Japanese set cards and Japanese exclusive promos/trophies are two completely different beasts. The former is still largely seen as a “budget” option to English, or whatever the collector’s native language is.
For Japanese cards containing unique artwork that were not released in any other language, they are the only game in town. Both limited distribution promos and trophies are in small overall quantity and can only be obtained in Japanese, meaning if someone wants the card they can’t be picky about the language. Some of these cards have really exploded in popularity during the recent boom (Masaki Gengar, McDonald’s Squirtle e-card, Mew ex 7000 Points) but there are still many which have remained stagnant due to being rather niche. I personally feel this is the area that will see the largest growth in the future for Japanese cards.
Yeah, true. If there is no choice, you have to go with what is presented. But if there is a choice, I would go for Englisch for the two reasons I stated. Unless of course there is a special connection with Japanese cards.
Modern for low to mid tier, vintage for high end.. I would say its pretty well balanced and should stay the same..while there are set outliers, vintage will still climb but i think new collectors just prefer modern as thats their norm, also a large portion of new collectors are in it to see financial growth..so they prefer to buy a promo cheap and wait for it to boom sell half and keep doing the same..smart strategy really..im seeing some new fellas even make some cash and roll it into some vintage grails as well..so yeah well balanced…but if i may speculate this bull run isnt over, christmas is coming..
Just for context that 2060 is a good 35 years away and if you agree that it is a reasonable timeline for cards of our generation to boom; even stuff like sunbreon would be 35 years old by then; which ironically turn it into a kinda vintage card.
With that in mind, if someone were to tell you that the neo umbreon and sunbreon were to be conveniently tossed into the same category of “cards released in Pokemon’s first 30 years” by some youth born in 2045, would you still go out to purchase a sunbreon today or your preferences are still restricted to the very very very beginning couple sets of Pokemon TCG?
What percentage of your collection/investment is wotc vintage right now and is your current portfolio subconsciously making you choose to lean towards a certain outcome and missing out on the opportunity costs of potential big hits released the past 8 to 10 years which could potentially be a big hitter in 2060?
I think most of vintage is where it should be but some stuff goes stupidly cheap in auctions. I think a lot of modern is way overpriced.
I think vintage has way better fundamentals for the long-term future. I think people will still be nostalgic about this era of modern but it still doesn’t justify the current prices vs population reports. I struggle to see how modern cards going for hundreds or thousands have much room to grow when there are currently vintage/mid-era cards going for sub $20 at 2-3 decades old.
Some food for thought is that when I got back into collecting in 2015, most PSA 9 WOTC holos were already 15 years old and under $30 each whereas today some <5 years old chase cards are 1 weeks or even 1 months salary to the average person
I think going forward it’s going to come down almost more to individual cards than what era it’s from. There’s tons of vintage cards that have basically seen little to no growth, and then tons that have grown in price and demand over time. Same with modern, we can all easily point to the ‘winners’ of each era for the most part.
I guess what’s mainly different to me though is that the vintage cards that have grown a lot of feel more ‘established’ to me. Like people understand why something like Base Set Charizard or a Trophy type card is so expensive, popular, etc. In other words, I kind of feel more confident in the idea of dropping $2K or $5K on some vintage holo or rare promo compared to some post 2020 SWSH or S&V era card that went from like $100 to $1500 in 6 months or a year.
The main reasons being is that the growth on the vintage side generally took way longer and continued that growth over many years and decades for that matter. That type of longer term trend just feels a lot more established and ‘organic’ to me.
So I’m not sure what to call this, I guess it’s price discovery? That’s about the only thing that worries me about modern, is the pricing over the rather short period of time. Is it sustainable or not? So far, it’s continued to surprise me in terms of the growth and it seems like nothing is holding it back. The demand is clearly there for now. But I really sometimes wonder if in 10, 15, 20 years.. will the market look at these current modern cards with the same level of prestige and value of vintage cards?
Regardless, I’m happy that people are enjoying both modern & vintage. This tells me that Pokemon is healthy and here to stay. Compared to other hobbies, it’s really an ideal scenario to me. When both markets are heatlhy, both markets should also benefit from one another over time. Any time a vintage card breaks a new record at auction, it creates a good headline or news clip. Then with modern cards, it creates these on-going dicussions and speculation about where it could all end up.
