Did you miss the rest of my post lol? This box has two values, the part out value (minimum, $21,800, probably closer to $36,000) and the intact value (??, but necessarily >= part out value). $14k / 36 is $400/pack for an unweighed long crimp. I have no doubt these would move at $800/pack very quickly and would provide a quick 2x return if parted out. Of course, historically speaking, that number is only going up over time, so just sitting on the box for several years isn’t a bad idea. If someone has one to sell, I’ll outbid qwachansey at $14,001 if they want to sell one to me 
shadowless is still pretty niche. shadowless booster boxes are not the most obvious to pick out, so people are wary and do not have confidence in the boxes. the price reflects this uncertainty and variation. i would pay 20k for a shadowless box with all the attributes of a “guaranteed” shadowless box, and gladly more if it came from a confirmed case.
my dream is to open a shadowless box, then grade all the holos and rares.
The confidence is a big issue. The niche can be helpful when you want your collection to stand out. At the end of the day Skyridge boxes are awesome, I lvoe the set, but I probably see a dozen a day on Instagram.
So $800 pack…so what do you value my 3 shadowless long crimp blisters at? At least $800 then? A guaranteed holo heavy pack went for $1075 recently. Bottom line…nobody underhanded shadowless valuations and its one reason it continues to lag behind.
That $800 is for the unweighed pricepoint, which comes with all the conditions I mentioned earlier. As far as I’m aware, there haven’t been unweighed sales of long crimps since pokemonrevolution (I’m bad with time, I’m thinking that was 1-2 years ago by now), but my exposure to pokemon news is limited so maybe someone knows of a long crimp box break more recent than that.
Selling a bare long crimp on eBay, far removed from its box opening, equates to it being a light pack. Like I said earlier, these are going to command much less value than an unweighed or heavy pack due to the very low expected value. At that point you’re selling to pack collectors, so things like pack condition become more important. There are recent sales of long crimp light packs for $600, which is much higher than their expected value of graded cards, but again now you’re dealing with pack collectors (at least, that’s my guess). Combined with pack collectors being incredibly niche, pack collectors (my guess) on average spending less on this hobby, and the nicheness of the pack variant means that while you might get a sale for $600, that may be only a couple times a year, if that.
Shadowless light packs for $600? Man I’ll have to see what Long crimp shadowless blisters will for then…
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Are people really willing to pay $1K for a unweighed shadowless pack? I don’t think this is at all realistic.
A heavy pack might value around $1k to an extremely zealous collector, but a guaranteed light pack is worth less than $250 IMO.
So assuming 12/24 (heavy/light split) that might yield $12k in heavy packs and $6k light packs… break even total of $18k.
Why would anyone want a light shadowless pack for more than $250? Sum of the contents is probably $50 for raw mint shadowless non-holos. And the only shadowless rare worth grading (PSA 10 Shadowless Dragonair) is worth $125-150.
I love shadowless and I don’t see the valuation anywhere close to 22k-36k.
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Almost two months ago, a 3-pack (Blastoise x2/Venusaur) of long crimp blisters sold for $1450 (full price, not b/o) in under an hour.
$500 for a Long Crimp Shadowless Blister sounds good.
$500 for a unweighed shadowless pack from a reputable source would probably sell quick too, but $500 x 36 is $18k… LOL
I think you should be thinking about the value of the box in terms of 36 unweighed packs, not breaking out between heavy and light.
The sum of the contents in all light WOTC packs aren’t worth anything close to what the pack is worth sealed. I agree that I don’t know why anyone would pay more than $250 for a light shadowless pack unless it’s a collector who specifically wants it for collection
But in terms of valuing the sealed booster box and 36 unweighed packs, Pokémon revolution sold out at $600/pack almost two years ago and he would sell out again in a heartbeat on his YouTube channel right now at $600/pack. And if he bumped it to $700/pack then that’s over $25,000 valuation. I think he could easily make a case for $750/pack and that’s $27,000.
I have no skin in the shadowless sealed game so I’m not trying to push up the valuation on this thread. But the realistic price of 36 unweighed packs coming from a reputable source is whatever people are willing to pay. And I’m fairly positive rev can cash in approx $25,000 for a box right now
Would I pay over $250 for a light short crimp Shadowless pack? No. Are there sold listings on eBay over $250 for short crimp packs that are not only very likely light, but the seller could know they are Unlimited as well? Yes.
It may not be logical from a pull perspective, but neither is paying $400 for a light skyridge pack. We’re past the point when pack buyers are expecting to break even. When packs get to this price, I assume any listing on eBay not by a reputable seller of loose packs described as “unweighed” has been weighed at some point in its lifetime and confirmed light.
I like collecting pack art sets so I don’t really care if my 4x packs of whatever set are unlikely to contain a holo… That may explain higher prices.