I’m talking specifically about people choosing to spend stimulus money on pokemon cards, in relation to your scenario of it would affect prices if they all the sudden stop getting stimulus money given to them.
Think about someone that likes to play lottery scratcher tickets. Going into it they are looking to win that $1,000,000 jackpot- and clearly ok risking/losing the $20 to play. So they drop $20 on a ticket and all they win is another free ticket. Whats more likely: They cash out and break-even or put it back into the machine?
Someone putting their $1400 stimulus check into a box clearly is ok not having that $1400 to begin with. So if it goes down to $1000, why would they cash out on a $400 loss? If they’re mentally OK without the $1400 anyway, why not ride it out?
We get that you dont believe in Evolutions as a future stabile set, but it makes sence that people wont sell now. Most flippers has dumped it, and you will not see this set getting flipped like before. Those who bought in, is in it for the long run.
My advice is just don’t be overleveraged, be willing to lose what you put in and don’t think ‘prices can never fall’, hopefully it doesn’t come to that. However I’m quite optimistic about all sets this year!
I can’t predict either side mate We as humans act irrationally and that’s what I’ll accept! How do you know everyone who bought evolutions is in for the long run - I can’t figure out how it’s possible to determine that?
In my opinion I don’t think any set is stable right now mate, we need a few years to see stability at least lol
I think you’re right about not leveraging more than you can afford to lose.
That’s exactly why I don’t think stimulus checks will result in any retrace if they stop coming in.
The people even thinking about spending that money on cards already didn’t need it. So they are leveraging it on investments. It wouldn’t make sense to ever sell it a loss.
Have you not yet realized that this thread is just a place for people invested in Evolutions boxes to reassure each other that Evolutions boxes are safe, stable, and reliable investment vehicles? I’ve long since realized it, so I’m honestly not sure why I’m even bothering anymore lol.
It sounds so logical that people wouldn’t sell at a loss and maybe that’s how you would act as a logical person. But you will be surprised man, and as people we aren’t always logical and we act on emotion a lot of the time.
Many people, if they see their investments go down they will not hold onto them in fear that they are going down more, even if it is an all rounded sound investment. Very few people have such strong stomach’s to weather the storm - these are sometimes the big winners. I saw the same thing happen with WOTC when it retraced there was panic selling and great deals to be had, now those deals are disappearing.
Markets are known to be irrational (i.e not logical), another argument is that when stimulus checks stop coming in people will sell their collectibles to pay for their bills if they have lost their job, look at the unemployment rate. Not saying they will go down but it’s just an argument that goes against further rises, but there are too many factors to play and it appears the factors contributing to rising prices appear more right now in my opinion
lol I see this same speculation that “X is going up because of stimulus checks!” for stocks, sports cards, and Pokemon.
After the first stimulus checks were sent out, prices continued to rise and keep rising across the board even months later. That first check couldn’t have lasted that long to keep prices rising many months later. Therefore I think the impact of newest stimulus checks on Pokemon will be negligible.
Crazy high demand combined with the 25th anniversary will keep the strong price momentum going throughout this year. I think new higher lows will be formed likely across all sets after 2021.
This isn’t a thread for collectors. It’s a thread for people hellbent to confirm to themselves and others that Evolutions is . I mean, there was someone recently on this thread who said, without a hint of irony, that Evolutions boxes will be 5 figures. And now people are trying to argue that Evolutions boxes can’t decrease in value. At this point, I’m not even sure what to say.
People seem to want to live with the delusion that Evolutions boxes were $100 for 4 years and then, within a period of 5 months, went to $1000+ purely due to organic demand and having gone out of print. And further that the price point will sustain and continue to increase. And that’s fine – believe whatever makes you happy. My hope is just that low capital, casual investors don’t get snookered into this. It’s all fun and games until prices start decreasing.
The point of any stimulus check is to “stimulate” the economy. The hope is that it kickstarts the movement of money and eventually feeds itself from there.
This thread is a place for people ask questions and express ideas that allow for an understanding of what is happening with one of the fastest growing modern box is Pokemon history.
As with anything on the internet it will be rife with hypothesis and conjecture but it still serves as a helpful tool to look back and realize the history of the box.
Ok who bought this for $1000.00? Were you happy with your pulls? I just don’t understand how this box is going up in value while the singles are still relatively low.
