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FWIW, I was able to finish a Master Set of Brilliant Stars (including the Trainer Gallery cards and all reverse holos) by opening:
17 Booster Boxes
13 Build and Battle Boxes
6 ETBs
2 PC ETBs
Random number of single packs (20ish)
Fewer than 5 3-pack blisters
Also ended up with a number of extras (three rainbow Zards, four Alt Art Arceus, doubles of all the gold cards, etc.
Hope that helps!
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How you can see this data point and think that modern sealed product is a bad investment? The number of boxes required to complete a set is large. You can’t complete a set until you get all the chase cards. Chase cards will have a premium attached to them which will support sealed prices.
I’d say that the larger the set and the more chase cards it has, the better of an investment it will be long term.
Or am I mad and missing something obvious?
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That’s a really good point.. I’d love cento see a poll of collectors on how much they spend per set by opening packs.
Probably wanna move this question to the Giant English Market Thread, but to answer it…
Nobody can say whether modern product is a “bad” investment simply for 2 main reasons: 1. Nobody can accurately predict the future, and 2. A “bad investment” can be a subjective term based on what an individual considers to be a good ROI. What we can do however, is assert how good or bad investing in modern is likely to be based on comparative options and cost of capital.
So, I would reframe this with a different question. Why would you invest in modern sealed when there are many other options that are much older and rarer which are the same price or cheaper? Why would you sink capital into product with 0 fundamentals, produced in massive volumes never before seen in the TCG, and that every Timmyballer69 is hiding in his closet, when you could use the same capital to purchase cards or products that have greater age, rarity and unique identity?
Also, your assumption that a larger set with more chase cards = better, is… basic (and I don’t mean that to be insulting). We could talk about lack of rarity, what defines a “chase” card - art? rarity? the Pokémon? the artist? but all you really need to do is look at WOTC sets. Age and rarity aside, what made these sets so popular? They had a defined set identity which was well-balanced by a card list that was of such a size that collecting the complete set was viable, the card art was one-and-done - not recycled into newer sets, and they were released at the beginning or close to the beginning of the Pokémon TCG era - every new release was a novelty. You then combine these factors with growing scarcity due to smaller print runs and lack of Timmy69charizardballers back-in-the-day, 19+ years, and millennial nostalgia, and you have recipe for high demand and high prices. You just will not see that repeated with modern product.
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There’s a whole generation of kids growing up with different starters/legendaries as the thing that’ll give them nostalgia from 2030-onwards when they start earning good money from their career. We’ll probably have early WOTC become unreachable for many people, but that doesn’t mean modern (from today’s perspective) won’t become ‘mid-vintage’ in 10 years and have a high price tag associated with it.
Also the timmyballer thing… those people don’t stick around for long. Life happens to everyone and the $xK that you are sitting on when you need your first car, first house becomes hard to sit on. That’ll free up some supply and might affect price, but not in a meaningful way long term imo.
Yeah and I don’t doubt that modern product in line with virtually every single sealed Pokémon product ever released will rise in value over a long enough period of time. But to your original question as to whether modern makes for a bad/good investment - as I said, the question should really be why would you invest in something with 0 fundamentals when there are items accessible for the same capital that are scarcer or rarer, tied to unique releases or events, and much older? Why would you tie up capital in something brand new, with a lesser identity, at a time when TPCI has never printed so much product? (Or as you put it, why would you want ‘mid-vintage’ in 10 years when you could just simply have vintage?)
There’s a broader assumption that vintage items have somehow run their course in terms of ROI or that the ‘big money’ has already been made, and that buying new product at MSRP is the equivalent of getting in early. You mentioned that today’s kids will get the same nostalgia at a time when they have discretionary income (which infers that prices will inflate at that point), which they might - but this assumes that conditions for today’s kids are the same as what we experienced in the late 90s and early 2000s, whereas they’re very different. We’re now 26 years into the franchise, there are more sets being released per year with diluted set identity vs what we experienced with WOTC, set collecting is no longer the done thing - anything shy of an ultra rare is considered junk, virtually all product is kept in mint condition, and none of this product will be scarce in any reasonable timeframe.
