The Giant English Market Thread

[chrispy]

@pokeqween In relation to your $10,000 enjoyment + investment

Any trophy card you can get in that range is a win, a few championships arenas are wins, or 1st edition wotc holos in a high grade could be a win (look at last sold prices for whatever grade when beginning to price things out)

[sgpokecollect]

PSA 7 1st edition charizard seems ok to me; i noticed the prices are still very close in the lower grade 1st base cards - that should widen overtime

[null_user]

@chrispy

@pokeqween In relation to your $10,000 enjoyment + investment

Any trophy card you can get in that range is a win, a few championships arenas are wins, or 1st edition wotc holos in a high grade could be a win (look at last sold prices for whatever grade when beginning to price things out)

thanks for the reply

I was looking at psa 9 shadowless zards or psa 9 1st ed blastoise as they seemed to have hit their reflection points in the retrace

or

in terms of trophy

2006 Pokemon Japanese Championship Arena Autumn Battle Road PSA 10 I quite liked

I also find the tropical wind cards very cool

also interested in fanclub evie love the artwork an it seems pretty rare also

[null_user]

@sgpokecollect

PSA 7 1st edition charizard seems ok to me; i noticed the prices are still very close in the lower grade 1st base cards - that should widen overtime

thanks for the reply, this did cross my mind actually but I already have it in an 8 so I figured I would try something else

[wisewailmer]

@pokeqween

@sgpokecollect

PSA 7 1st edition charizard seems ok to me; i noticed the prices are still very close in the lower grade 1st base cards - that should widen overtime

thanks for the reply, this did cross my mind actually but I already have it in an 8 so I figured I would try something else

sealed boxes or packs from a reputable seller can also be safe to hold. But the reputable seller bit cant be overstated lol
Its different from getting packs on ebay because if from a box break you get the break odds per box and actual unweighed plus lights are mint to grade

[justinmew]

You can get a lot of middle tier prize and trophy cards for 10k and less. A lot of people on this forum are after those cards. I think your best bet is to read the forum a bit more and to do your own research. A lot of the eBay prices are a little high in my opinion, almost double of the market value so you need to be careful. If you do some research you can get these cards at a lower price, whether it is waiting for a auction, buying from Japan or buying off IG. There is a post with a list of cards that have less than 1000 copies total distributed. That’s a good starting place.

[grandgengar]

@justinmew

You can get a lot of middle tier prize and trophy cards for 10k and less. A lot of people on this forum are after those cards. I think your best bet is to read the forum a bit more and to do your own research. A lot of the eBay prices are a little high in my opinion, almost double of the market value so you need to be careful. If you do some research you can get these cards at a lower price, whether it is waiting for a auction, buying from Japan or buying off IG. There is a post with a list of cards that have less than 1000 copies total distributed. That’s a good starting place.

Where is this list?

[thymeee]

@grandgengar

@justinmew

You can get a lot of middle tier prize and trophy cards for 10k and less. A lot of people on this forum are after those cards. I think your best bet is to read the forum a bit more and to do your own research. A lot of the eBay prices are a little high in my opinion, almost double of the market value so you need to be careful. If you do some research you can get these cards at a lower price, whether it is waiting for a auction, buying from Japan or buying off IG. There is a post with a list of cards that have less than 1000 copies total distributed. That’s a good starting place.

Where is this list?

www.elitefourum.com/t/master-list-of-the-rarest-pokemon-cards/28390/1
there ya go

[zorloth]

For $10k? If you want a “safe” investment (safe within the context of Pokemon), ****slow pop growth**** PSA 10 1st Ed. WotC holos are relatively safe. Emphasis on slow pop growth. Any PSA 10 1st Ed. holo that has had <4 copies added the PSA 10 pop over the past year. This insulates you from the risk of tons of new supply hitting the market since it’s likely not that many more copies are still to be added to the pop report.

You may not receive amazing returns on these, though. But they probably won’t retrace too significantly either.

[serpintaxt]

@grandgengar

@justinmew

You can get a lot of middle tier prize and trophy cards for 10k and less. A lot of people on this forum are after those cards. I think your best bet is to read the forum a bit more and to do your own research. A lot of the eBay prices are a little high in my opinion, almost double of the market value so you need to be careful. If you do some research you can get these cards at a lower price, whether it is waiting for a auction, buying from Japan or buying off IG. There is a post with a list of cards that have less than 1000 copies total distributed. That’s a good starting place.

Where is this list?

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/109HFCo4qNyd1jI0zxGOqidqsgQ1rcNPvXeythmKCL4Y/edit#gid=0

wow 3 of us replied in 2 minutes, what is this discord?

[admiral]

@bobleponge

Have you done the data for the Neo series 1st edition?

[null_user]

@admiral

@bobleponge

Have you done the data for the Neo series 1st edition?

Not as exhaustively. The sales volume of common and uncommon 1st Edition Neo cards is so low that one cannot model the expected value as accurately. I don’t know if we should consider this as a positive or a negative. Are people not as interested in bulk 1st Edition Neo cards or are they just too hard to come by?

