It’s a triple sugimori stock art wombo combo
The most unfortunate side effect of this market is it’s conditioned people into believing buying at 3x what prices were a month ago is “getting a good deal” because “line keep going up forever”.
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Well, you can look at it like that. But I actually mean that these specific cards (not any card), just as their 10 counterparts were/are undervalued.
I have been buying a lot as of late. Mainly bulk cards or playable cards so I can make different decks to play at our shop. Enjoying the gameplay has opened my eyes to how cheap it can be to make a deck and have fun. I am still slowly working on sets but it gets overwhelming with all the prices.
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What I’m saying is the perception of cards feeling undervalued has become skewed in this insane market environment where doubling in price from week to week feels “normal”.
Like, yeah, $200 for a 1st edition PSA 9 holo from 2000 is still a reasonable price to pay for many vintage collectors, but it’s still a sizable increase within a short period of time. I don’t think it’s “black and white” thinking to pull back for a moment and say “whoa, is this kind of rapid growth normal and sustainable?”
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I agree with a lot of things you are saying. The thing is, that doesn´t mean that that´s always the case ; )
I just look at the cards (such as the PSA 10 Steelix I already mentioned). If it´s 300, and I think that is very cheap, then I think it´s undervalued. The same goes for these 9´s. I think they are worth more.
Now of course, if Pokémon didn´t got this big, then 300 for a piece of cardboard, would not be cheap, but that´s another story. Pokémon is this big.
For sure, it’s going to be different for each card. I do think PSA 9s are weirdly disconnected from their PSA 10 prices. Although that may be more an issue with the premium people place on the 10 grade more than anything else.
Everything looks simpler in hindsight with present day knowledge. With the PSA 10 1st Edition Steelix example, that card sat in the $300 - $500 range for years. It’s one of the higher pop 10s in Neo Genesis for a less popular species (Steelix is cool tho) so the price reflected the demand in 2022 - 2024.
In today’s market conditions, it would seem insanely undervalued and buying at that price would be a no-brainer. However, expecting the same increase in the future can be a slippery slope as, in my opinion, there is a lot of inorganic growth, empty hype and outside forces (crypto bros manipulating a very immature market) right now that are contributing to the perception that cards selling at 5x - 10x their prices a few months ago are still undervalued.
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Many of the tier 2 pop 1000 chases high volume are seeing correction in the last 2 weeks (-20%)
They overshoot. I’m talking about cards like Pikachu pokekyun. It’s not showing in the upper category (5000$+) because they are auctioned less frequently (once every 2 weeks compared to like every day)
I interpret this as a sign of a pullback confirming soon
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But it isn´t hindsight. I literally said this a few months ago here, and bought them ; )
But yeah, I do see some of your points, but I also think you´re applying them too strictly. Just because these things are true a lot of the times (people use hindsight, think because something else tripled, this must do as well ect.) doesn´t mean it is true here. I´m gonna leave it at that. I judge a card on what I think, given how big Pokémon is, it should be worth. I don´t look at how much a card has appreciated.
The only thing I’ve been really consistent with the past 1-2 years is not buying any new release modern, which sucks since it has meant no ripping. I’d rather lose out on future gains than buy product with 3-5 years growth already baked into the market price. Feels like too much of a sucker bet and sheep behavior. I’d rather lose out and stick with my instincts which tells me to be patient and wait a little bit. Then again I am also older so my timelines are different than most here.
I have sold things I did not intend to because it feels foolish, irresponsible and selfish as a bread winner to NOT sell. Even then I left a lot of money on the table by selling too early first part of 2025 when my mostly vintage to SM era started to move and I put the money into quality of life options. And my philosophy is that taking gains is what you must do from time to time. Regretting 5-10x profits that could have been 50-100x is just a bounty of riches problem. What blows my mind is that rather than reinvesting gains into other assets or markets, we are already IN the market to move gains to (!) to so just holding has been the best play. Thank goodness I procrastinate sometimes. I believe churning modern to buy vintage, mid era and low pop and sticking to fundamentals is the way to go, but I was starting to doubt that idea with all the modern, low entry point hype dogs pushing modern beyond anything sane. Silly me.
True grails and trophies should be the next to pop off. While healthy, they have lagged in comparison. But as long as the interest (even if superficial) remains, awareness will come. Market manipulation remains a primary mover and chaos maker, so sound logic does not always rule the day.
