Pokemon set cards are not particularly rare in the grand scheme of things and the oldest ones were made with essentially modern technology so a PSA 10 Pokemon card from the oldest set is not in the same universe as a mint sports card from the 50s.
You could say they are undervalued in the 9 range using the idea that with the surge of popularity, more people will be competing for the 10s that exist and thus some will be forced into the 9 range. The equation then needs to account for the size of the 9 population. And for wotc set cards, that’s a significant jump and it’s anyone’s guess if the amount of new fans can make a sizeable dent into that pop to the point where prices universally rise.
Those are just the factors imo that matter most. I’d personally wager that 9s go up a bit but in this market it’s hardly a hot take. I don’t think they scale with 10s as they maybe should, and I don’t think they ever will
For a big part, I think that is the case (mostly modern). But when it comes to vintage, these prices are not very abnormal. It seems pretty organic (for the most part).
I firmly believe a PSA 9 is a lot closer to a card’s actual worth. A nice bump from raw price just to get that quality assurance.
As discussed numerous times on this forum, PSA 10s and other grading company equivalents are just too inconsistent in grading quality to warrant a 5x - 100x price increase from a 9. The reason for this huge premium is usually a combination of hype, speculation, conditional rarity or a way to flaunt social status. In short: label chasing.
I mostly agree with this. Although there is a point to be made that the inconsistancy isn´t that much of a problem. The label becomes the product, backed by a company that has status.
The same thing goes for the rest of society, such as money. It can be a good thing for the hobby that these labels exist, because they give some sort of guarantee, not that the card is indeed gem mint (although they often are better looking, so the number does tell something), but that a trustworthy company has given it out and it is therefore real and scarce.
The problem with this argument is it’s not scarcity but conditional rarity that we are dealing with. Scarcity would be more appropriate for something like a Design Contest or Art Academy card where the total number of cards ever produced is 100 - 200.
In comparison, all a low pop PSA 10 card indicates is that it’s hard to grade (or isn’t worth grading, like a random reverse Lopunny). Unlike the scarcity examples above, if someone wanted to own a Neo Genesis T17 Typhlosion, they are not forced to spend 5-6 figures on a copy for a 10 when hundreds and thousands of copies exist in lower grades (between unlimited and 1st edition).
It’s as you said before, the label is the product. I say this too as someone who only collects PSA 9/10 cards. Often times the 9 is more than enough because I’d rather spend $200 for a marginally-worse-but-still-near-flawless copy than $20,000 for a “perfect” copy that if re-graded would probably come back a 9.
I’m biased given I’m trying to finish up a PSA 9 1st Edition Base Set (I need 4 more cards.. check my WTB!)
With that said, I do think PSA 9’s are undervalued. One thing that always stuck with me is that PSA 9’s in general are likely the most over-inflated pop reports due to crack and re-submits. I imagine the true number of PSA 9s in generally lower than what the census is showing.
I’ve of course no way to quantify this, but it’s just something that always has been in the back of my mind when I scoop up some PSA 9’s
Theres really no difference between an 8 and 10. The premiums demanded for the 10s are kind of ridiculous too. They should grade on a 1-5 scale, i dont believe in their standards or consistency and every grade is subject to bias of whether or not the grader had coffee or got laid the night before. It shows in some cases…
They can be amazing additions to a collection at a very solid price. Growth will likely be slow and steady and not subject to the high variance swings you see in modern. But don’t expect to make big returns on a PSA 9 WOTC holo
There are definitely inconsistancies, but given the amount of cards PSA is grading, I think that is unavoidable. In general, a 10 is still better looking than a 9 ect. I also think that the premiums, if the grade is higher/more rare, are justified.
Probably true, but I do think the ´logic´ says that a low POP Eeveelution (for example) at 500 in a 9 could very easily jump if the tide switches. If 10´s become unavailable, then it would seem like only a matter of time before people start looking at 9´s. But again, this may never happen.
To tell you the truth, I pretty much always go for 10´s, just to be on the safe side (unless we´re talking cards like double holo´s where a 10 either doesn´t exist at all, or is completely out of reach).
