1st Edition Base Set Holos finally moving?

[shadowless]

Obtaining 8 blastoises would already move the market, if even possible.

[surfnsnow]

@shadowless

Obtaining 8 blastoises would already move the market, if even possible.

Exactly

[dalewilliamson]

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

[EnlightenedBulbasaur]

I’ll repeat the most important thing to know about highly-graded 1st edition Base Set holos, that I’ve already said several times on this forum.

We had a surge in interest in these cards after Pokemon Go and demand for them shot up exponentially. Prices for the individual cards surged. People who were holding supply of the boxes actually started to open them up because the expected value of the individual cards, after being graded, was much higher than the price of the box at the time. This caused populations for these cards to shoot up in the months that followed.

Before too long people caught onto how profitable it was to buy a 1st edition Base Set box and the price for the box started to surge, eventually to the point that it no longer made any sense to open the boxes for a profit.

And now we are at the point where PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos are barely being added to the population. There hasn’t been a new Charizard added to the PSA 10 population for over a year and only 2 have been added in the last two years. There hasn’t been a new Chansey added to the population since 2018.

I don’t see the price of the box falling to the point that it will make sense to open it from a financial standpoint in the near future and maybe not ever again (unless we’re talking about Leonhart’s 1 million sub video or something).

So the supply is in a place where it’s going to continue to decrease as more and more of these cards fall into the hands of permanent collectors. But the demand is always there, as there is a steady stream of young adults coming into money and wanting to reclaim something from their childhood (and in some cases people who didn’t even grow up with Pokemon are discovering vintage Pokemon cards through their kids’ interest in modern cards).

If my analysis is correct that we are going to see supply dwindle in the years to come while more and more enter the market for high-end Pokemon cards in the years to come then you can guess where I think prices are going in the future.

[dalewilliamson]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

I’ll repeat the most important thing to know about highly-graded 1st edition Base Set holos, that I’ve already said several times on this forum.

We had a surge in interest in these cards after Pokemon Go and demand for them shot up exponentially. Prices for the individual cards surged. People who were holding supply of the boxes actually started to open them up because the expected value of the individual cards, after being graded, was much higher than the price of the box at the time. This caused populations for these cards to shoot up in the months that followed.

Before too long people caught onto how profitable it was to buy a 1st edition Base Set box and the price for the box started to surge, eventually to the point that it no longer made any sense to open the boxes for a profit.

And now we are at the point where PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos are barely being added to the population. There hasn’t been a new Charizard added to the PSA 10 population for over a year and only 2 have been added in the last two years. There hasn’t been a new Chansey added to the population since 2018.

I don’t see the price of the box falling to the point that it will make sense to open it from a financial standpoint in the near future and maybe not ever again (unless we’re talking about Leonhart’s 1 million sub video or something).

So the supply is in a place where it’s going to continue to decrease as more and more of these cards fall into the hands of permanent collectors. But the demand is always there, as there is a steady stream of young adults coming into money and wanting to reclaim something from their childhood (and in some cases people who didn’t even grow up with Pokemon are discovering vintage Pokemon cards through their kids’ interest in modern cards).

If my analysis is correct that we are going to see supply dwindle in the years to come while more and more enter the market for high-end Pokemon cards in the years to come then you can guess where I think prices are going in the future.

we’ll said, great points!

[scarecrowman88]

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Nice! The one at PWCC is currently sitting at 7k. Gonna be interesting to watch how that one ends now…

[dalewilliamson]

@scarecrowman88

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Nice! The one at PWCC is currently sitting at 7k. Gonna be interesting to watch how that one ends now…

yehh I’m watching that auction! can’t wait to see where it ends at maybe close or over 10k would be crazy

[slippingjimmy]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

I’ll repeat the most important thing to know about highly-graded 1st edition Base Set holos, that I’ve already said several times on this forum.

We had a surge in interest in these cards after Pokemon Go and demand for them shot up exponentially. Prices for the individual cards surged. People who were holding supply of the boxes actually started to open them up because the expected value of the individual cards, after being graded, was much higher than the price of the box at the time. This caused populations for these cards to shoot up in the months that followed.

Before too long people caught onto how profitable it was to buy a 1st edition Base Set box and the price for the box started to surge, eventually to the point that it no longer made any sense to open the boxes for a profit.

And now we are at the point where PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos are barely being added to the population. There hasn’t been a new Charizard added to the PSA 10 population for over a year and only 2 have been added in the last two years. There hasn’t been a new Chansey added to the population since 2018.

I don’t see the price of the box falling to the point that it will make sense to open it from a financial standpoint in the near future and maybe not ever again (unless we’re talking about Leonhart’s 1 million sub video or something).