I think evo buyers at this exact moment in time are comprised of speculators and others who hope the expected value of their pulls might be greater than the box once graded. In a few weeks, the market might expand to include people who haven’t seen cards in 20 years and are shocked by the price of base set boxes.
Money is in the grades, most holos are still around $5, but those that are graded at 10 can easily go for over $500, and of course graded charizard will get you at least 5k
Re: last pages people arguing about selling evo at a loss. I am making no predictions on price movement, simply stating facts about the situation and I’ve made this same argument with respect to WOTC boxes, graded cards or anything really. Prices can fall, even significantly without a single person selling at a loss. Much product has been transacted at $150-$1,000 per box, but I would wager that most product out there has a cost basis well under $100 per box still.
Because of that… prices on Evolutions boxes could (not saying will) fall 80% without a single person selling at a loss. I still own several boxes that I have under $100 cost basis in. I sold all the way up, most boxes unfortunately in the range of $400-$500 per box, but I have also sold a couple in the $800-$1,000 range. These were all sold at extreme profit. If and when prices dip to $800, $600, $400, even $150 any box I decided to sell would be sold at a handsome profit for product acquired at sub $100 per box less than 6 months ago. There are hundreds if not thousands of cases of Evolutions out there owned by people with a cost basis of under $100 per box. Many of them are business with plans to simply sell on a relatively fixed schedule of market price regardless of what that market price is. Surely they love selling product at $1k per box that they otherwise would have been happy to sell at $500 or $200 or $125 per box as they historically have done.
It’s one of the primary reasons why it’s VERY risky to buy something that has recently spiked. There are plenty of people wanting to sell them at $1000, and if they retrace there will still be plenty of people wanting to sell them at $200. Results in sudden, large downward momentum if a retrace happens.
In your scenario, “there are plenty of people wanting to sell them… at $200” even after they are selling for $1100+, then why didn’t they already sell when they were first $200…or $300, or $400, or $500, or $600, or $700, $800, $900…?
If they didn’t retrace when the market was flooded with everyone unloading their low cost basis product/happy to make their $200-$500 sale, why would they retrace now that they’re in the hands of collectors with high-cost basis making them less likely to sell?
@pokenoob Answering those. First from my own perspective then from the perspective of a larger business.
I don’t personally own a position large enough in Evolutions to make my own answer extremely applicable, but for me I sold all the way up. I had intended to sell over 2-5 years a very slow fixed rate (and expected at 2-5 years these boxes being about $250 lol) at market price regardless of what that market price was. Two things happened that caused me to liquidate 90%+ of my position faster than I had initially planned. 1. Opportunities arose where I could use the money better elsewhere and 2. the price shot up so fast it was a much larger profit much faster than I had anticipated so I was very happy to take it.
I think you overestimate the average cost basis out there. Nobody has any way of knowing, but I feel quite safe in saying that the median cost basis is still distributor level sub $100 per box pricing. I could be completely wrong on this especially due to the fact that many people who had planned to sell slower may have expedited their plans as I did due to the crazy sharp price increase.
Putting myself in the shoes of someone like DACardworld who very well could have 100 or 1,000 cases left I would say that they are a business who focuses on turning inventory over moreso than speculating on long term price prospects. If/when the market price on these falls to $500 they are still making money hand over fist I think many would just continue to sell happy to sell at market prices. This has been my strategy on clearly bubbled prices like base unlimited charmander. I sold some at $500 plus and I’ll be selling some at $200 or $50 in a couple years because my cost basis in all of them is the grading fee and even $50 is a nice profit. 2. above from my own perspective applies to businesses here too.
Whatever the case Evolutions is proving to be a very fascinating case study that I will follow with some interest in the coming years. I made good money off it that allowed me to leverage into greater opportunities even though I missed the final 2x (so far).
PSA 9 Base Unlimited Charizard was $1500, went to $2000, then $2500, then $3000, then $3500, then $4000, and then retraced back to $1500. There are still plenty of people wanting to sell it post-retrace. Why didn’t they sell when it was originally at $1500 or when it was $2000 or $3000 or $3500 or $4000? I don’t know, ask them. All we know is that there are still plenty of sellers post-retrace.
As gottaketchumall pointed out, most boxes are NOT in the hands of people with high cost-basis. Most people who own boxes likely bought them for <$150 each. These were available for <$100 each for 4 years. They have only been above that for half a year. Only a minute percentage of people who own Evolutions boxes had a cost-basis of $500+.
