The price of jumbo boxes are currently significantly higher than the slim boxes. However, the chance of pulling a Pikachu AR out of a jumbo box is 6.24% (1.04% per pack X 6 packs). The chance of pulling a Pikachu AR out of a slim box is 10.5% (0.70% per pack X 15 packs). Do you think this will cause the price of the slim box to rise higher the jumbo box over time? It seems that these sets are a pure chase for the Pikachu AR and the rest of the set is bulk. This should cause the price of the slim packs to rise to ~70% of the value of the jumbo packs even though they are currently at about 25-30%. Is my logic flawed?
The box and packs have the pull odds listed on them. I don’t know how to read Chinese and interpret it. It says 0.70% to pull an SR, SSR, UR or AR from a slim pack. So it might actually be even harder to pull the specific Pikachu AR which would be 0.04% (0.70%/17 cards in the red box).
Something I just discovered that may be more significant related to the Pikachu ARs is PSA has distinguished in the past for Simplified Chinese whether cards come from a slim pack or jumbo pack. This is due to the card coloring and texturing. It says 5 pack or 25 pack variant on the slab. For example Umbreon VMax 173 from 2024 Pokemon Simplified Chinese Cs4a C-Polychromatic Gathering has this distinguished in the pop report.
I am still relatively new to the forum so I am not sure how to go about investigating this. How can we get someone to compare a Pikachu AR pulled from a jumbo pack to one pulled from a slim pack to see if there are differences? So far two cards Pikachu AR 170/151 and 171/151 have been released that can be compared.
I think the pull rates are not “per pack”, but “per card”. So for any card in a normal booster, there’s a 80 % chance it is a C/UC card on average, or a 0.7 % chance for a SR/SSR/AR/UR card.
The jumbo packs not only do have better pull rates per card, but also 4x the amount of cards, resulting in significantly higher chances to pull a Pikachu AR.
That makes sense, thanks! The boxes cost approximately the same on a $ per card basis. So if the pull rate percentages are higher on a per card basis you would get more value with the jumbo box.
Thanks! Is there anyway to verify this by people on here sharing Pikachu AR cards they pulled from both types of packs? I feel it is worth exploring given that there have been confirmed differences in other simplified Chinese sets.
This is information from retailer sites and during pack opening videos. Sorry, I don’t have them to hand. This was during the release of the first box. They acknowledged how the previous sets ARs had differences and highlighted this set did not. Which led to only buy and open Jumbo boxes.
Thanks! That is useful information. Isn’t it possible that Journey and Hope come from different print runs though due to their staggered release dates?
I appreciate the help! On a separate note going back to my original question. Is there still more long term upside potential in slim box price appreciation even with lower hit rates? The current price of under $5 per pack can still 5-10x to $25-50 per pack which is reasonable for rippers looking for a chance to hit a $2k PSA 10. The absolute starting price of $20 per jumbo pack means a 5x puts opening one pack at $100 which is less appealing relative imo. I’m planning on holding the sealed boxes for long term (10+ years). Which type of box do you think will retain more value from a sealed perspective? I know eventually boxes can diverge from card prices inside and become the collectible regardless of card prices inside. Any sentiment towards which box collectors of this set are choosing? Thanks!
All I can say is, presently I’ve only bought Jumbos (for myself, not speculation) and generally observed that Jumbos sell out before Slims, on sites where both are sold.
It’s more important that you actually hold them 10+ years, most won’t!
That’s some good insight! I know every market is different. I will need to buy both then. Looking to load up on the Surprise box, the Gengar art is awesome.
