1st Edition Base Set Holos finally moving?

[mcorey777]

@modestmudkip

I hope so! I just bought blastoise today, spent about a year collecting the holos and I am happy to say i am only 3 holos away now!

Which ones are left? And what grades did you go for?

[modestmudkip]

@mcorey777

@modestmudkip

I hope so! I just bought blastoise today, spent about a year collecting the holos and I am happy to say i am only 3 holos away now!

Which ones are left? And what grades did you go for?

Just nidoking ninetales and raichu left. Most are raw NM and some psa 7. I believe I spent around 4k getting this far after starting in early 2019

[swarm]

@modestmudkip

I hope so! I just bought blastoise today, spent about a year collecting the holos and I am happy to say i am only 3 holos away now!

You’ve made great progress. Keep it up man

[jawsh98]

@mcorey777

@joakimstore

BUY BUY BUY BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE CARDS WILL SHOOT TO THE MOON

I wonder how many of us are pretty much addicted to buying and completing set goals while attempting to collect as fast as possible before prices increase. I know I’m guilty of this haha

I’m with you

[jawsh98]

@modestmudkip

@mcorey777

Which ones are left? And what grades did you go for?

Just nidoking ninetales and raichu left. Most are raw NM and some psa 7. I believe I spent around 4k getting this far after starting in early 2019

Congrats!!!

[jawsh98]

@jonandek

Base set will get its dues… glad to see it happening

Reason I say is watch out when inventory clears out on base set is because it has the most fixed supply of product vs other sets. I predict recent prices on the neo sets will lead to more graded product for those sets entering the market. It will likely enter in the same ratio as the current grades (ie “hard to grade in 10” cards will still remain relatively hard to grade) but it will happen. The extent as to which it happens will be interesting to watch and will start to give a sense as to print runs of these cards vs base set. And my comment is only directed towards the holos.

For example, 1st ed Neo genesis Lugia has the most graded copies submitted to PSA out of 1st ed Neo Genesis. Why? For a long time it’s been the most expensive card in the set. But there are still less than 1000 copies submitted. if you look at the base set 1st PSA pop report, basically ALL of those holos have as at least as many submissions as the PSA 9 Lugia from first set base (900+). 1st ed base Charizard and Blastoise have ~2400 and ~1400 copies each submitted so in theory that’s what is possible. Yes there are lots of re-subs but probably for neo lugia as well.

For most of the rest of 1st ed neo holos, the PSA pop is less than 500. Even the almighty T17 sits at only 455 submissions. So, these pops will change.

But 1st ed base PSA pop growth should increase at a relative snails pace. Recognize all of this may be known/obvious but thought some of the data would be interesting to highlight. BTW, this post is not to bash 1st ed neo sets. I love those sets and have been collecting them. I am long-term bullish on them. The point was to highlight the growth potential for 1st ed base in contrast to a recent “fast grower” that seems to be top of mind right now

I tend to read a lot of your posts as they’re easy to understand.

To you, and everyone else interested in this thread, what are your opinions on what will happen to the PSA 10 1st Ed Base? Charizard, for instance, is obviously a huge investment if buying now. The others are so far behind, does anyone think it is close to it’s peak? With 120 PSA 10 copies I always wonder how we compare to MTG.

Just a fun topic I keep thinking of in this huge growth and love reading everyone’s opinion.

Hope you’re all safe and having as much fun as me watching the EBay market going nuts

[charizandrew]

@jawsh98, Charizard is in its own category. Its price rivals trophy cards and some of the rarest cards in the hobby, yet it’s a set card. The other cards in the set will never catch up. It’s anyone’s guess to how it will grow, but I would say Charizard has more potential than most if not all other cards in the set even though it’s already at a higher price.

[madden12ut]

@charizandrew

Assuming Blastoise is $6500 right now and a 1.5x increase would put it at 10k

I wonder if Zard can reach its 1.5x increase first ($50k? → $75k)

[charizandrew]

@madden12ut, Blastoise might be able to win that race lol, it’s tough to predict.

