Generally, what I’ve observed is for Jungle/Fossil/Gym etc…prices have gone up so much there are so many “big” holos like e.g. snorlax and various other jungle cards that could be pulled, graded 10 and sold for $2.5k. That is base set 1st edition holo prices, but the box is more than 10x cheaper
We’ve seen pack openings for 1st base set holos as people take a punt…and some do make out with profits although slim.
But now we can buy a box that is 15x cheaper, and the holos seem to be only 2-5x cheaper.
So, does anyone have thoughts on which boxes could be profitable to open today? As that would bode well for future box prices which the efour community can start buying
It has been a while since any WOTC boxes were average net profit after opening. With some PSA 9 certain boxes are better outcome then others. Keep in mind the prices those Jungle holos Have such high prices primarily because of the difficulty obtaining PSA 10 even with cards straight from booster packs.
You’re comparing the highest PSA 10 example (Snorlax) in 1st Jungle to the lower end of PSA 10 1st base, not a fair comparison. The expected value of a 1st base pack is much greater than a 1st jungle due to the much higher price of rares, uncommons, and commons.
@jcincy101 has some good videos where he looks at the expected value of opening a box, which you might find interesting.
Go on the Z&Gemporium channel. He does some pretty good analysis breaking down the profitability of some of the boxes but overall, I would say no it is not profitable to do. Plus I think if PokeRev’s live box openings gain more popularity, I honestly think the whole aspect of opening boxes for easy profit would be eliminated since PokeRev is able to get extra value out of the box compared to the rest of us (ad revenue and he can sell each pack individually for an inflated price to his viewers). Last I heard he was thinking of doing even more box openings. Also, apparently the packs sell out within minutes of him listing them for sale. That’s how popular it is.
Well the issue is even if you think you’d break even on boxes with PSA 9s they are very hard to find these days and so if someone does the math and decides a box will have an average net profit they may not going to share that information to invite more competition for said already scarce boxes. I thought the gym sets were laughably undervalued Before all these rises so bought 2 of each But I did not post what a great deal these are until purchased.
If there are any boxes that are profitable to open at any point, the market won’t take long to correct. Besides, long-term, the box will likely grow at a higher rate, or at least the same rate as the high end singles in PSA 10; Almost no booster packs are ever profitable (anymore) to open based on expected value.
Possibly Japanese modern or vintage. I havnt crunched the numbers but at least the pull rates are amazing. A Holo in every pack or every other depending on what set. But for that same reason it keeps value low because of increased pull rates and great quality. The one main factor I see some opportunity is the fact that not everyone can easily get Japanese product. Might not speak the language or using middle men can seem daunting not to mention customs and them possibly opening the box before you recieve it. Overall that might be the only answer for now at least. I do know as a collector if I was going to open anything it would be Japanese even tho I have no Japanese cards currently. I’d just hate spending let’s say 20 grand for 2 1st edition fossil boxes and get stuck with a million non holo’s and only 24 actual pulls with abunch of them probably being doubles or possible print lines depending on set. And that’s just one set. Can you guys imagine the cost of opening every wotc box to complete just 1st edition holo sets alone. What’s that a million bucks plus. Edit and for the PSa 10 collectors. What would be the cost of opening every wotc box to complete PSa 10 1st edition holo sets. A unthinkable amount of money haha. I know opening packs is for fun generally but crunching these numbers is crazy
After doing that series on all 1st ed boxes, Neo Genesis was the only one that had a “possible” chance at breaking even on opening a box. Right after I did that video though the price of the box went up $4,000 so it is now in the same boat as the rest…average of 30%-50% loss on nearly every box opened (and that’s before grading fees).
@jcincy101 As a numbers guy I like those videos. I really like the one where looking back at 2018 sales and the prices you sold them for compared to today’s rates. I know it’s painful to make for you but makes amazing content. You should possibly consider a few more like those. I really enjoyed it myself
@jcincy101, like the videos as well. my only thing about them is that for your expected values, you do not take into account the PSA 8 value and unfortunately when opening packs it is something that needs to be considered since you do not know about print lines and centering before the packs are actually open. More and more you are seeing pack fresh cards coming back as 8s due to those two factors.
I opened 3 1st edition Jungle boxes and got a total of 3 PSA 10 holos (none of which were the harder to grade and more expensive ones). Yikes, indeed.
@sgbased , the short answer is no, even with the rising value of individual cards the boxes are not profitable to open. But buying boxes to break them up and sell the packs may sometimes be profitable, especially for YouTubers like PokeRev who are getting people to pay huge premiums on individual packs for the thrill of having their packs opened up in front of an audience.
With Jungle in particular, things are getting interesting though… if you can manage to pull down one of the big chase cards like Vaporeon or Snorlax in a PSA 10 then yeah you can probably make a profit by opening a box. But more likely you won’t get one of those big cards in a PSA 10 and you’ll lose out.
If your interest is long-term investment then it’s a virtual guarantee that your best option is keeping the box sealed.
Fair enough. It was just a suggestion. My thoughts also behind it were i that i see in the comments many people who are newer to the hobby and grading. My interpretation from all of this is that these people just assume that you are guaranteed a 9 or 10 from your videos which obviously you are not. Just a suggestion though
Some are more +EV than the other. Again, Z/G did a good job at breaking this down.
The “easiest” WOTC sets to grade in PSA 10 are fossil, rocket, both gym, and neo destiny.
Dark Charizard is a 20% psa 10 to pop ratio but that alone and the rest 9’s wont help you much.
If you can snag a few PSA 10s from fossil first ed you might be able to profit. Rev just opened one up though and you can see how hard it is to grade all the heavy hitters as 10s.
Same with gym challenge honestly. None of the high value cards in that set have below a 10% PSA 10 ratio, and there are many high value PSA 10s in that set. But I don’t know the current market price for gym challenge first ed
He got a few duplicates. The Holo card pool is small and like the 1st Ed base box break you could get 3 of the same card. The gym series and the neo series seem like you’re less likely to get duplicates then the fossil and jungle boxes. The EV spread does a good job looking at it overall, but theres many other things that contribute to the pop report.
Imagine getting duplicates of all the lower value cards from a box and they all get 9. That loss is going to hurt lol.
Generally the only sealed product worth opening in vintage isn’t a part of a set. It would probably be theme decks or something along those lines and even then it’s largely dependent on hitting a 10.
