The structure of change is decay, inert matter eventually falls apart, but in what reasonnable timeframe can we expect pokemon cards to degrade and in which fashion and rate ? I’m asking on behalf of my hypothetical grand grand sons.
Its been almost 30 years and the first printed cards seems to have developped no noticeable signs of corruption. What will our shiny cardboard look like 100 years from now ?
Are there experts here on the process of degradation of cardboard, pigments and layer integrity ? Supposing ideal storage condition, no UV exposure and optimal humidity. There might not be clear answers, but guesses anyone ?
Edit : to be more precise i’m asking about the spontaneous degradation of the card due to the effects of time and unpreventable factors like oxygen, not external factors / damage. Especially i’m surprised the pigments stay fixed for such lengths of time
I would think a very long time but from looking around a short while I couldn’t find a solid answer beyond pure speculation. There are sports cards that are far older holding up alright now and the methods that we have now for preserving cards are far greater than anything back then as well as I would expect the cards we have to be made better with regards to holding up over time. There are also alot of other environmental factors at play such as humidity so where you store the cards is going to be a big variable on the answer to this question.
I think pokemon collectors shouldn’t worry. I have a baseball card from 1887 that is fine, and was definitely less protected than the average pokemon card. Of course someone who is an expert in materials can weigh in, but in general I would be much more optimistic about any modern trading card. Since pokemon existed there has been third party grading. The baseball card mentioned had to wait almost a century for grading to exist. There are just so many protection options today: sleeves, binders, top loaders, screwdowns, graded slabs, and cases for your graded cards! Not only do more protection & preservation options exist, the average buyer is more condition conscious.
My curiosity is more on what will cleaning options do to cards long term. I’m not suggesting a doom & gloom scenario, its simply a curiosity as its uncharted territory.
Regarding longevity of TCG card, the paper will most likely degrade before the colors do. Pokemon cards are not archival paper. As far as I could find out they’re made from standard playing-card board, which still contains lignin and other wood-pulp components. Lignin naturally breaks down over time and releases acids, and thats what causes paper to slowly yellow and get brittle. Archival paper is chemically processed to remove that stuff, but TCG cardstock isn’t.
Here is what will happen over time to the components:
Cardstock:
Because of the lignin + slow oxidation, you’ll get a gradual warm/yellow tone in the whites over many decades. Flexibility will also slowly drop due to normal cellulose aging. Under ideal storage, this process should be veeeery slow, we’re talking a more than a century before it is seriously noticeable.
Inks:
As far as I could find out, Pokemon cards are printed using offset inks. Offset inks use stable pigments, not dyes. In the dark, these pigments should barely degrade. If there is no light, the colors could stay intact over centuries. But UV is a total killer!!! Deep Pocket Monster (Youtuber) did a test where he put raw cards and slabs in different lighting conditions for two weeks. The results were pretty wild: • 24 hours: No visible change. • 72 hours: Direct sunlight already caused significant fading on raw vintage cards. A tape strip left a perfect darker line, the rest was bleached. • 2 weeks: Full-on destruction. Raw cards and PSA slabs were completely faded. If I remember correctly CGC and BGS showed some degree of UV protection, but not 100%. Note that the test was performed about 4 years ago and PSA just recently updated their slabs and promise “improved UV protection”. I haven’t seen any data yet on how good it is. • Bottom line: Don’t display your cards! Slab or not! And please note that even indoor lighting has some UV and can fade cards over time, just a bit slower than direct sun exposure.
Coatings/adhesives:
These age too (polymers oxidize), but extremely slowly. Maybe slight gloss changes or microscopic cracking after many decades. Holos might dull a bit as the adhesive ages, and in very long timeframes, the internal layers could loosen (probably first at the edges).
My estimation (ideal storage - 30-40RH humidity, 20C, complete darkness):
up to 75 years: Basically fine, slight dulling, whites become a bit creamy, yellows deepen.
75–150 years: Glue dries, cards can split if flexed, holos start to go cloudy.
Much like everything from tech to healthcare, we see exponential growth in trading card quality as well as proper care techniques.
Like @smpratte said, there are still extremely old cards that are still in good shape, and who knows what kind of “care” or treatment they received over all those decades.
Pokémon cards, assuming properly cared for, sleeved, toploaded, away from light or humidity, etc, should remain in excellent shape for far, far, far, farrrrrrr longer than any of us will ever live to. Especially the slabbed ones. Considering that they’re sonically sealed hunks of plastic… yeah, I wouldn’t worry too much.
I’m more concerned about bit/disc rot for physical movies and games than I am about TC decay.
If thinking this long term into the future it would be best to sell the cards and buy gold, silver, platinum (the precious metals not Pokémon games) gemstones, and maybe even copper. Land and houses as well.
Things that are needed (except gemstones people just like shiny stuff in its case) for uses regardless of the value of paperstock and fiat currencies and technology of future society - advanced or destroyed.
If you are looking to preserve the art to pass on have archival prints made!
I have been collecting cards for decades, among them unsophisticated printed/ produced WW11 era paper cereal cards that have absolutely no protective coating surface. Most of these remain pristine (or should I say original condition). I also collect very early pulp paperbacks including English ‘Penguin” WW11 copies with very poor quality war issue paper (tissue thin). That makes them close to 80yrs old. I cant see any reason Pokemon cards wouldn’t survive in a collectors hands for 150 years and more. Survival will come down to interest and desire only.
Do you think cards that are still in their original sealed packs might have a different decay profile? Or maybe only certain modes of decay would be delayed?
I remember opening 20-year-old Base Set packs from a sealed booster box and noticing how they still had that “new card” smell. I suppose oxidation must be incredibly slow within a sealed pack, within a sealed box?