How many base set boxes are left?

[Pbali]

@zorloth

Why do I think this is a reasonable assumption? For one, it’s because there were tens of millions of boxes produced. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that there were 10 million boxes produced (which should be a conservative, uncontroversial estimate given the fact that multiple billions of Base Unlimited cards were produced, a large portion of which were distributed in booster boxes). 10k boxes is 1/10th of 1% of the total print run. That means that for every 1000 boxes produced, at least one box was kept sealed. Common sense leads me to believe that at least 1/1000 boxes produced remain sealed.

I think that this is common sense given the fact that the market for Base Unlimited boxes was saturated for over a decade after release. Even in 2010, you could purchase Base boxes for $100. This, to me, indicates that a significant amount of product was kept sealed. In order for a box to remain at MSRP for over a decade after release, the product must have been overproduced relative to demand.

This is an inductive argument. So I’m not trying to “prove” anything. I’m just establishing why I think it’s likely that there are >10k boxes left.

I wouldn’t say 10 million is conservative at all. If we go by this thread: www.elitefourum.com/t/an-elaborate-attempt-at-print-run-estimation-wip-5-8-18/20273/1. Then we can assume 12 billion cards produced by 2001. If we take your 10 million box number then 1/3 of all cards produced were base set unlimited boxes up to that point (11 cards per pack x 36 packs per box x 10mil = 3.96 bil). Given just how many other products were produced it doesn’t seem likely to be the case.