I’m not a martyr, but people like yourself have an agenda. You contributed nothing to this conversation beyond derailment.
The conversation ended when you left the first time and I was more than happy to just read without “contributing” up until then. I commented on you leaving and it’s been a shit-show ever since. If you’ll get the closure you need out of this by claiming I derailed your post, then I’ll apologize for that as well.
Ok thanks, accepted.
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well, since I don’t think it has been said yet: welcome to the forum @rainbow ; sad to see you leaving so soon; oh, and welcome back again rainbow2! 
In all seriousness though: I like the analysis you gave with the graphs. It’s a well put together post, and although there was already an increase in the market (there has been ever since Pokémon GO was released in 2016 tbh), Covid definitely sped that up considering the amount of people that joined the forum lately and prices that have tripled or quadrupled in a matter of days/weeks (PSA-9 T17 anyone?).
I personally am someone who also makes my posts too long when a few words or sentences would have been enough for others, and I have the feeling you’re similar. You like to prepare your posts, and get nice feedback and likes back to them (at least, that’s what I would like). So when someone posts negative responses or counters some of your research, it’s natural to be annoyed a bit. But, sometimes other people do have valid points, and will only make the total picture of your posts and their comments as a whole better. At least, that’s how I usually see it.
I personally love to learn all kind of information regarding our hobby, and also share them myself (see some of the articles I wrote in the article section for example), so I hope you’ll stay in the community. Don’t let those small responses get to you. It’s good to respond to them, but if the conversation with one or two people starts to derail after going back and forth, I would simply state something as “let’s agree to disagree” and move on. Just my 2c, though.
Enjoy your stay! 
Greetz,
Quuador
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I’m glad you found it interesting. I think I will stick to light comments from now on.
I actually really enjoyed your 1st edition stamp variations article. So thanks for that. Also I appreciate your efforts to defuse the tension. Much appreciated.
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@rainbow, You are not in Kansas anymore;)
@quuador, you are NOT comparing yourself to anybody else. Your posts are amazingly insightful and delivered thoughtfully. You are always a gentleman. Everyone here thinks highly of you and you are deeply respected.
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Yes lol.
I wonder how many people recognize that reference;)
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I had just deleted that on seeing your response lol.
Oh yes, I remember watching the Wizard s of the coast OZ in my early childhood.
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Wow this thread has really (de?) evolved since I last checked it. EDIT: while I was writing my long post it all got better. Great!
Rainbow - I appreciate your original post and the time you spent putting together the data. I tend to think a lot of truth can be found in data. While it can be a predictive tool, it’s not absolute. There are too many unknowns to predict the future. I tried to point some if them out in one if my earlier posts in this thread. But the future is always uncertain. Take the stock market as an example of something that’s impossible to predict. There’s no need to be so upset about people disagreeing or having their own view. I sincerely doubt anyone here wishes you any ill will. I hope you keep up your presence here, but maybe keep it a little lighter too? As someone said, sometimes there’s no points in being “right” in some situations but there are almost always points for keeping your temper and being respectful.
We’d all do well to remember these can be trying and frustrating times. Not every day is easy depending on circumstances. Social isolation, professional frustrations, illness. We never know what someone could be dealing with. A little sensitivity all around wouldn’t hurt. Let’s not take ourselves too seriously, at least here. Last time I checked, this is a forum for adults to come and talk about their love and passion for Pokemon after all. Happy collecting day to all! time to check ebay and see how my latest offers are faring…
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So I think most of what was presented is some top-shelf financial analysis that we don’t often see in Pokémon… using words like “resistance” and “range-bound” gives me the impression that rainbow has done some sort of equities analysis before. I certainly appreciate this because it’s what I’m studying in school! I love crossovers.
I think extrapolating that the virus is the cause of the price uptick by using the empirical data may not be the best way to go about it. Pokémon cards and stocks cannot be equated for a few reasons. First, stocks are truly liquid whereas Pokémon cards are not. Unless I have a Warren Buffett-sized position, I can easily let go of a massive chunk of Apple shares nearly instantly. The market for large-cap stocks is incredibly rapid. Pokémon cards, on the other hand, take time to transfer. If I want to sell my PSA 9 Grand Party, there is not guaranteed to be a buyer within the first week for full market value. Additionally, the nature of it being a physical asset that needs to travel through the mail (barring some galaxy brain flipping by using the previous listing’s picture) causes even further delay between possible sales. The combination of the low frequency of trade and the cumbersome aspect of cards being physical items results in lag being created. I know some people here have said that they’re still waiting for international shipments that have doubled in price since they ordered them. The significant lag in the market can alter the trajectory of prices when compared to the way equities move. Additionally, these market cap metrics you’re citing have tracking error. Not every deal that occurs is accounted for because there is no central exchange or mandatory public information for Pokémon sales. Does any of this hurt your case in particular? In my opinion no, but they are reasons to be cautious of applying technical analysis to Pokémon cards.
What does, in my opinion, hurt your argument is the fundamental differences in why we choose to spend money on Pokémon cards vs. stocks. Nobody wants stocks because they like them. If I really love Disney, I’ll subscribe to Disney+ or go to Disney World. There is no inherent satisfaction from owning Disney shares. The reason I own Disney shares is because I expect Disney to do well financially and pay me my dividend. Additionally, I’m looking for an increase the value of the outstanding shares whether it be through favorable earnings, buybacks, or whatever. I buy Pokémon cards because I like them. Ultimately, unless the market is just made up of speculators, the reason these cards have value is because people want to add them to their collections. Many cards are rare in quantity produced and scarce in terms of availability on the market which again, excluding massive stakes in large companies, are not challenges you need to face for stocks. The emotional dynamic of wanting these cards and the nature of market availability drying up as the cards age and settle into collections cannot be equated to the projection that business will decline and earnings will nosedive and debt will be downgraded and dividends will be slashed due to the real effects of the virus.