[pokemonargentina]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@mcorey777

I have no idea on print runs but what I do notice when buying is there always seems to be plenty of 1st edition base and hardly any of some of the Neo 1st ed holo’s. Also Aquapolis and Skyridge are very scarce as well as most of the ex era sets. I’ve really been liking collecting these type of sets with less available cards. I’ll always love base set 1st editions but they aren’t exactly hard to find if you have the money to spend

It’s sort of a catch-22 for Neo - the supply for all those cards is much lower because far fewer of these cards were printed due to the fact that 90s Pokemon hype had already died down. But therefore there are also far fewer people who have nostalgia tied to these cards compared to the cards printed in 1999 (and they don’t have the honor of being the original Pokemon TCG cards, although they do contain the rookie cards for Gen 2). I would say the surge in price for Neo cards has mostly come from people who didn’t grow up with the cards but fell in love with them anyway (I am also in the camp of people who thinks the Neo cards are fantastic).

In my mind the demand for Neo cards in general will never match Base/Jungle/Fossil because there are far fewer people who have nostalgia tied to the Neo series - HOWEVER, since these cards have a much smaller supply it sort of balances out.

---

For some perspective on supply, consider these PSA pop report numbers for the 1st edition cards (disregarding Charizard submissions):

• Base Set holos: around 800-1100 of each submitted to PSA
• Jungle holos: around 600-800 of each submitted to PSA
• Fossil holos: around 900-1100 of each submitted to PSA
• Neo Genesis holos: around 400-550 of each submitted to PSA
• Neo Discovery holos: around 200-300 of each submitted to PSA
• Neo Revelations holos: around 250-400 of each submitted to PSA
• Neo Destiny holos: around 150-200 of each submitted to PSA (and around 300 submissions for each of the Shinings)

So clearly the Neo cards in general are much scarcer, and although in my opinion the demand for these cards will never match that of the first 3 sets, increased demand combined with scarcity have made them very pricey.

Your posts are pure magic

[mcorey777]

@jawsh98

@jonandek

Base set will get its dues… glad to see it happening

Reason I say is watch out when inventory clears out on base set is because it has the most fixed supply of product vs other sets. I predict recent prices on the neo sets will lead to more graded product for those sets entering the market. It will likely enter in the same ratio as the current grades (ie “hard to grade in 10” cards will still remain relatively hard to grade) but it will happen. The extent as to which it happens will be interesting to watch and will start to give a sense as to print runs of these cards vs base set. And my comment is only directed towards the holos.

For example, 1st ed Neo genesis Lugia has the most graded copies submitted to PSA out of 1st ed Neo Genesis. Why? For a long time it’s been the most expensive card in the set. But there are still less than 1000 copies submitted. if you look at the base set 1st PSA pop report, basically ALL of those holos have as at least as many submissions as the PSA 9 Lugia from first set base (900+). 1st ed base Charizard and Blastoise have ~2400 and ~1400 copies each submitted so in theory that’s what is possible. Yes there are lots of re-subs but probably for neo lugia as well.

For most of the rest of 1st ed neo holos, the PSA pop is less than 500. Even the almighty T17 sits at only 455 submissions. So, these pops will change.

But 1st ed base PSA pop growth should increase at a relative snails pace. Recognize all of this may be known/obvious but thought some of the data would be interesting to highlight. BTW, this post is not to bash 1st ed neo sets. I love those sets and have been collecting them. I am long-term bullish on them. The point was to highlight the growth potential for 1st ed base in contrast to a recent “fast grower” that seems to be top of mind right now

I tend to read a lot of your posts as they’re easy to understand.

To you, and everyone else interested in this thread, what are your opinions on what will happen to the PSA 10 1st Ed Base? Charizard, for instance, is obviously a huge investment if buying now. The others are so far behind, does anyone think it is close to it’s peak? With 120 PSA 10 copies I always wonder how we compare to MTG.

Just a fun topic I keep thinking of in this huge growth and love reading everyone’s opinion.

