Crazy Market

[festa]

Ah yes, my PSA 10 Masaki Gengar

Oh wait, sorry I thought that was a 10 –

OH WAIT actually sorry, here’s the 10!

Glad the other grades are still reasonable

(I’m being hyperbolic, but you are making a blanket statement about lower grades that isn’t true. Gold stars, crystals, shinings, masakis, and many other corners of the market are unattainable for most people now in any grade. I’m simply fortunate to be in a position where I can leverage other sales to pursue larger goals – if I was entering the hobby now, I too would be priced out of many of these cards. Whether it’s intended or not, the tone of your messages comes off very smug.)

Most people in here don’t care that their cards are now worth $x. Most of us were engrossed by the chase that comes with collecting, but for many, the current market conditions have completely eliminated that chase. I think that’s kind of what @brendantheclayboy is getting at with their point-- they were working towards a goal, but that goal has been swept out from under them without any rhyme or reason.
Markets don’t need to be rational, rather, they’re immeasurably irrational at times. However, there’s no real price elasticity to be seen. The numbers just keep going up. People’s scepticism stems from the fact that it’s happened arbitrarily without any proper impetus – the Illustrator has very little bearing on many of the cards selling at these record prices. Generally speaking, trophy prices have more or less plateaued also.

[festa]

I’ll add to this-- I’m aware the recent SSB/Pika trophy sales were quite strong, and I think there is room for growth for a lot of trophy categories (if not all currently), at least relative to the current market conditions. I wouldn’t be surprised if people currently collecting these set cards turn their attention to trophies next and we see a significantly incline in prices there also. For 99%+ of people in the hobby, this will change nothing as they were already unattainable so we’ll likely see less resistance/discourse around it.

I think many people just don’t view set cards-- no matter how old – as being worth the prices they’re currently demanding. I’m largely in the same camp that just because something has a holo does not mean it should be worth $10k+. I can understand the Masaki set yielding something in that range for 10s due to the corner holstering damage, but commanding prices 5x over AA cards is insane (and no, I don’t think that AA cards should inherently be 100k just because Masaki Gengar hits 90k – although I would respect $50k for the Pikas that recently went for 20k – I see and agree with you on that, brother @xliveandplay).

[RoyalOak]

Other grades

Honestly I think that graded card collectors have no business complaining about the price hikes. I know this sounds harsh again and people will quote it but collecting graded is already sort of etilist in nature. The examples you mentioned have relatively speaking extremely low populations in high grades. You know that only a few select hundred or whatever can ever own that specific grade and you want to be part of it. The financial factor and competitiveness was always a factor here, obviously not to this extend but it was there. Collecting graded was and is competitive. There is simply not enough graded cards for everyone, vintage that is

Nobody of us grew up collecting slabs as kids, so I do feel for the binder collectors who don’t have the means to further collect right now but if you wanna go for 8s 9s and 10s highest end vintage you shouldn’t be whining

[emolga_pachirisu]

Whining about the prices hike up of psa10s slabs is the same as saying Gosh I hate the stock market now, Nvidia is so expensive !

You should have bought Nvidia early, why complain that it is expensive now, it’s ridiculous

[Gstiess]

I really don’t like to bring up old discussions into current ones and please don’t take this personal, but statements like this make me think that you are not really interested in an honest discussion. We had a very similar discussion a couple of weeks ago, where we talked about the extreme price hike of some Common/Non-Holo cards and you said this is actually great because people are now collecting the cards for the art:

日本のマーケット部分 The Giant Japanese Market Thread

Strangest ? i would say healthiest ! it means people are really starting to collect for what the cards where intended for : the art and the collect them all. To me it seems that is the sign of a new step in the hobby’s maturation that people do not mindlessly chase for only charizard anymore. Like this card: [image] it’s super expensive now. it’s just a common right, but fukuyama’s art makes it one of the best psyduck. People being able to recognize something is awesome means a healthy and m…