Do I think the virus had an effect on the market? Sure. I’m bored as shit these days with nothing to do or spend my money on. Why not browse eBay and buy some cards? But at the same time, as others have pointed out, shit only started hitting the fan in mid-March in the US (I was kicked out of my college dorm on March 10th I believe) and the upward momentum apparently started a decent amount before then.
i don’t know if any of that made sense I am very tired but those are my two cents (or maybe two hundred dollars for how long this is)
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Hey, thanks for stopping in. The whole exercise was to look at what happened already. It doesn’t project, nor predict anything it just organises a view of the market in that snapshot in time.
I’m not upset about disagreements. In fact I welcome them, but I don’t wish to counter every person who disagrees just for the sake of it, without them providing any evidence to support or negate what the data indicates.
I have myself to blame. No-one wants to focus on the idea that the market is operating at unusual levels at the moment and that it might be prudent to look under the hood.
Again, thanks for stopping in.
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I think the data and the looking under the hood as you put it are great. Please don’t misinterpret. I’m very interested in these things! Clearly we are in unprecedented times.
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My response will be brief.
The coloured points match their answer:
I agree trust me, I know the constraints of liquidity. I haven’t expanded on it because smpratte just released a video on the subject and I didn’t want to look like I was starting something. I think it was in the money mega thread, where i said that this was the reason I don’t think Pokemon is in a bubblebathbathbathbath and that illiquidity is what will support the market from a “crash”. Though a retrace isn’t out of the question. Like after the Go Boom. We know it recovered fine after its retrace.
Some noteable differences to the Go Boom, though, are: stimulus injection, a further increased investment status, and a largely poorer economic backdrop.
It is a limitation of the data, true. However, we have two metrics to work with - both volume and total sales and they track together fairly well. The main point is the records are consistent enough that the error margin should be relatively small. We are talking about thousands of sales which is enough for a decent snapshot. It’s not perfect, but it will do.
Not all pokemon cards are held for personal collecting. There are a lot of flippers and a lot of collectors with excess stock. So while emotional attachment is a factor, it’s not the only factor. PSA is in the middle of being hammered with grading requests.
I do agree with the hobby growing over time. I posted this in another thread on my old account.
Click here to read.
Is it a bubblebathbathbathbathbath? – Probably not. Is it likely to retrace soon? We don’t know, but there is no reason why it can’t after having such an extraordinary run. Is that a bad thing? No. Is it a permanent thing? Unlikely. Pokemon TCG has an interesting economic trajectory with many stages where fresh money continues to flow into the hobby. I think prices will retrace soon once the dust settles with covid as the economy has really gone down the tubes and we aren’t feeling any of the pain as yet. But looking at the larger picture to post-recession: I’ve attempted to identify the stages both proceeding us and in our future, and as I see them as likely to occur, because overall-all I think prices will accelerate within the next 20 years, quite drastically.
Stage 1: The initial Pokémon release – Early waves of high volume and high demand for cards, the majority of which were used for their primary purpose: to play the game. Funding for cards came from: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts Stage 2: Pokémon franchise loses popularity - Less cards are printed and relatively few customers are interested in the game or collecting in comparison to stage 1. Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs (entry)
Stage 3: Nostalgia for Pokémon attracts old and new players and collectors into the fold - the popularity of Pokémon Go ignites loving memories and gains overall public acceptance, becoming cool again. This allows many adults to return to the hobby feeling comfortable in publicly expressing their love for the franchise once again. Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 4: As more adults return to their childhood hobby, the more the supply of collector grade product is absorbed - increasing demand and in turn prices. A lot of collectors during this period have conflicting priorities between family obligations (mortgage payments, kids and other associated expenditures) that may restrict the amount of money they would like to outlay for their wish list. Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 5: For many, the home will be paid off, the kids will be grown up and their lives may be slowing down. The parents of many collectors of whom initially grew up with Pokémon, will pass away which is an unfortunate but natural occurrence. Many of those original collectors in the hobby (of course, not all) will inherit money or valuable assets as a result of their parents passing, and having already settled into their later stages of life will have the ability to spend large amounts on cards that provide them with tangible nostalgia from their childhood. This influx of boomer inheritance will likely inflate prices in a wave that will make the current market cap seem as antiquated as the cards themselves. Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs, Inheritance.
The original view held by many was that the virus had no effect on the market and that it was all organic growth.
Anyway, thanks for sharing, you highlight great points.
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Well said! I think this kind of post was needed.
I am uneducated compared to 90% of people in here. Thank you @rainbow for the graph as that information helped me see things I don’t personally want nor know how to track. The information was awesome as well as the input from everyone else in here. In the end, everyone is throwing in their best “guess” as it is impossible to know for certain what will happen. I think it’s rare and valuable that this community is willing to throw in graphs and educated responses to help all of us learn before we buy.
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I think you might’ve misinterpreted some of the responses you’ve got. Or I did.
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You, sure sound passive aggressive in your own posting as well.
It was - yes. I’ve already apologised to him. Sorry if I have offended anyone. If I could lock this entire thread and let it pass away, I would.
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I’m not debating this with you. People on here, on youtube, etc, have been voicing that many of them have been driven into purchasing various cards out of concern of being priced out if they leave it too long. It’s not conjecture. It’s not the only reason of course, but I have outlined those reasons, and yes I wrote it to get a point across.
I’m not responding to these types of comments anymore.
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Oh wow. You heard it from 4 YouTubers and a couple forum users.I deleted my comment. I’m not debating with you either. Youre good at putting together graphs. Your “deductive reasoning” isn’t too deductive.
If you couldn’t see the FOMO, that’s on you. Happy Collecting.