Neo Genesis may be the most interesting Neo set. The average holo rare card value is $1,506 (data from March 1st and using the more conservative $76,100 PSA 10 Lugia value, still using 15%/60%/25% distribution, which may be too optimistic with this set that is known for grading low). This compares very well to 1st Edition Jungle, for instance, which has an average holo rare worth $574 (data from March 14th). However, the non-holo rares from Neo Genesis have a very low value (lots of type cards) and, in general, the bulk of Neo sets appears to have a similar value to the bulk of first gen sets. The expected value of the 1st Edition Neo Genesis box isn’t too far from its market value, but it’s most definitely lower. It’s a risky play, as it’s strongly tied to the value of few cards, most notably the PSA 10 Lugia, which has skyrocketed and may not be sustainable. In fact, I highly doubt that it will maintain its value. Also, if I change the distribution to 10%/60%/30%, the average holo rare value decreases by 18%.

I didn’t analyze the other Neo sets as much, because it appears to me that their expected value is much, much lower than their market value. Neo Destiny is probably the most overvalued one.

I personally am looking for irrationalities that make room for relatively safe investments with a margin of safety. It seems to me like 1st Edition Jungle, Fossil and Team Rocket boxes are undervalued in relation to their content. The market must correct this and, in the short term, I expect either the value of the boxes to increase or the value of the cards to decrease. This gives a margin of safety. Everything else is speculation. That is not to say that other boxes won’t appreciate even more. Rarity of the box as a sealed product is definitely a factor, especially if you have a long-term perspective. That said, if I were to purchase a Neo box, I would make sure to purchase a mint one, as, for now, they are better sitting on a shelf than opened, therefor condition is paramount.

[pokestop702]

@bobleponge

@admiral

@bobleponge

Have you done the data for the Neo series 1st edition?

Not as exhaustively. The sales volume of common and uncommon 1st Edition Neo cards is so low that one cannot model the expected value as accurately. I don’t know if we should consider this as a positive or a negative. Are people not as interested in bulk 1st Edition Neo cards or are they just too hard to come by?

Neo Genesis may be the most interesting Neo set. The average holo rare card value is $1,506 (data from March 1st and using the more conservative $76,100 PSA 10 Lugia value, still using 15%/60%/25% distribution, which may be too optimistic with this set that is known for grading low). This compares very well to 1st Edition Jungle, for instance, which has an average holo rare worth $574 (data from March 14th). However, the non-holo rares from Neo Genesis have a very low value (lots of type cards) and, in general, the bulk of Neo sets appears to have a similar value to the bulk of first gen sets. The expected value of the 1st Edition Neo Genesis box isn’t too far from its market value, but it’s most definitely lower. It’s a risky play, as it’s strongly tied to the value of few cards, most notably the PSA 10 Lugia, which has skyrocketed and may not be sustainable. In fact, I highly doubt that it will maintain its value. Also, if I change the distribution to 10%/60%/30%, the average holo rare value decreases by 18%.

I didn’t analyze the other Neo sets as much, because it appears to me that their expected value is much, much lower than their market value. Neo Destiny is probably the most overvalued one.

I personally am looking for irrationalities that make room for relatively safe investments with a margin of safety. It seems to me like 1st Edition Jungle, Fossil and Team Rocket boxes are undervalued in relation to their content. The market must correct this and, in the short term, I expect either the value of the boxes to increase or the value of the cards to decrease. This gives a margin of safety. Everything else is speculation. That is not to say that other boxes won’t appreciate even more. Rarity of the box as a sealed product is definitely a factor, especially if you have a long-term perspective. That said, if I were to purchase a Neo box, I would make sure to purchase a mint one, as, for now, they are better sitting on a shelf than opened, therefor condition is paramount.

Really enjoying your posts, thanks for the analysis!

[acebren]

@conwaytwitty

1st edition base set anything is gonna go up in price in response to the 25th anniversary stuff this year, right? thinking of buying some commons and uncommons.

Lemme grab my crystal ball

[mcorey777]

My translation of the above statement is here comes abunch more common, uncommon, rare bulk to clog up PSA’s backlog

[elliottledsam]

Super interest thread to read atm. I’m a WOTC and early japanese collector but watching modern sets is crazy. Mirroring the late 80s early 90s in basketball/baseball.

Cards start rising in prices
Average consumers struggle to get product (scalping/low print)
Card companies confuse this for huge increase in demand
Over print huge sets/cut on margin (quality control in latest sets is dreadful)
Market corrects as sets either arent collectable or are just super common

Be interesting to see if Pokemon keeps supply lower than demand but makes chase cards harder to pull in packs…

[admiral]

@acebren

@conwaytwitty

1st edition base set anything is gonna go up in price in response to the 25th anniversary stuff this year, right? thinking of buying some commons and uncommons.

Lemme grab my crystal ball

It’s been 2 hours, what did it say?

[acebren]

@admiral

@acebren

Lemme grab my crystal ball

It’s been 2 hours, what did it say?

It said I need to get a life

[mcorey777]

The crystal ball said those with patience get rewarded. Those that are greedy get discarded

[yz2428]

I just got a message from Beckett about their new fractional ownership on sports cards. we talked about this stock ownership model on collectibles (like owning a stock of Apple) in marquee sports cards and memorabilia in the past on e4, and now it is becoming a thing. the question is how will this affect or not affect pokemon? when will we see a 1st edition psa 10 charizard go up for share distribution? and how many people would be interested? i know many have expressed the fact that this isn’t really collecting in the pure sense anymore, but just pure investing - and i do have to agree. just wanted to hear some thoughts from the community.

www.beckett.com/news/collectable-sports-immortals-partner/