Hi E4,
What is the average number of boxes that shops (larger eBay shops/LGS) open so that there are enough individual cards(Singles) for their customers?
How many get opened to get a “Feeling” for a New Set?
Just over 11k packs should statistically give you all you need to know about pull rates and rarity 
8 Likes
sry i have trouble to formulate it right in english and when i reread it it sounds like i looking for rarity. question was what is the average amount of opened Boxes for LGS/Bigger Shops to have enough Singlecards ( espacially common/uncommon) for Customers.
How much inventory opened is considered enough to fullfill the needs of singles when having a LGS or a big ebay shop?
I wouldn’t consider them ‘average’ but TCGplayer and The Game Capital typically open around 8,000-5,000 packs. This is very large though, a regular LCS or eBay store would not need to open nearly that much.
1 Like
Most sealed product has a negative expected value (EV), suggesting that opening the box would lead to a financial loss - even if every card was sold at market price. Seeing this, large card stores need to find a healthy balance between selling sealed product (where the $$$ is) and selling singles (where a customer base and community can grow).
I would think that an average store opens between 10-20 cases (60-120 booster boxes; 2,160-4,320 booster packs) depending on the set and demand for singles. If a very large store is buying multiple pallets of product, I would assume that they’d open between 50% to 100% of one pallet (~250-500 boxes; 9,000-18,000 packs).
1 Like
I can only speak anecdotally here, but of the 3 LGS near me:
One doesn’t open any Pokémon product. Weekly league players exchange enough high-value singles (and donate their bulk they don’t want) that it’s much better to just sell the sealed product.
One opens ~2 boxes for singles. They’ve openly said that it’s usually a loss for them, but the owner likes opening the packs enough that it’s fine. This one doesn’t have many league players for Pokémon and mainly deals in Magic, comics, and Japanese imported magazines.
The last one opens ~5-6 boxes and is the largest of the three. I don’t go to this one very often since I’m not really a fan of the owner, but they tend to take in more product than they can reasonably sell.
All three of these stores are very small, mom-and-pop game stores that get don’t even get allotted a full case by TCPi. I’d imagine larger stores open much more product, but small town card shops just can’t afford to open a lot of product since the really money is in sealed.
3 Likes
I’m surprised they open any if they don’t even get a case of product.
In fact, I’m not sure why any store even opens for singles since there is a tiny window where you might be able to make back your money.
In the past it may have been OK but I think the wholesale cost has gone up to like $90 or something with SV.
There’s also money in opening products right at release and selling the singles at a higher price before they settle.
1 Like
Yes there is. And it’s a quick race to the bottom. Grading chase cards upon release is also a way to make some money back if they hit 10s.
Something like 11,664 packs? 
Wow, when did you change side? 
Yeah but the stock keeps replenishing on TCGPlayer, so these stores continue to open product.