Me and some others then showed a lot of examples of Non-Holo set cards (of WOTC sets, which you claim are “super cheap”) that 10-20x in price in the last couple of months, where cards that previously went for 5-20 EUR are now between 40-200 EUR. You basically ignored most of those arguments (and never provided some data backing your arguments). You then ended the discussion with the following statement:

日本のマーケット部分 The Giant Japanese Market Thread

i think you should stop using raw as the foundation of your economics. Today’s market is driven by PSA10 and raw values are decoupled because the pace of it is so rapid. Beside we do not use the same marketplaces and region so there are inconsistencies that renders our arguments not productive

@festa than rightfully claimed why you even engaged in a discussion of a global Forum in the first place.

The funny thing is that one part of your argument is actually completely wrong because if I read your posts correctly, you are based in France so we are both in the EU which basically is the same market/region for Japanese cards.

So me and plenty other users provided a lot of arguments backed with data which you all ignored and now again and again you are claiming that “It is still cheap to collect most singles” and “wotc is super cheap”.

I am not saying that vintage was not undervalued one and a half years ago, compared to (ultra) modern it certainly was. But when people are having legitimate arguments that some price increases are not normal and seem completely unorganic (and therefore are driving long-time collectors out of collecting cards), just ignoring them and saying things like these

Crazy Market

Whining about the prices hike up of psa10s slabs is the same as saying Gosh I hate the stock market now, Nvidia is so expensive ! You should have bought Nvidia early, why complain that it is expensive now, it’s ridiculous

does not add a lot of value to any discussion in my opinion. Again, this is really nothing personal and having different opinions is completely legitimate. But if you have them, it is great to back them with arguments and data and not just ignoring the arguments others are making and repeating the same things again and again.

To finish this up, maybe this is helpful: @Cerulean had a great response with very well written arguments back when I brought up the prices of VS. This is how I think a productive discussion looks like:

日本のマーケット部分 The Giant Japanese Market Thread

@Gstiess @decoypalmette Re: Japanese VS To be fair, Japanese VS sat for years with virtually no movement. Even during the 2020-21 boom, those cards barely budged. I’m not saying their price should have doubled overnight (but pretty much everything has the last six months or so), but I fully understand why they are increasing. They may be set cards, but they aren’t readily available like Base Set, they are Japanese exclusives (aside from Tyranitar Half Deck, which has VERY rare English varian…

Edit: had to change the Link as the posts were moved

[emolga_pachirisu]

Well if you read right you can see that I was the first one to say it and that I was in fact the one who was right : PSA10 prices in the current market are decoupled from the rest. Only now people are realizing it. (Not to say it is right or not due for correction)

[Gstiess]

Don’t get me wrong, but you again proved my entire point that you don’t really seem to be interested in an honest discussion. Not even half a day ago you claimed it is “still cheap to collect most singles” and “wotc is super cheap”.

Crazy Market

Well if you read right you can see that I was the first one to say it and that I was in fact the one who was right : PSA10 prices in the current market are decoupled from the rest. Only now people are realizing it. (Not to say it is right or not due for correction)

@brendantheclayboy already gave you a very detailed breakdown that this simply is not the case and I referred to basically the same discussion (again, about Singles that used to be cheaper and completely exploded in price), which you again simply ignored.

And by the way, you defintely are not the first one that claimed/realized that PSA10 cards are having a extremely high Premium compared to PSA9s (and others). People, also here on this Forum, are saying this for months. And I also never disagreed with this statement but this was never the main point of the current (and past) discussion.