Hope you’re all safe and having as much fun as me watching the EBay market going nuts

I don’t think it will hit a peak for a very long time. I’d guess the peak would be if Pokemon took a dive and people lost interest which I don’t see happening in any of our lifetimes but you never know. Prices will continue to climb as the years pass. What would a 100 year old 1st edition Base holo be worth at that time period a million haha who knows

[jonandek]

Late to re-join the party. Fun thread. I too like collecting neo sets. For now I’ve been going for “pack fresh” 1st ed neo binder sets. For those I’ll generally buy PSA 8 and 9 holos and crack them then snoop around on ebay for raw cards on the rest of the set. I wonder about the size of the 1st edition neo print run vs 1st edition base. One of the things I was question is whether the print run is actually larger or smaller. If you believe larger, then more graded neo PSA cards are coming. In any case I like those cards a lot.

I also love the skyridge and aquapolis sets and have been collecting the holos (graded) and reverse holos (graded and cracked) from those sets. The great art extends past the holos all the way up the sets. I don’t know why but I don’t care for the expedition art (except the holos) nearly as much. I’ve collected the holos only from that set. I just started looking for pack fresh EX series sets too.

In terms if base 1st PSA 10s, I still think they’re too expensive to soar on value just yet. More Pokemon fans with high disposable income are needed. But it will happen as the fan base ages. Agree they won’t peak for a long time. As someone else said there is a lot of legs to pokemon given the multi-generational pop culture phenomenon it’s become.

[jonandek]

Case in point… in 2013 I was very nervous paying $37k for my Alpha Black Lotus with 2x 9.5, 2x 10 subs. That’s the price of a car for a piece of cardboard. That same Lotus, at least as of a few months ago, was selling for $450k. To people now, they can’t believe I only paid $37k. To the collectors then, I was crazy. They had been paying a fraction of that just years earlier. See a pattern?

When I was in high school and magic had just come out, very soon the moxes and black lotus started getting attention. They started selling for $25, then $50, then $100. Then more. I remember being stunned by this. Who was paying those prices? KIDS! That’s a lot of relative money for a kid to pay. That’s a lot of mowed lawns, lifeguarding or burger flipping at the local fast food restaurant. But kids loved those cards. They were the uber cards to play with and also to show off to their friends. They had a mystique about them. Who is paying the high prices for pokemon cards today? KIDS. Kids who are grownup. On a relative basis, the cost is the same for these grownup kids as it was then. It’s a lot of hours spent working whatever job to plunk down for that T17. People don’t change just because they grow up.

What happened with magic will happen with select cards in pokemon too. Why not? And couldn’t pokemon set its own records? I’m betting on it.

[mcorey777]

Yup i believe it was Kingpokemon that mentioned the many legs of Pokemon haha but i may be wrong. That’s great that you’re collecting the same cards. Yours sounds like better condition than mine but I’m happy regardless with what I do have. I’ve never cracked a psa case the few I have I keep as is. And as far as everyone has mentioned I’m pretty sure much smaller print run on Neo. I also agree that the higher ones like the psa 10 1st ed base zards and what not are for a more established collector. I did the best I could for my modest budgets and I didn’t want to only complete a few sets like I mentioned before. Another thing I know is a lot of people are collecting only caring about the money and not the actual historical value or the beautiful artwork. We need more collectors that simply enjoy the cards and if they did sell it would be at a late age in life vs this new constant flipper era. Nothing wrong with selling some doubles but tons of people buy cards simply to resell as fast as possible with biggest mark up possible

[yz2428]

if you look at booster box prices like skyridge (25k) and 1st ed neo destiny (20k), it’s a crime that there are psa 10 holos from those sets with pop of less than 75, nay, even 50, that are selling for less than 500USD, even after recent inflations. These boxes will not go down in prices nor scarcity, and you won’t see many pop increases anytime soon with the sealed product being so darn expensive. so there’s still plenty of movements to see, I think, in the market. 1st edition has to go up, too. i think any base 1st edition psa 10 holos under 3k is a legitimate smart buy. looking at Magic, the alpha rares/power 9s in BGS 9.5 gem mint (mtg equivalent of 1st ed base) easily go for 10k+ USD. I think we are going to see more base holos 1st edition in psa 10 hit 10k soon, outside of Charizard, which is way ahead of the pack.

[pokecollectoramy]

@jonandek

Case in point… in 2013 I was very nervous paying $37k for my Alpha Black Lotus with 2x 9.5, 2x 10 subs. That’s the price of a car for a piece of cardboard. That same Lotus, at least as of a few months ago, was selling for $450k. To people now, they can’t believe I only paid $37k. To the collectors then, I was crazy. They had been paying a fraction of that just years earlier. See a pattern?

