I personally still feel that TCGPlayer is contributing to this with their opaque data.
The spike for graded prices increased after the spike for raw cards.
The last time I pointed out a manipulated card within a day of it being so and it seemed to be fixed. This time I let it sit, it seems to have taken over a month for them to filter out the offending sale but you can still see it affect the price history graph. This is for a bulk common.
So without telling us who the buyer is or whether the sales actually go through, the data is easily manipulated and has real market impact. This is undoubtedly happening for pricier cards as I pointed out before, but itâs much easier seen in random commons like this. Personally it seems like bad actors testing out their strategies on easily overlooked cards.
Take also into account the PSA returns that were quite high with faster than usual turn around that also created a sudden supply spike that hit the market back in Nov/Dec. Most likely you can also see it in the PSA pop report. PSA slab supply was also a temporary factor.
Then late December is a quiet month⊠I think the next few months will tell more about the strength of the price of the card.
Oct-Nov (also the highest paid month from youtube revenue - Nov is where advertiser are all in during the most important month for them ), so many influencers jumped in the hype waggon as it was clearly attracting viewership⊠Jan onward, the focus will shift toward crown zenith and scarlet & violet⊠So there will be less hype and focus on Evolving skies in general.
Last a bubble and a temporary spike due to a temporary low supply or hype spike are two different beats. Price fundamentals are damaged by a bubble. Price spikes, due to temporary conditions which is what I think was at play, are naturally followed by healthy retracement
Note: In late 2020-2021 pokemon graded slab prices went out of controlâŠbecause most graded company were closed and supply was artificially kept low while demand was unusually high - a recipe for unsustainable prices⊠Since then, prices corrected to their normal levels once the supply came back to normal, and the hyper hype receded. Today the market is healthier thanks to healthy turnaround from PSA/Beckett/CGC.
Iâve finally gotten around to running the Japanese sales for those of you who are interested.
I compiled 32 sales of the Japanese PSA 10 Eevee Heroes Umbreon VMAX Alt Art from 10/24/22 to 1/11/23.
Non-USD currencies were converted to USD and rounded. Auctions and buy-it-now (BINs) were included. All sales data (including best offer prices) came from https://130point.com and are available upon request. I checked BINs to ensure that the card was not relisted.
Each red dot in the figure represents an individual sale. The blue line is the moving average estimated from the regression with 95% confidence intervals. The regression line was smoothed using a generalized additive model (GAM).
Anyway if youâre true collector, you wonât care what price it is, you wonât care what the naysayers are saying, what you will only care is the beauty of the artwork.
Collectors get burnt? I donât even care if it drops to $20. Not selling my PSA 10 copy unless the price is very attractive (like $3000).
Looking at @dyl data from the top the line is going down still from the peak and is now below the starting point before the ascension of the initial rise.
TCGFish has already done it for me in the graph above. I made the original graphs during the typical lag before the sales populated on TCGFishâs website.
As sick as people are of this card, and I say this as someone who had a CGC perfect and a black label of it, it really does deserve to be a sought after main stay. Iâm glad to see it stabilizing in the 950-1k range.
Or maybe Iâm just rooting for it because Iâm sick of the waifu cards.
Data can be made to look like anything someone wishes to show. Someone needs to pick a starting point. From the original graph what Iâve said is what is shown.
I like how youâve done yours. What grading companies and grades did you include just so I know thanks. Everything psa 10? Some sales look really low so just checking.
