I have been looking at the PSA pop report for the Fan Club point cards and the upper end of the Daisuki Club point cards. For those who don’t know, the Fan Club / Play Promo / Daisuki Club point cards were cards released in Japan. You couldn’t purchase them, instead you accumulated points by completing various Pokemon-related activities, and a certain amount of points would ‘unlock’ certain cards as rewards.
So the PSA numbers for the cards in question are:
Card
Points needed
Amount of graded cards
Amount of PSA 10s
Fan Club Eevee
500
137
62
Fan Club Shining Magikarp
600
78
16
Fan Club Porygon
700
162
51
Daisuki Raichu
5,200
32
24
Daisuki Espeon
7,200
25
18
Daisuki Umbreon
7,200
22
19
Daisuki Master’s Scroll
8,600
49
26
The PSA 10 pop count is more of a side information here, the total pop count is what this post is about. Maybe you can see what I’m getting at. My question is: Why doesn’t the pop count decrease in a linear manner when in fact, each card with a higher point barrier should have been distributed less than the preceding card?
For example, why are there so much less graded copies of the Fan Club Magikarp, or rather, why are there so many graded copies of the Fan Club Porygon?
For the Daisuki cards, the outlier is the Master’s Scroll. Why does it have twice as many graded copies as Espeon and Umbreon? Espeon and Umbreon required the same number of points, so maybe they were distributed in tandem and each recipient got only one of them?
I’m also inclined to rule out the possibility that people just didn’t grade the cards with lower point limits as much as the cards at the top because they thought they wouldn’t be valuable enough to warrant a grading. All of the cards mentioned here are already high-end, and if you have one of those cards in good condition, chances are you want to grade them. The Shining Magikarp in particular is not a card for which I would expect many ungraded copies in good condition to be in circulation.
What do you think? How can we make sense of the pop numbers? Could it be that the accumulated points that were ‘spent’ on a card were subtracted from your overall accumulated points and not available for further rewards anymore? In that case the higher pop count for the last card of the respective era (Porygon and Master’s Scroll) could make sense because people were saving up for the final card. However, we don’t see this phenomenon with the Play Promos from the Ex era (with those, the pop count decreases in a linear fashion as the point barrier becomes higher). Maybe someone who knows more about how the point system worked can enlighten us here.
Maybe is it unique art? Shining Magikarp had a set release and is in English (ignoring the Destiny vs. Rev Shining style). Also, Raichu, Espeon, and Umbreon were Prime cards in (I believe) HS Undaunted in English but (again I believe) were never in any of the Japanese Legend sets. That seems to be the common theme. Yes it is objectively difficult to acquire the Umbreon Prime, but for a while they were a dime a dozen in English and I can’t imagine they’re too expensive even now. That’s the only common theme I see but I don’t know if that’s a strong enough reason. Keep in mind also the Espeon and Umbreon Gold Stars, which also had similar releases (though the English counterparts are much more difficult to acquire than the prime ones) and those Japanese ones are much more expensive. I don’t really know but the exclusivity part could be a driving factor.
The thing people tend to forget about the pop report is that it’s almost always a better indicator of demand than supply. For instance, there are more PSA 10 1st edition Charizards currently graded than PSA 10 shadowless grass energy. You allude to this in your post but I don’t think you can simply “rule out” this fact. You also have to consider regrades will be counted in the pop. I know of at least one person who regraded their fan club cards to a 10, that one event explains ~2% of the pop alone and is probably the tip of the iceberg.
You’re also looking at cards where the vast majority are likely sitting in Japan, still ungraded. Are certain cards more likely to be sold by the Japanese? Are westerners (responsible for grading the majority of these) disproportionately buying some of these over others? Maybe, as you mention, the players just prefer saving points and going for the big ones? or many the Japanese players who won these cards are just more often selling the biggest one because they think it will be the biggest payout?
The point I’m getting to is that the data is totally unreliable if you’re using it to extrapolate anything about the number of copies of these cards produced. You’re dealing with ridiculously small numbers to do any sort of meaningful statistics, especially in the case of the daisuki cards, and the way these numbers are being produced are biased in so many ways I’ve mentioned. I realize this isn’t a satisfying answer at all but the reality is you shouldn’t take anything from these pop numbers outside of a vague idea of how many are potentially available.
@miraclegro, I haven’t factored in the Japanese unique artwork (or lack thereof) yet. I didn’t consider it because I assumed that since the cards were distributed in Japan, Japanese people wouldn’t care about that aspect and the card’s behavior on the international market when grading a card, especially not back in the days. Of course it’s not just Japanese people who grade those cards, so there might be something to it.
@pkmnflyingmaster,I get your point, and I take the pop report with a grain of salt. But with such stark discrepancies (for example between Magikarp and Porygon), I think it’S fair to ask why. Even if we go purely by demand, now would be the time where we should see a huge influx of newly graded Magikarp, as they have been selling for huge amounts recently. And sure, maybe the pop count wil increacse a lot in the coming months or years, but personally I can’t see it happening.
Also I’m anything but certain that people ‘lost’ their points once they received a reward. Just going by logic, it would make more sense if the points were nothing more than milestones that enable you to get a card at that milestone, not something like currency. But again, I don’t know.