Edit: had to change the Link as the posts were moved

[emolga_pachirisu]

okay explain this to me (in all honesty), because i don’t track english wotc so I might have missed something
https://www.ebay.com/itm/358265931800
this is a wotc charizard right ? i dont know much about this card so it could be fake, you tell me. More or less like the one that sold around 960k at goldin’s auction ? ok so you can have this charizard, one supposed holy grail of pokemon collecting, albeit in a lesser condition, for “just” 300$ ?
not to say 300$ is cheap, but you can have more or less the same charizard for 1/3200 of the price. i mean in the grand scheme of things, this doesn’t seem excrucingly unobtainable for the average folk
maybe i’m totally wrong but my understanding is that wotc is not rare and had big print runs

[brendantheclayboy]

@emolga_pachirisu

this is a wotc charizard right ? i dont know much about this card so it could be fake, you tell me. More or less like the one that sold around 960k at goldin’s auction ? ok so you can have this charizard, one supposed holy grail of pokemon collecting, albeit in a lesser condition, for “just” 300$ ?

Many things here. One, this is a heavily played unlimited charizard. This is not a shadowless nor is it a 1st edition charizard. If you and the other guy were having honest debates hitherto, we could have agreed that chasing 1st edition (premium) cards is aiming for a stratosphere in of itself, a lofty goal in of itself than can be tamed to lesser goals. But again, I’m saying this is going all the way to the bottom rungs of the ladder.

And many binder collectors have been forced to collect heavily played cards. For many, it is not unreasonable to want to at least have lightly played cards, as often the creases and fraying corners are just not appealing to the visual display on the page. If this borderline damage condition charizard, which is unlimited, and to many base collectors isn’t even as desirable as shadowless, is $300, that is just for the charizard. That doesn’t factor the rest of the set. Where every other card, even the cheaper ones, is seeing much higher prices for even heavily played cards. And mind you, yes, $300 for a HP charizard is wild. ** Brings up memes from 2020 such as

when you find a played base set charizard in your bulk in 2019

When you come across it again in 2020

But when we’re talking about binder collectors collecting an array of cards, pages, legions, sets, all this, if the average card is even $50, significantly less than the HP unlimited charizard, that is the point you’re missing here. That’s fricking expensive as hell.

Let me illustrate more of my particular situation. In late 2024 early 2025, I put down the cards and shifted towards my business. I did this mainly because those last few cards were just so expensive and I just needed to continue saving and was not willing to sell something I had to cover it. I also was collecting dirt cheap mid era cards, since I had turned to those during the last boom (2021 to 2022) to feel the joy of collecting cheap, and had rather come to love them and their aesthetic.

Fast forward to about 4-5 months ago. I had done good with my business last year, upped the volume, worked towards personal goals, savings, and came back to an ebay tab after seeing warning signs on my E4, and saw that the 2 cards in question had doubled. They were already 4 figure cards. Ok, so that’s frustrating, but I’ll just keep my head up and turn to my cheap mid era car—oh, the cards that were just $5-15 a year ago are now starting at $25 and up to $150 on average, with the higher ones that were $100 (still relatively affordable for those few ultimate cards in any given set) now being $300-800.

Ok then… I guess collecting is just not as fun. At least as it is currenty.

[RoyalOak]

This is a card I randomly bought for 200$ in summer 2024. I have considered selling it a few weeks ago when it went to 3k because I do not collect rays as passionately but because I did not need the 3k urgently I have been procrastinating all the “work” with find a consigner and preparing a package and going to the office and declaring it for the overseas customs etc, ever since it did yet almost another 200%

What I mean to say is that this factor is maybe quite overlooked and also a partial reason for the up only dynamic. Cards are not as “liquid” as digital assets you can liquidate instantly with a fingertip. If i could sell the ray as quickly as I could sell my stocks I would have long done it. Other physical collectibles like luxury watches or say gold are also much more liquid. There is always multiple stores in every mayor city which pay close to spot instantly.

I bet there are plenty people with high end cards somewhere in bank vaults who just cant be assed to go through the process and that helps with the supply crunch or just simply people who are lazy like me.

