I am aware of some higher earners who are buying vintage now but didn’t before.
In addition to greater disposable income. The reason they didn’t participate during the COVID boom is simply because they were unaware it was happening.
It was not on their radar at all. Despite being Pokemon fans who played Red/Blue at release and even Pokemon Go too.
PSA need to introduce PSA11, Gem Mint +
That’ll shift the meta alright.
Or PSA “PBL” Pristine Black Label.
If only these high earners were buying 3 months ago, they would have saved 2/3 of their money and everything I sold wouldn’t have 3x’d in value 
if they were buying 2 years ago (which isnt really that long ago and no giant ass pandemic this time around) they wouldve saved 19/20ths of their money 
If they were to have bought 20 years ago they would have saved 999/1000ths of their money… Oh what dummies 
not really possible when most ppl were in elementary school or younger and you would be trading 18 years for basically the other 1/20th vs saving 95% for only 2 years or can u not do math 
A lot’s already been said, but here’s how I see it.
If someone wants a specific card, there really isn’t a substitute. That sounds obvious, but it matters. Take a WOTC set card or a vintage promo. If a collector has that card in mind, they’re not replacing it with something else. Their choice is simple: buy the best possible copy or settle for a lower-grade version.
For cards with large print runs, like set cards and most promos, there are usually plenty of lower-grade copies available. So the real question becomes how far down the condition scale buyers are willing to go. For most graded collectors, the floor tends to sit around PSA 7 to 9. Once you dip below that, it starts to feel more like “I’ll revisit this later” or “maybe I’ll hunt for a raw copy instead.”
Importantly, when people pass on a card, it’s usually not because they found an alternative. It’s because they’re waiting. They still want that exact card, they just don’t like the current price and are hoping for a better entry point. I’m in that position myself with several cards right now. I mostly collect PSA 9s, and the only 10s I own are ones I graded myself. I don’t buy them outright. If I want a specific set card, I want that card. But if the price feels too high, I might consider dropping to an 8. A lot of collectors are in this same spot.
So in practice, the “alternative” isn’t a different card. It’s a conditional downgrade.
That only applies to widely printed cards, though. Once you move into truly scarce items like trophies and ultra-rare promos, there often isn’t even that flexibility. You either buy what’s available or you miss out. Buyers in that space tend to fall into two groups: solid earners who stretch for key pieces, and genuinely wealthy collectors.
Some rare cards are still niche enough to be attainable in the mid four-figure to low five-figure range, which gives buyers at least a fighting chance. But for high-profile, extremely scarce trophies and promos, it’s a different world entirely. Those buyers aren’t thinking in terms of alternatives or even price. They’re paying whatever it takes in the moment to secure the card. There is no alternative for them. They either buy it or they shift interest elsewhere.
Agreed.
When I was in high school (many moons ago) the prevailing wisdom that everyone needs to go to college and get a degree. It didn’t matter what the degree was in. You were simply encouraged to get one because the counselors, the teachers, the parents etc all came from a time when any degree = more money.
Some got degrees of value. Most didn’t.
I feel a similar trend is going on with modern sealed. “If only I stashed away a base first edition box.”
IMO the reason that box has value is because few had the wherewithall to stash it. The opposite is true today. Who knows what will happen though. It truly is a wild card
It still is true in the form of a self-fulfilled prophecy because just about all sealed products acquired at MSRP in the current supply shortage continue to gain value - it’s just happening so much faster than before. The more popular hoarding culture becomes, the more drastic the shortage feels and more dire FOMO gets. People are betting that TPC won’t be able to do anything about it until their additional facilities are operational, and they’re succeeding especially with this boom
I’m also wondering, moreso English than Japanese, whether the theoretical supply of single cards ever really reaches the market or reaches it in a consistent enough manner to affect the price.
TCGPlayer has become the de facto market price even though it represents a fraction of the market. Their data is used by so many apps presenting collectors a ‘market price’ when more transactions take place off of TCGPlayer than on it.
It’s still mad how the modern English chase cards hardly drop and often rise in price when the supply is at an all time high.
Vintage is unfortunately a status symbol at this point. There are basically entire livelihoods and egos at stake in making sure the price floor keeps going up. As investors enter the space looking for quick returns through constant pumps, the price floor will probably rise more rapidly in the coming years (we’re seeing the beginnings of this now obviously.)
I tend to be a doomer on the issue of the affordability of the HAHBEE in general. Though I would love (and hope) to be proven wrong!
Another question could be: should there be a cheaper option?
I don’t follow sales to much, but aren’t those auctioned cards the same as sold a few years ago. Same cert number.
PSA is simply grading different, I am still sending hundreds of cards from my own collection. All pulled from the same cases in the past. While I got 9’s and 10’s not to long ago, I now get 7/8’s.
The value gains a lot of collections have seen over the last 10 years are life-changing and it wouldn’t surprise me if more people start to take that opportunity. It’s not uncommon for people to own several cards, each worth a weeks or even a months wages.
I considered my collection modest compared to what I’ve saw on social media, nothing high-end but by downsizing and selling off a lot of the stuff I didn’t need took me to a different level financially to everyone around me outside of Pokemon cards.
Things can change all the time and there’s no guarantee that people will always pay 3 or 4 figures for mass produced cards in plastic slabs. Personally I’ll always love vintage Pokemon cards, but beyond my childhood collection it’s a huge amount of money to turn down to keep a stack of slabs when it can be used to sort other areas of life like having a house or traditional yielding investments.
Whilst vintage should be a much safer bet than modern, I have still seen rare-old-mint low-pop or popular stuff go cheap during a boom and that tells me that anything is possible
What I want to know is how many buyers are lifelong or returning Pokémon fans who now have “adult money” (which I personally view as kind of an offensive term since it infantilizes anyone who’s not rich but whatever) who want to buy back pieces of their childhood, and how many buyers are speculators buying for potential upside.
And don’t get me started on the egos. The scum on Insta that refer to regular working people as “poors”/”brokies” deserve to lose everything. Like bro, you literally manipulate the market on trading cards for a living and “recruit” people to invest - you’re not special.
And it’s not even exclusive to cards - Instagram as a whole is a cesspool of evil.
Craziest part is the market has only continued to get stronger with each boom. 2016 we saw the rise of vintage. 2020 we saw vintage go even higher and we saw out of print modern skyrocket. This current boom, even in-print modern is now going for insane prices, and we’re now seeing institutional money pouring in thanks to frequent mainstream media coverage.
If this trend continues and the market keeps getting stronger, what’s the next step? The normalization of fractional shares???
You can buy a fractional share of a mid era reverse holo for 30$ 
I’m not sure whether to laugh because of how absurd that sounds or be scared because of how many absurd things have already happened with the market over thr past decade, nothing’s impossible at this point. Hell, even as recently as 2023, the idea of Wall Street seriously buying cards as an investment would have sounded absurd.