There are a ton of the magikarps out there ungraded. I see them quite often on JP Yahoo. Sometimes there’s like 3 or 4 of them listed at once. And they are the daisuki variant. I just never seem to see them at a price that Im comfortable with. Probably because I’m broke.
@pizzachu
The current selection of ebay/yahoo seems fine but I must say in the past it has been common issue to see same Fan Club Magikarp listed multiple times, 1 by original owner and rest of listings have stolen pictures and slightly higher price.
Imho. it’s really hard to find good deals for this card anymore, one of the most interesting prize cards from early years.
@pkmnflyingmaster , I believe the word you were looking for is ‘allude’, not elude but nice try.
Quick Questions, since I’m pretty new to these Japanese Daisuki Fan club promo cards. (Perfect timing, after FlyingScott’s consideration of pop, whos grading, where they are held). Okay let’s say there’s many variables at play that may produce the current japanese pops… To simplify, we assume the card that has the most points to acquire for the year is likely top valued, less acquired since it required so many points. There are many years of Daisuki Japanese Promo Cards…
To my question: Why are you focusing on the 2010 Daisuki promos, I know it has the master scroll in it… But that’s the highlight? There are many years of Fan Club promos, why 2010? Was there something special about the 2010, versus any of the other years? Ie. 2004 Pokedude is also over the 1k range. There are some years that the fan club points exceed the Master Scroll’s 8,600 points too…
Even if we go by Pkmnflyingmaster’s consideration that Pop reports shows demand more then supply, there are fan club top cards that have twice as many pop 10 and grades compared to the Master Scroll.
And did someone here recently grade a lot of Darkrai 10,000pt #007’s? @smpratte ? I didn’t think the pop report was so high earlier this year… PSA 10 is at 65 copies now.
The daisuki primes are 5-10x more expensive than there english counterparts. Those primes where never in a japanese card set, so thats the only way to get them in japanese.
They are very niche card/card’s because the overwhelming majority of people collect english, they are one of the few cards that is vastly more expensive in japanese than english. At the moment Japanese dont really grade cards so westerns are only getting copies and grading them if they really really want it (most people who want one of those primes are going to buy an english one), thats why there are less graded than the master scroll which is a totally unique card and the artwork is only available as that promo
I didn’t read all the posts but the points had to be turned in to get the card. For example someone has 1200 points, they can get a Porygon and an Eevee, the points then go away. It’s not a milestone to reach, where if you have 700 points you get all three cards. Magikarp is an unpopular option because you can get the same artwork from revelations, and it cost a lot of points to get. Eevee and Porygon were much more likely to get points spent on them.
That’s interesting (and kinda unexpected). Do you know if this system of having to spend points was used for all eras (fan club, play promos and daisuki) or only for the fan club cards?
Ill let someone else speak for Daisuki, that’s outside my expertise. I wouldn’t be shocked if they made it a milestone accomplishment with the higher point totals needed.
In terms of play promos vs the 2010 daisuke promos could it could be possible that they changed the amount of points that each action awarded because not very many people reached the higher tier of play promo rewards? This would potentially be evidenced by the lack of umbreon and espeon cards that we see compared to the amounts of the other three gold stars from the play promo set? If this was the case then it would make sense that more of the higher point rewards are seen from the later set as it would have been easier to obtain more points. I have no evidence to support it but it’s something that crossed my mind as possible when reading the thread.
Play promos required your points to be “cashed in” to receive the cards. 2003 & 2004 had mew ex 007 as the highest option (7,000 points) many players cashed in and “purchased” the mew ex, or celebi, minum, pulse etc. say you had 7000 points and wanted the celebi well then it would cost you 5,000 points, So if you decided you wanted the mew it was time to start saving because you now only have 2000 points left. As far as the eeveeloution play promos they were only up for grabs for one year in 2005. There were a lot of players that I’m sure didn’t know of the release and already spent their points the previous year, hence saving to 10,000, 20,000, 30,000, 50,0000 and 70,000 points was quite the task especially since you only had one year to do so and the point numbers were massive. I feel the play promo eeveeloutins really correlate with the pop and points awarded due to the limited time to acquire these cards and having to cash out in a 1 year span. A HUGE factor in your data is going to be how many years was each card rewarded. Once you take that to the table it may start making more sense.
They changed the point structures pretty regularly even along the same events. So this is definitely the case as well, example: I don’t think 30,000 points in the play promo set was equivalent to 30,000 points in the Dasuki set.
That’s kinda crazy when you think about it. Was it clear from the very beginning which play promos would be the top cards? Probably not, but this would have made reclaiming prices a gamble. Do you take the Mew Ex because right now it seems to be the top of the mountain, or do you hold on to your points for whatever comes? And then the Gold Stars came…
As for your other comment, I believe Scott mentioned once that the points during the Daisuki era were indeed not as hard to claim as the points during the play promo era. I’m not sure though.
Yep, exactly no one had any idea the gold stars were coming until 2005, so I’m sure many were going for the Mew Ex prior. And yes I believe he mentioned that as well. The way and amounts of points you could gain always varied throughout the years. 10000 points in the player clubs could’ve been close to 5,000 point in daisuki. We really don’t know exactly but just an idea of a possibility
@ripguyfawkes I was told that the Fan Club Magikarp was available later than Eevee or Porygon, and even it’s worth less points, people may just spent theirs on the other 2 cards. That may be a factor that helps to explain what you ask. (if it’s true)