Just to add a final point to the idea that today’s kids will inflate modern prices when they enter the discretionary-income-nostalgia-phase… don’t forget that the current millennial generation doesn’t just stop existing - this generation will continue to expand its income and refine its collecting tastes over the coming decades. Infer from that what you will about the effect on vintage prices!
Anyway I think we’re on course to derailing the thread - apologies FStar 
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I think that is just one factor. Yes, rarity can have a positive effect on demand, but there is definitely a limit where the cards become so hard to get that collectors give up. I’m in that category where its just to hard to pull the cards I want so I don’t buy or collect the sets.
That’s around 750 packs. That’s incredible! Do you know how many rainbow rares you pulled total?
“Or as you put it, why would you want ‘mid-vintage’ in 10 years when you could just simply have vintage?”
Because vintage will become too expensive (an assumption). An NM unlimited base zard is already pretty expensive. In 10-15 years it’ll be way more than it is now.
Also I don’t think modern boxes have 0 fundamentals. There’s the insane IP of Pokemon, the new alt-art approach which is clearly loved by fans, lots of new pokemon products/media that aren’t TCG related which keep the hype going etc. Like imagine if they partner with disney and make a yoda/pikachu card like mario pikachu. They can do whatever they want right? It’s on them to not mess up the next 10 years of product.
Also last thing, I only played red/blue and gold/silver. So I’ve never battled rayquaza. But I still love the new alt art rayquaza has. Will I collect it? Not purposefully. If I pull it would I be happy? Yes I would, it’s amazing! But I can choose sell that to someone who, as a kid, will have built that emotional attachment and buy a card I have more personal emotional attachment too (dragonite). Or, I can keep it in my collection and appreciate the art. Modern sealed boxes have both the old and new pokemon, so it’s actually attracting a wider audience than only vintage sets.
Anyway, great discussion! Sorry OP haha.
Sure, I can can actually give a break down on all of the hit cards I pulled (I still have them all in a couple of ETB boxes) if y’all think it would be interesting 
Just another thought: the Alt Arts are going to be a huge sub-collection (across multiple sets, obviously) going forward, and there is no doubt in my mind that—assuming Pokemon continues to print them in relatively small numbers—as people continue to enter the game/hobby, they will be looking to collect Alt Arts specifically, either to collect the sub-set or of specific Pokemon. Think of them as the new (old school) ex cards or lv. x cards lol
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Very likely yes. I dont collect modern sets or anything but I do own a bunch of alt art cards because they look cool and are more rare compared to other cards
I just collect my favorite alternate arts/full art trainers, preferably in Japanese. Because the texture in English cards is a little much for my taste, and call it a day. I might open one or two boxes but usually, with how large these sets are now and hit rates, it’s impossible to justify to myself unless I want a certain non-SR card. Sadly, QC for Japanese cards has dipped recently but from S&M through most of S&W if a Japanese card graded an 8, it would be a travesty.
Not sure if off-topic but rarity comes down to print runs.
Kinda hard to know how many of a card is out there and then determine the demand.
Or maybe an alternative perspective would be, how many collectors do we estimate are out there?
Obviously no science here, but I’ve found especially since Battle Styles that I seem to get the exact same FA’s, SR’s and AA’s over and over. This has specifically peaked with Brilliant Stars - I have multiple copies (talking 3-4 of each) of almost every FA/SR/AA that I do have, and then not a single copy of the others.
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Yes, good point. To expand on that, I have noticed that some booster boxes of BrStr seem to follow almost the exact same patterns in terms of hits, to the point where I have more than a dozen examples (both of my own and from others posting online) where almost the exact same cards are pulled from the same box. (Obviously, I am assuming that the people who are sharing their pulls online are not lying.)
@reinasierpe, the good thing is that all the people who buy those booster boxes are subsidizing the rest of us buying singles
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So true. I feel like I’m selling booster boxes to addicts most of the time and not collectors.
That would be great! Please post it. I’d love to compare it to the other figures I’ve gotten from pack breakers.