So the supply is in a place where it’s going to continue to decrease as more and more of these cards fall into the hands of permanent collectors. But the demand is always there, as there is a steady stream of young adults coming into money and wanting to reclaim something from their childhood (and in some cases people who didn’t even grow up with Pokemon are discovering vintage Pokemon cards through their kids’ interest in modern cards).

If my analysis is correct that we are going to see supply dwindle in the years to come while more and more enter the market for high-end Pokemon cards in the years to come then you can guess where I think prices are going in the future.

A lot of this is common sense among longtime collectors. 9s rising when 10s aren’t available. 200 not being a high pop when there are thousands of people collecting. Japanese exclusive promos being niche when there is simply no alternative, etc. etc.

It’s refreshing to see this come true for some cards but it’s also frightening since the higher you climb the harder you can fall.

Exciting times nonetheless.

[jawsh98]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

I’ll repeat the most important thing to know about highly-graded 1st edition Base Set holos, that I’ve already said several times on this forum.

We had a surge in interest in these cards after Pokemon Go and demand for them shot up exponentially. Prices for the individual cards surged. People who were holding supply of the boxes actually started to open them up because the expected value of the individual cards, after being graded, was much higher than the price of the box at the time. This caused populations for these cards to shoot up in the months that followed.

Before too long people caught onto how profitable it was to buy a 1st edition Base Set box and the price for the box started to surge, eventually to the point that it no longer made any sense to open the boxes for a profit.

And now we are at the point where PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos are barely being added to the population. There hasn’t been a new Charizard added to the PSA 10 population for over a year and only 2 have been added in the last two years. There hasn’t been a new Chansey added to the population since 2018.

I don’t see the price of the box falling to the point that it will make sense to open it from a financial standpoint in the near future and maybe not ever again (unless we’re talking about Leonhart’s 1 million sub video or something).

So the supply is in a place where it’s going to continue to decrease as more and more of these cards fall into the hands of permanent collectors. But the demand is always there, as there is a steady stream of young adults coming into money and wanting to reclaim something from their childhood (and in some cases people who didn’t even grow up with Pokemon are discovering vintage Pokemon cards through their kids’ interest in modern cards).

If my analysis is correct that we are going to see supply dwindle in the years to come while more and more enter the market for high-end Pokemon cards in the years to come then you can guess where I think prices are going in the future.

You and jonandek help me a lot when reading through these threads. Thank you for both your inputs along with everyone else. It’s nice reading everyone’s opinion on them.

This one was especially easy to understand

[7l7l]

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Is this $10k sale confirmed?!

[dalewilliamson]

@7l7l

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Is this $10k sale confirmed?!

not sure it was sold by Scott (smpratte) I guess time will tell! but I wouldnt be surprised to be honest

[yz2428]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

I’ll repeat the most important thing to know about highly-graded 1st edition Base Set holos, that I’ve already said several times on this forum.

We had a surge in interest in these cards after Pokemon Go and demand for them shot up exponentially. Prices for the individual cards surged. People who were holding supply of the boxes actually started to open them up because the expected value of the individual cards, after being graded, was much higher than the price of the box at the time. This caused populations for these cards to shoot up in the months that followed.

Before too long people caught onto how profitable it was to buy a 1st edition Base Set box and the price for the box started to surge, eventually to the point that it no longer made any sense to open the boxes for a profit.

And now we are at the point where PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos are barely being added to the population. There hasn’t been a new Charizard added to the PSA 10 population for over a year and only 2 have been added in the last two years. There hasn’t been a new Chansey added to the population since 2018.

I don’t see the price of the box falling to the point that it will make sense to open it from a financial standpoint in the near future and maybe not ever again (unless we’re talking about Leonhart’s 1 million sub video or something).

So the supply is in a place where it’s going to continue to decrease as more and more of these cards fall into the hands of permanent collectors. But the demand is always there, as there is a steady stream of young adults coming into money and wanting to reclaim something from their childhood (and in some cases people who didn’t even grow up with Pokemon are discovering vintage Pokemon cards through their kids’ interest in modern cards).

If my analysis is correct that we are going to see supply dwindle in the years to come while more and more enter the market for high-end Pokemon cards in the years to come then you can guess where I think prices are going in the future.

this was mentioned in another thread, but i think people like scott have much to do with the growing knowledge of the finances behind cards and sealed products the last 2-3 years. there is a segment of the market that is smart and have deep pockets, so the supply of old high-tier cards will become more scarce as time goes on. i can’t predict how much the scarcity will move the price points, but i believe pokemon is well positioned for continued growth. i stopped buying cards for about a year or two, but recently, i’ve started buying again because i have a feeling that card prices are going to adjust for the next 3-6 months as the market continues to mature, so in order to secure cards for my collection (primarily wotc), i feel that i should spend some now so i’m not priced out of a lot of cards.