Since people mentioned other assets here as comparisons: how many times does retail or even professional investors & traders act, sell & buy impulsive and emotional? Alot of times, most market volatility is build around emotions of fear & greed. People tend to trade back and forth quite alot of times trying to time the market but with pokemon it is simply not that easy.

You are “forced” to just hold through the price swings. I mention this because it may be a relevant dynamic for those people who bought cards specifically for investment purposes on r/pokeinvesting or wherever else.

[emolga_pachirisu]

Ok i understand better your viewpoint now
From my point of view, as I started in 2024 which was already in a boiling state, i had to fomo hard from the beginning because i had this intense sense of if i don’t get this now it will be a lot more expensive in the future and i will never have it. So the actual crazy situation is kind of the normal state of the hobby for me, what i always knew of it.
but i get it now, for an older collector, seeing little movement over period of years and years you might have developped this mindset of i have all the time in the world to get this shit done
i understand the frustration, although my internal locus of control prevents me from blaming external factors to my mistakes in judgment

[decoypalmette]

Dang you almost did it perfectly showing a bit of comprehension and empathy, but you had to edit in the “mistakes in judgment” thing I wont retract my like though, since I appreciate the effort.

What were the mistakes in judgment though? A lot of us were in college/school back then, and please consider that all this boom boom happened in a relatively brief period of time, with covid being a massive trigger (which was unpredictable). Like brendan said, the mindset used to be totally different.

In hindsight it’s easy to feel smart when you bought something that did a 200+% or more, but in reality nobody was expecting such a rapid shift in the hobby. Plus, only a fraction of people had the opportunity and financial freedom to buy the best cards, maybe in multiple copies + wait for a favorable confluence of events before selling.

I know you genuinely enjoy discussions, but sometimes it helps trying to read the room a bit, as people will then be more willing to interact with you in good faith.

[emolga_pachirisu]

Yeah sorry I edited afterwards because I had to be more precise in my thoughts.

Well if I start something and it doesn’t turn out the way I thought it would, I only blame myself, I don’t become bitter and have resentment over the market or investors or any external factors that prevent me from reaching my goal.
I only think, if only I had the foresight and made better judgment calls
This binder I can never complete, I think, what could I have done different because the truth is, I had control and I could have done things differently and reach completion
Thinking the future will behave like the past is a mistake in judgment, I don’t mean that in a harsh way, we all make wrong calls all the time.
I felt a lot of this bitterness, and not just frustration, on some posts, and so felt compelled to react

[kpod]

Can we get back on topic here and maybe move all of this banter to the Crazy Market threat? @fourthstartcg

[fourthstartcg]

Done. Just a reminder to keep discussions on track!

[jabby]

In my experience, the 10s for almost any card will typically move more ‘exponententially’ in price (in both directions) while 8s and 9s always move more ‘linear’ for the most part. I sold a couple 10s recently that I feel like I overpaid on originally for a modest profit. This is part of why I like owning a variety of grades and even raw/NM copies in binders because it’s nice to have more variety/quantity to me than sitting on a small hand full of gems.

Either way you can ride the market, but for me I sort of enjoy having a few binders full of my fav cards while also having some of my fav cards in a PSA 10, but of course every collector will approach things a bit different with all of these things.

Regardless, I’ve been sort out of the loop and this market is starting to look a bit crazy again. I also can’t believe how expensive my NM Masaki Gengar I bought in 2022 has gotten and many others I bought back then as well.

[xileets]

Indeed. Crazy market brings crazy polarity in opinions.

@RoyalOak has a point.

This is why we see K shaped recoveries, inconsistent rises across the hobby, and fits and starts of growth. It’s never just one thing or another, on the whole. Vintage JP is certainly up BIG, but NOT vintage JP packaging and extras, like coins, as they were during the covid boom.

[SagleCards]

I love this channel even though I do not collect sports cards. He has some great stories from his deals!

[sircharleszard]

[tidaldreams]

im sure these wont be used for nefarious purposes hmmm yes