I thought it would be an interesting topic to discuss what others think. With the rising talk of negative interest rates in the up and coming financial crisis does anyone think that collectables such as pokemon, magic and sport could be see a push in prices as people look for alternative ways to store value?
The rise of crypto’s in 2017 impacted collectable prices. So it would be interesting to see if this would impact the market in an opposite way than a normal recession would.
As an Australian collector the weakness in the Aud is pushing the value of my collection to new highs so there is already an impact being felt.
Are there any investors looking at their collection in this light?
I think some people have talked about this on other threads.
In short, I think the lowest (bulk and cheap modern) cards will drop minimally, whereas I think anything in a large mid tier could suffer heavily. And then the very top tier of cards, probably generally $1,000+ could see substantial growth, particularly top promo cards.
Market prices always go up and down. It’s a cycle. That being said I personally don’t believe the next down cycle will be like the last. I think it will be more of a slight adjustment. Maybe 15%. Not 50%.
I don’t think that cycle will happen soon. The economy is strong and prices don’t seem inflated to me.
Also. The economy is tied to public opinion. Saying the economy will crash adds to a fear mindset which is what leads to the down cycle… Put positive energy into the world!!
That being said, if there is a dip. I’m buying real estate. Buying income earning assets is best way to increase wealth.
Disclaimer. All statements are my opinion. Feel free to disagree.
As long as there’s no administration change in the U.S. in 2020 the Pokémon economy will thrive for at least another decade. Otherwise, we could fall back to pre 2016 numbers…or even worse.
Negative interest rates are an overall bad thing for the economy, but since we are in uncharted waters, no one can predict what will happen. At some point, if the economy gets too bad, people may just start investing in time tested assets like gold, silver and land again and ignore volatile stores of value like cryptos, collectables and lamborghinis.
Despite that fact, I do understand your logic from a perspective of someone whose main currency is not USD.
I am in the UK where GBP has fallen over 25% since brexit started, but my collection keeps increasing in value as price discovery of graded cards happens mostly in dollars. This being said, it is not an actual price increase, rather a consequence of currency devaluation.
A card that used to be USD150 would have cost me GPB100 a few years ago, whereas that same USD150 card now costs GBP120. That doesn’t happen because the card went up in value but because my local currency dropped in value so I don’t see them as actual gains unless there is an actual increase in consumer demand and USD price to match the GBP increase.
This being said, I don’t think graded PSA cards would ever be a safe haven in any way shape or form, they are an awesome collectable and a store of value though so I would enjoy them for just that, the same way a wine collector enjoys his wine bottles for their uniqueness rather than their financial value.
If we are in such a dire position where a negative interest rate is implemented, I can’t see people going out and spending big bucks on collectibles besides the top top tier who can weather the storm.