[jonandek]

Scott and the other social media personalities around this hobby are all fantastic and were one of the things that drew me in. To have the mix of people like scott with intelligent content that appeals to hardcore collectors then also family friendly entertainment like unlisted leaf, leonhart etc is great. In magic now there’s rudy, but back in the day there was literally nothing. Then we got “hello and welcome to openboosters”. I bought some of my first gem mint alpha cards from that guy right when he found his stash of old cards and got his first cards graded way before his youtube channel. My serra angel came from him. At some point he basically told me wasn’t going to sell any more cards and regretted the sales. Funny

[EnlightenedBulbasaur]

@jonandek

Scott and the other social media personalities around this hobby are all fantastic and were one of the things that drew me in. To have the mix of people like scott with intelligent content that appeals to hardcore collectors then also family friendly entertainment like unlisted leaf, leonhart etc is great. In magic now there’s rudy, but back in the day there was literally nothing. Then we got “hello and welcome to openboosters”. I bought some of my first gem mint alpha cards from that guy right when he found his stash of old cards and got his first cards graded way before his youtube channel. My serra angel came from him. At some point he basically told me wasn’t going to sell any more cards and regretted the sales. Funny

Reminds me of how I got many of my 1st edition Base Set cards by messaging a guy (TMurder20) who opened up a box on YouTube back in 2009. He was the first person to ever open a 1st edition Base Set box on YouTube. I messaged him and purchased a complete non-holo set from him for $100. Got the cards graded many years later and those cards are now worth about 100x what I paid for them.

[jonandek]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@jonandek

Scott and the other social media personalities around this hobby are all fantastic and were one of the things that drew me in. To have the mix of people like scott with intelligent content that appeals to hardcore collectors then also family friendly entertainment like unlisted leaf, leonhart etc is great. In magic now there’s rudy, but back in the day there was literally nothing. Then we got “hello and welcome to openboosters”. I bought some of my first gem mint alpha cards from that guy right when he found his stash of old cards and got his first cards graded way before his youtube channel. My serra angel came from him. At some point he basically told me wasn’t going to sell any more cards and regretted the sales. Funny

Reminds me of how I got many of my 1st edition Base Set cards by messaging a guy (TMurder20) who opened up a box on YouTube back in 2009. He was the first person to ever open a 1st edition Base Set box on YouTube. I messaged him and purchased a complete non-holo set from him for $100. Got the cards graded many years later and those cards are now worth about 100x what I paid for them.

wow, that is awesome. that’s why I was buying and cracking out all of those 1st ed psa 9 cards. nothing like those pack fresh cards. in magic I bought an arabian nights set from a guy who had opened a box and sleeved the cards. I ended up with quite a few pristine beckett 10s out of what had been a several hundred dollar purchase. my only experience like that so far with pokemon has been with the 1st ed fossil and jungle sets where I was lucky enough to snag really minty binder sets in raw form. 1st ed seems long past that now.

[fresco]

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Actually i think this is the most important movement recently, how the mid-end cards are moving. As the high end cards are rocking some extremely high values, people will start moving to lower grades. All the 9s will get bought (supply is higher here) and the prices will move up for 9s, people will move to 8s eventually and so on.

Since most psa 7 are good looking cards with some flaws, i think this will become the “entry” lvl for newer collectors as the prices for higher tier items will be even more exclusive.

[jonandek]

@fresco

@dalewilliamson

PSA 9 zard just sold for $10000!! seems these Lower grade zards may still yet have room to move!!

Actually i think this is the most important movement recently, how the mid-end cards are moving. As the high end cards are rocking some extremely high values, people will start moving to lower grades. All the 9s will get bought (supply is higher here) and the prices will move up for 9s, people will move to 8s eventually and so on.

Since most psa 7 are good looking cards with some flaws, i think this will become the “entry” lvl for newer collectors as the prices for higher tier items will be even more exclusive.

I think this is sound logic. PSA 8 in particular is still a great looking card in most respects. the flaws are generally on the back and still relatively minor. 7s still mostly look great from the front

[pokemonargentina]

Maybe @smpratte could chime in and confirm the 10K Sale on the Zard.

I guess all eyes are on this PSA9 1st Ed Base Set Charizard from PWCC now.

[Fireftw_TCG]

Glad you pointed out this PSA 9 on PWCC, I am intrested to see what this ends on! For some reason on ebay UK it doesn’t show any of PWCC’s items. Really annoying I have to go to ebay.com to see these.