Im curious, I’m aware it largely comes down to luck but for those who open vintage packs, on average are you making or losing money and depending on which outcome, by how much?
Reason I ask is because I’m considering buying and opening some heavies for a future sub. Just looking to see if this is a good idea considering the high and rising price on PSA cards.
It’s almost never profitable to open vintage packs. And if it does become profitable, that will swiftly be corrected by an increase in the price of that sealed product. For investment purposes, you’re almost certainly better off buying heavy vintage packs and keeping them sealed.
Of course, if you want to open to vintage packs for the fun of it or to complete sets, go for it. But don’t go into it expecting to even close to break even. You’ll almost always lose money.
The short answer: It’s almost certainly a more financially sound decision to simply buy the cards you want, rather than trying to hunt for them in packs.
The longer answer: I had this exact same question in 2016. I wanted complete PSA 10 1st ed Jungle and Fossil sets. But I noticed that the prices of the individual cards were too expensive compared to the price of the actual boxes. So I just bought boxes (3 Jungle, 2 Fossil).
Bottom line, if I had kept those 5 boxes sealed today they would be worth something like $35-40k.
And I assure you that the value of all the cards I opened up from the boxes is not worth close to that amount.
Having said, if your goal is immediate profit then for some sets (Gym Challenge for example) it could theoretically make sense to buy a box, open up just the heavy packs, grade the valuable cards in those packs, and then sell off all the light packs.
But then you have to consider that you probably won’t be getting your cards back from PSA for like a year. By that time, the price of sealed product might just shoot up again and then you’ll be kicking yourself for having opened the box.
The bottom line is that from a financial standpoint keeping boxes sealed is the wiser move.
if you’re expecting to collect PSA 10s, then expect to open at a loss, especially on vintage Pokemon. collect for nostalgia or for fun, but vintage is basically gambling, where even if you win, you can still lose by grading an 8 /9.
For some perspective, for 1st edition Base Set the *only* way you can make a profit by opening a heavy pack is either by getting a Charizard OR one of a small number of holos that ends up grading a 10. And your odds of grading any given holo a 10 right out of the pack are probably 1 in 4 at best. Not to mention, of the holos that would sell for more than the price of the pack in a 10, those cards are often more expensive *because* they are harder to grade (this is something you need to consider for every set)… so that just diminishes your chances of breaking even by opening up a pack even further.
If you think of it another way by you opening that product you made the sealed stuff more scare and therefore more valuable. If more people didn’t open their product you would have more retrace when the market is flooded with more product when sellers see one sell for alot. For every box I’ve sold and made a profit off a part of me wishes I open it for the fun/nostalgia. I’m very curious of the amount of sealed product in collectors hands that isn’t available yet or will ever be till they die.
@hyruleguardian, agreed, just look at Lee. He pulled the 1st Ed. Charizard, but at a (probable) PSA 9 that means he would only have 1 opportunity with a heavy base set pack to make a profit, and he definitely has/ will open more than 1.
The only time I gained from a single pack was when I opened an entire booster box. And the booster box as a whole was a loss.
I don’t really open packs much anymore lol.
I pulled a Sabrina which graded a PSA 9. By the time i got around to grading it I broke even. But like the others have echo’d keep it sealed and don’t try to go for glory.
Even the people who pull stuff on TCA or pokerev, the majority are breaking even at best and majority lose.
They buy 3 packs and pull 1 holo which grade a 9/10.
My guess is the people opening stuff on pokerev channel are mostly doing it for entertainment value. It is fun to gamble some money for the chance that you might strike it big by getting the chase card. Plus, there are 500+ people watching it happen so that is even more thrill. It isn’t the same if you open the pack alone.
I think with those openings you also have clout chasers that want people to know their name and how much money they have/willing to spend.
99.9% 
0.1% 
I think it is interesting if you factor in time to the equation.
If you are talking immediate profit/loss then opening vintage product is almost always a loss. However, if you opened product 3 years ago when it was much cheaper and got lots of PSA 9s, you now might be in the profit vs how much you paid for the packs in 2017.
So if you open a pack today for 200 and pull a card worth 100. In 5 years, that card could be worth 300 so I guess you would have a profit of 100. Of course this is also likely much less profit than if you kept the pack sealed and sold it 5 years later but in the end it is still technically net profit and not loss. Plus you get the fun of opening a pack and grading your own pulls.
This was my line of thinking. Except on a shorter term (3-6 months grading) with the current rate of inflation on cards. I guess just buying and holding the packs makes more sense.
All depends on what your goal is and if opening and grading the cards yourself provides enough fun to be worth any potential risk. Eventually, one would think the prices of the graded cards will catch up and pass however much you paid for the packs but that is speculation and how long “eventually” will last is a big question as well.
Idk…I have opened a decent amount of vintage stuff over the last few years by myself and it’s always a blast! I guess my wife did join a few times and it was exciting but she doesnt fully get the nostalgia.
I love opening older product, profit is limitless because of fun and nostalgia alone. If you value that more than the amount of money you’ve spent, there will never be a loss 
But that excitement and pure joy fades away quickly a just a few minutes after you’ve opened it, no?
Sure, after a while it fades away, but it´s no different than going to the cinema or disneyland. You got to make the time worthwile, there´s plenty of things one can do.
I guess the argument could be geared the same with not opening it as well. Do you get any excitement by just staring at it on a shelf or in storage? Maybe some, but its definitely going to be less for some. I’d argue I’d get that same excitement you get looking at the sealed stuff by me looking at the cards in my binder that I opened.
With all that said, while I don’t regret opening some, it’s still probably smarter to keep vintage sealed.