The prices of the theme decks are most likely priced in.
I wouldn’t put my own money into it to try it out, but you could have slightly positive outcomes with loose Japanese Neo Genesis and Expedition packs.
That is if you still can find them in bulk for ~40-50$ a piece and the graded card prices for them stay as high as they are or maybe even rise further. And the Expedition ones shouldn’t be weighted obviously.
I personally don’t think any of the WOTC boxes are going to be profitable to open and grade. BUT I would like to see a much different formula when calculating box prices. If the point of opening the box to profit only the most optimal method would be to weigh out the 12 heavy packs, open and grade the holos and then sell the other 24 light packs. The formula should be Profit = Graded Holo Values - Box Cost - grading fees + Light Pack sales. I think this would come out to a much more accurate portrayal of what the net value would be of opening and grading the holos.
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With little exception no boxes are generally not worth it to open. There exists way to few cards in these boxes worth near that of the sealed thing.
Not even gold ray in like psa 10 whould pay for the ex box you opened to pull it out off.
The exceptions starts around very certain sets generally modern ones but even then especially early sun and moon sets theres few boxes worth opening.
Generally the answer will always be no
It’s always a gamble
The economic of booster box prices pretty much naturally builds into it the math of of pulls and profitability of those cards. It’s like going against the house at the casino, the odds are not in your favor.
But as mentioned by another person here, it is not often thought about to open heavy packs just for the holos sell the light packs. That gives you the greatest chance at breaking even, but it is still a long shot.
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I don’t even think that would work anymore. People are skeptical of loose WOTC packs due to resealing and other stuff like that so buyers naturally place a risk premium on the item and discount it accordingly. The sealed booster box gives confidence to the buyer and buyers are willing to pay premium for that peace of mind. The only way I could see it work out favorably is if you crack the box, open all the heavy packs and manage to pull the higher tier cards and also manage to get a decent amount of 10s on the higher tier cards. Even if you luck out on that box the odds are that the next few boxes will just be the low tier holos.
Could always grade the light packed open the heavy that would be best bet. No one cares if a PSa graded pack is light or not. Most assume it’s light anyways
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it depends if you’re feelin’ lucky
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Every box has potential for profit when opened. Zero boxes are guaranteed profit.
depends on how many subscribers you’ve got
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Nailed it. Don’t forget Super Chats!
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Haha perfect answers!