When I was in high school and magic had just come out, very soon the moxes and black lotus started getting attention. They started selling for $25, then $50, then $100. Then more. I remember being stunned by this. Who was paying those prices? KIDS! That’s a lot of relative money for a kid to pay. That’s a lot of mowed lawns, lifeguarding or burger flipping at the local fast food restaurant. But kids loved those cards. They were the uber cards to play with and also to show off to their friends. They had a mystique about them. Who is paying the high prices for pokemon cards today? KIDS. Kids who are grownup. On a relative basis, the cost is the same for these grownup kids as it was then. It’s a lot of hours spent working whatever job to plunk down for that T17. People don’t change just because they grow up.

What happened with magic will happen with select cards in pokemon too. Why not? And couldn’t pokemon set its own records? I’m betting on it.

Hey man, honest question…what’s the ultimate goal for the lotus? A 10x return in 7 years is a dream for investors in any investment.

[jonandek]

@pokecollectoramy

@jonandek

Case in point… in 2013 I was very nervous paying $37k for my Alpha Black Lotus with 2x 9.5, 2x 10 subs. That’s the price of a car for a piece of cardboard. That same Lotus, at least as of a few months ago, was selling for $450k. To people now, they can’t believe I only paid $37k. To the collectors then, I was crazy. They had been paying a fraction of that just years earlier. See a pattern?

When I was in high school and magic had just come out, very soon the moxes and black lotus started getting attention. They started selling for $25, then $50, then $100. Then more. I remember being stunned by this. Who was paying those prices? KIDS! That’s a lot of relative money for a kid to pay. That’s a lot of mowed lawns, lifeguarding or burger flipping at the local fast food restaurant. But kids loved those cards. They were the uber cards to play with and also to show off to their friends. They had a mystique about them. Who is paying the high prices for pokemon cards today? KIDS. Kids who are grownup. On a relative basis, the cost is the same for these grownup kids as it was then. It’s a lot of hours spent working whatever job to plunk down for that T17. People don’t change just because they grow up.

What happened with magic will happen with select cards in pokemon too. Why not? And couldn’t pokemon set its own records? I’m betting on it.

Hey man, honest question…what’s the ultimate goal for the lotus? A 10x return in 7 years is a dream for investors in any investment.

I’ll be dead-honest with you. I got nervous in 2016 and sold all of my graded magic sets. collecting the cards was nostalgic for me, but the values had gone up a lot from 2013-2016 and I wasn’t connected enough to the hobby to feel comfortable holding so much value in it. magic is not nearly as mainstream as pokemon. There are no movies, tv shows, stuffed animals. It’s all about the TCG.

my jitters caused me to miss the peak in magic by a good 2-3 years. The value of my alpha and beta lotus alone in 2019 would have been nearly as much as what I sold my entire sets for in 2016. my dream alpha set now is probably an ungraded binder set. That’s if I had a way to know the cards were all authentic. I’m not enough of a die-hard magic fan to pay the prices for the graded stuff anymore, and it would never be as good as what I used to have. My alpha set is now owned by one of the original developers of the PC game path of exile.

[mcorey777]

I can’t seem to connect with magic either but to each their own. I have noticed some random tcgs I never heard of like the final fantasy tcg thread or Godzilla tcg both looked really kool but still Pokemon is the only cards I like. Some iconic sports cards as well

[ccrntrade]

Supply and demand

The supply was high, PWCC had multiple blocks in a row flooded with 1st edition base holos. Now the supply started to slow up, and the demand has increased with new collectors hitting the scene stuck at home. I think we should see a nice increase in price across the board for all PSA 1st edition base holos.

[surfnsnow]

@madden12ut

@charizandrew

Assuming Blastoise is $6500 right now and a 1.5x increase would put it at 10k

I wonder if Zard can reach its 1.5x increase first ($50k? → $75k)

Assuming both cards would increase by 1.5x, you would need to obtain 7.69 Blastoises to go from 50k to 75k, vs 1 Charizard.