With new-tech making it possible to recreate fake cards that look real, will the value of cards and card collecting eventually go down since there potentially might not be any difference?

[YogiTheCollector]

Or will there always be one defining difference between real and fake ones?

Ive seen a lot of videos lately about very original looking, fake cards. I know obvious signs, like lighting, centering, holo overdoing (like too many stars on charizard for instance). But some of them are REALLY close to real ones. How can i know the difference on those that look really original? Do you have to trust the reviews of the seller on ebay for instance? I know PSA slabs has cert, the shimmer, smaller logos that become visible etc as you slightly turn the slab.

But on ebay (since thats where I buy them) how can I know for sure?

Also; wont the value of real cards go down, if you can easily recreate cards that are very close to the real ones? Especially with new tech.

And big picture:
Cards are not like Bitcoin, where you can’t recreate it. Cards have a deflationary characteristic to it (as people lose real, 1st edition ones for instance, they will become scarcer), yes, but can this be hindered with new tech, that makes it harder and harder to see the difference, and thus flooding the market with fake ones that are SO close to the real ones, that there eventually (potentially) is no difference? Think 10-20 years from now with emerging tech

In other words, will pokemon cards be so easy to recreate that the value goes down?

Or are there very specific traits that are impossible to recreate?

Remember; our agreement on what is valuable and not, is what gives something value. Scarcity, utility, authenticity and cultural significance; is what we agreed upon in this case as factors that makes things valuable. There is no inherent value in any thing (which is more of an existential question tbh, so I won’t digress); our consensus agreement makes it valuable.

With that said… is it likely that these “agreements” we have created, become threatened in TCG’s case, in the (not so distant) future because of technology?

Let us use 1st editions from the base set as an example

[Josh]

As recent events have proven, if there’s enough money to be made, someone will try. However advances in tech don’t just extend to the ability to accurately recreate trading cards, but also to analytical forensic tools. As recent events have also proven, even if you don’t have access to the most complex modern forensic equipment, the sheer power of deductive and analytical reasoning is not to be taken for granted. Processes leave fingerprints, whether that’s the physical creation or the distribution of the final product. While some technological processes might be considered infallible, the people driving them most certainly aren’t, there will always be threads to unpick. Bad actors will continue to find ways of disturbing the TCG but true authenticity will always prevail.

Also, what Camrok said

[camrok37]

Old certs go

[Soda_Eesti]

Its technically possible to make 1:1 replica of pokemon cards, just do exactly the way tpci does it, abd it always has been, its just down to the amount of money you have, and to put it simply, if you have enough money to buy the equipment needed to replicate pokemon cards perfectly, you dont need or want the money you would gain from selling them.

[fourthstartcg]

This is going to sound condescending, but fakes are not a problem for people with more than cursory hobby knowledge. The people most affected by fakes are new members of the hobby who don’t yet have the experience to tell the difference between a fake and a real card. While you might be able to make a fake look passable in one picture on eBay, any in-person examination by a knowledgeable collector will immediately identify it as fake.

Because we have safeguards in place (e.g. eBay buyer protection, PSA grading, etc.), it is highly unlikely that a flood of unidentifiable fakes will significantly impact the market. Doesn’t mean people haven’t tried, but the cards that are most often faked (e.g. Mario/Luigi Pikachu, Van Gogh Pika) aren’t being slowed down one bit by the influx of fake copies.

Lastly, Pokemon is a drop in the ocean compared to what people could fake if they had the time and ability. Why fake Pokemon cards with a max value of a couple thousand dollars when you could fake multimillion dollar sports cards? If you’ve mastered trading card replication, it can’t be that hard to print some Gretzky rookies or Jordan autos. At that point, why don’t you just cut out the middleman and counterfeit currency itself?

[eievui]

Its technically “possible” but so is downing a 2 liter of coca cola in 10 seconds with 10 mentos in your mouth. With the amount of money and time it would take it wouldnt be worth it.

The fingerprint of cmykk ink, and all the normal features of spotting fakes already disuades people from making good/bad fakes, and the risk of doing so just isnt worth it.

Lastly if it did make it to the public and all cards did go down then its a win for the collectors. Cards would actually be what theyre worth again and we could collect easier. Yeah there would be more fakes, but like others have said its not difficult to spot them.

[pfm]

I can make a 30% accurate fake buy printing out a card from my home printer. Or a 50% accurate one by finding an office printer and trying to match the color better. Or with access to a large offset printer maybe I can get 80% accurate. But it gets exponentially harder to improve the accuracy the closer you get to a real card. You have to get the holo right, the dot pattern right, the font and layout right, correct texture and gloss level, ink composition etc etc.

But basically you can still trick someone on the internet into buying an 80% accurate card. The incentive of making a 1:1 copy isn’t really worth the effort. If anything it’s easier and more lucrative to fake the plastic PSA slab, which is what we see happening more and more.

The scammers will take the path of least effort so that’s a plus for us at least. If the original card printer files ever fell into the wrong hands though… that would certainly certainly be a problem.

[fatehounds]

I have a fake card that has an almost correct texture and photographs well, but the back is horrendous and in person it’s a lot darker than it should be. I don’t think it will make real cards cheaper, personally. But cards right now are super expensive so they probably will have to drop at some point. Don’t think it will be due to fakes though.

[ddk]

I’ve also seen scammers faking PSA slabs down to the embossed logo and engravings on the lower corners of the slab.

They still don’t look perfect to the trained eye but it’s frightening how much better the fake slabs have gotten in recent years.

[Ratequaza]

But basically you can still trick someone on the internet into buying an 80% accurate card

Hell, even a 40% or 10% accurate card. The most common fakes around look like one of the types below after all.

[pfm]

You’re right, but those trick moms and grandparents. No one is dropping 4 figs on those. I’m talking more about like a first edition charizard on craigslist type of scam

[Letmebid]

High cert # will drop thats for sure, bit skeptical myself. Could take years to find out about high quality counterfits, so i purchase certs that are a few years old, for vintage anyways

[RabidSquirtle]

Wouldn’t work, only way to make money back would be to flood market with high value cards even if they are graded and eventually someone or TPC would get suspicious of a high influx in cards, someone would find a error in the cards leading to an investigation so while you might crash the general market some cards would stand out if you didn’t print them and those would go up in value (also the machines they use to print cards are so expensive)

[Wargraymon]

I bought a proxy of dark slobro recently to compare it to my real one. The fakes have a few issue mentioned above like the colors being off. The real issue is that they couldn’t reproduce the cosmos holo correctly but I think they could fake modern shimmer holos with a little more effort.

[YogiTheCollector]

Good point. Output is equal to or overrides what you potentially get

[YogiTheCollector]

Not condescending at all. Im actually pretty new to this, so for me; I’m learning as we speak. But yes, other things than pkmn are most likely more lucrative to try to copy. And with the output of money required to copy cards, I agree with you, why not go with currency itself?