Overall though, I’d just focus on what you understand and enjoy best. I’ve dabbled some in modern, but find my comfort & greater confidence in collecting mainly vintage. I made some big purchases in vintage during the 2022/2023 pullbacks and it’s paid off well. Turns out that a lot of modern purchased during that time would also have paid off. So I would really just collect what you enjoy, and if you feel something is undervalued or seems like an opportunity to sell down the road, just go for it
I’ve been to a few card shows recently and been told, at least on this side of the world, vintage cards move slower. When you’re comparing holos to full art cards, it’s not a very fair competition. Then if we fast forward decades, there’ll be tens of thousands more cards and at least a dozen+ more full art cards of the popular Pokemon. The only real separation is art in the longer timeframe.
Of course the popularity of the Pokemon itself matters but yeah, I think how old the card is will matter less the longer time goes on. It’s individual cards with specific Pokemon and specific art. So really, as many have said before, just buy what you like.
I respect your view. I do think that you are forgetting that the fact that vintage cards move slower now does not mean that that will always be the case. As far as the art; saying that modern looks better objectively (not sure if that´s what your doing, but just in case) is not true. Opinions vary, and may change.
Another thing to remember is that, while it is true that modern cards will become vintage one day, the first sets will always be the first. That matters.
Yeah, it probably is. The mind wants to believe what it knows best. At the same time though, I truly believe that the lower POP´s of vintage cards, combined with the fact that they will always remain the start of Pokémon will make them the best choice. This seems to be logic. If only a fraction of newer fans wants some ´true´ vintage (WotC) then these prices should go up.
Vintage will win in the long run. Art will always continuously get better and the cards popular right now might not be popular in 10 years but the vintage will always have their historical presence.
A lot of old regular holos are just that: regular holos. It feels like people here put all vintage cards in the same group, but they don’t all have the same appeal or importance.
Base Set makes sense since it’s the first one. But after that… only a few rare cards really hold value, like the Shinings or Crystals, because they’ve always been seen as special. But regular Neo holos for example? I think there’s not much reason for them to stay valuable.
There is though. First of all, these cards are often beautiful. You can´t just say ´regular holo´ like it´s a holo card comparable to the holo cards we see today. Also, the Neo cards are the first cards of many popular Pokémon like Espeon, Umbreon and Scizor. That holds value.
IMO art is a lesser important fundamental and very subjective. I understand the appeal of modern cards having more going on, but sometimes less is more. Personally I prefer the simplicity of WOTC holos through my own nostalgia, and have little interest in modern full art cards.
I can appreciate that the modern art is better on paper but I’d compare it to classic films where the new ones may have better technology or CGI but lack the x factor
Wait until you find out how many cards out of each modern set hold real, sustainable value. What you are describing is the collectible nature of TCG sets - only a few cards out of every set will hold value, while most are worth very little or nothing at all.
This is exactly what seems to be lost these days. I appreciate what modern brings, but a lot of people act like modern is better. I sometimes doubt if the people that say that with such conviction have ever held a good looking WotC holo in their hands. They have their own charm.
The whole “modern has better art” sentiment is starting to bug me a little. There is a ton of amazing art in modern, but there is also a ton of amazing art in vintage. Sure, you could say a lot of vintage is static with stock art backgrounds, but likewise a lot of vintage is just static and flat especially with normal full arts. I feel like the only aspects that make modern more revered are the bigger canvas and textures. And that makes sense, but it’s not like the art itself is any better. For the most part, statements like that are completely subjective. So the presentation of the art has gotten better arguably in those ways, but saying the older art is worse feels like it does many of those original artists a disservice.
But then again, this is probably what people mean when they say modern has “better art,” and I’m just bring up semantics that aren’t really relevant to this discussion.
I should start by saying I am a vintage collector. It’s where my heart is. But I think the future of vintage is promising. It’s all wildly underpriced right now and extra significant to the hobby. To compound its significance, vintage also has lower population counts.
As the hobby moves forward I believe scarcity and significance will take over the front seat. With MTG everyone still wants a Black Lotus. There’s been wildly better looking cards since, much like in Pokemon. But the scarcity and importance of the card is above that.
What you are describing is the collectible nature of TCG sets - only a few cards out of every set will hold value, while most are worth very little or nothing at all.