For me, having 6-7 figure unrealized gains feels like a dangerous game to play when you know shiny cardboard does not carry more value than quality of life uses. Invest in yourself, those you love, life experiences and your health. And since money/more inherently valuable physical assets still feel “safer” for the future of my family than passing along my collection that could go to zero or at least much less than now, liquidation of a percentage of my collection is a given in my mind once prices get to a point
Last thought in this wall of self indulgent but hopefully not completely worthless text—I have said for years that if a 1st ed Base Charizard is a $150k to (the moon) card, why on earth is/was a 1st ed Neo Umbreon sitting at $5k and under? How is/was it not a $100k card? Probably a poor comparison since no set card can compete with a Base Lizard, but it showed me this hobby has some LEGS with room to run with most of you 20 and 30 somethings not even making real money yet.
If I’d only bought let’s say 5 of them, I could liquidate at price points on the way up and just hedge along for what was a pretty minimal investment for a middle age dude with some cash to spare. Now I’m not even sure I’d take $100k for it if I was offered that today. And I could do a lot with that money right now, but in 5-10 years how much money might be left on the table? A beach house worth? Or…nothing, sell now at $35k or $50k or whatever and go with the old “hookers and blow” no brainer zero regret outcome.
At the end of the day these are great problems to have, but for as many people who will benefit, there are those who will still get financially hurt—some very badly. “Buy what you love and don’t buy on credit” remains the best advice I’ve been given for those of us with average risk tolerances and others who are relying on us to not be loser jackasses.
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I’ve been buying, but ive been careful with what cards I purchased. Trying to find more value buys rather than making impulsive purchases.
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Right now buying for my PC is basically at 0. I am still buying cards to grade/sell.
In normal times, those cards I buy to grade and sell would see nearly all of the profits be put back into my collection, but I’m still grinding away for a house, so all extra cash is going towards that fund.
I’m also in the process of selling some PC items while the market is hot, so that I can buy when things cool down a bit. More specifically, I’m trimming a bit of fat in my graded singles and sealed collection in hopes of picking up some vintage sealed booster boxes in the future.
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I have for the most part completed my goals so not buying anything at this time.
Everything that I am not attached to is being sold. I believe that some cards will still climb up in the future but the price are already up so much that it doesn’t make sense for me (and feel selfish) not to sell.
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Still mostly buying, I have done a couple sales but I’m generally extremely slow to sell. Since some (read: most) cards have insane prices right now, I have been buying more items that are less TCG and more Pokemon in general that I like (phone cards, post cards, Tohoku sticker set, etc.) as well as cheap binder cards (cosmo holo promos, Komiya singles).
I will admit it is incredibly hard to sit on the sidelines and not throw some cards at a ZandG Auction block, I just really like my cards and don’t want to part with them 
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Still buying and selling, prices are high on both sides so it kind of evens out
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Im still buying for my PC but much less often and mostly sub $50 cards that I won’t feel bad about purchasing if prices retrace.
I’m seriously considering liquidating most of my ‘high end’ English graded cards then repurchasing them in a lower grade, raw, or Japanese and pocketing the difference. I don’t want to but the more prices rise the more appealing the option looks. Especially for PSA10s
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Always buying, always selling. Lately more selling than buying just because i buy something and before it reaches me its already gained 50%
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For months I’ve been selling PC cards and vintage bulk and buying higher end vintage graded cards. Still probably spending more than selling, but I’ve taken profit on a few japanese psa 10s just because I bought them so cheap.
Overall, I plan on holding the vast majority of my slabs for the long haul! I freaking love these cards and already had no problem holding through the last pullback.
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Doing a little bit of both.
Essentially what I would describe myself as doing is trading stuff which has gone STUPIDLY, absolutely bonkers overpriced for things which have only gone a little bit, absolutely bonkers overpriced.
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Still buying, lots of cards feel like strong purchases in this market. Loving buying modern ARs and other cheap stuff too. Lots of hype but I’ve had to alter my collection goals time and time again during booms so this one is no different.
Prices are so high that while I’ve mainly been selling extras, I’m considering selling some ancillary parts of my collection that aren’t part of my main goals. Moving that money into traditional investments or other priorities might make sense.
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