The fomo is real! You see it happen in every overheated market. When prices have shot up 3-4x in a matter of months, thats never a good time to buy, unfortunately its the newbies that have to learn this the hard way.
And I’m not concerned about the crash because I don’t invest in cards, I collect them for a hobby.
3 Likes
ZOOM OUT. and by that i mean, take a look at the graph pertaining to the entire year. 2 years. 3 years. 20. Don’t just fixate on the last week, month.
3 Likes
take base unlim and jungle out and its a lot simpler. Those sets were printed as much as modern but these new investors probably don’t know that so it was obviously not gonna last
When looking at markets and prices, ALWAYS LOOK LEFT!
1 Like
How is it a crash when compared to 1 year ago many cards are 5x, 6x, 10x, 15x.
Take any card compare it to it’s 2019 sale price, can you find a single pokemon card actually selling for less this year then last year?
Challenge started!
Note - The card has to be WOTC and a PSA graded holo 8/9/10!
1 Like
70% decreases? Only on the cards that tripled in price back in October lol. Those things that didn’t spike haven’t decreased at all. Look at e-Series – prices have been basically flat for the past 3-4 months. And they haven’t moved at all since this supposed “crash.”
If by “crash” you mean short-term, speculative “investors” leaving the market. Then fantastic – I welcome this crash. Thus far it has had no perceptible impact on any of the cards I collect.
3 Likes
Is it a crash when a card sells for 2,000 USD in 2019, then reaches 30,000 USD in Oct 2020, and then in Dec 2020 It’s now 15,000?
Is that a crash?
If that’s a crash what on earth is a boom?
9 Likes
Why is this not good for people to start collecting? You should only collect things you like. Why should value matter at all in the equation? And really, the more people who get into something and become part of the demand, the healthier the market is for something. The “growth” that happened wasn’t natural growth. There was external, pseudo investment influence that occurred. Stocks and marketing type of people. The people that leave bad tastes in the interests of the hobby. They are leaving now, so the natural growth that occurred for the last 20 years is steadfast and back to where it was–almost quite exactly to where it was before the little burst, which wasn’t really a growth at all, but a shot of adrenaline, which has a half-life of very little time. No crash occurred.
2 Likes
Possibly the most accurate word from the financial world to capture the behavior your are describing is “bubble”. Lol.
I’m not saying that’s what it was necessarily, though there is a good argument it was on certain singular cards. I do believe (while hoping that I am wrong that certain cards have seen their all time highs and will not ever transact again higher than what they did in the past coupole months) I’m just saying that there are actual widely accepted definitions in financial markets and a “correction” is typically a drop of 10% or more. A 50% is more “crash” territory.
If I considered my “Poke-portfolio” as a whole though my portfolio has certainly dropped a little bit the past two months but overall is substantially up for the year and I feel is safe from substantial declines, though likely to continue to dip slightly over the next few months’ “correction”. I think this could be said of most reasonably diverse collections like what members of this forum would be likely to have.
4 Likes
I’m hoping the “crash” and panic selling of high pop cards that had unsustainable growth trickles down to lower the price of some of the harder to find and lower pop cards that I’m after but I’m not counting on that happening lol
2 Likes
@mitty I cringe a bit when I see the term “intrinsic value” used with respect to Pokemon. It is appropriate for businesses with respect to the value of land, buildings, equipment, raw earnings setting a floor intrinsic value for a business.
From Investopedia - Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth. This measure is arrived at by means of an objective calculation or complex financial model, rather than using the currently trading market price of that asset.
Objectively Pokemon cards are paper and cardboard and worth 0. Coins you can look at and take their base metal value which usually is only a fraction of their numismatic value. Cards really don’t have that though. They are non productive useless collectibles from a cold, objective position. They do have value to many people though for nostalgic reasons etc. but that by definition is comprised of 0 intrinsic value. I’m certainly not trying to advocate that cards should or will return to their intrinsic value of 0, but that is being used completely in the wrong context IMO anytime it enters a Pokemon conversation.
After all that though… that specific card I couldn’t tell you the value today nor has it ever crossed my radar at this time.
9 Likes
This forum seems to be more for those pretty deep in the hobby IMO, and the majority don’t speak. At the beginning of the downturn I saw a lot more people trying to re-hype their collections out of fear. It is very rare for people to broadcast where they have lost until they have won again.
8 Likes
Thank you lol Kid’s cardboard has no intrinsic value.
1 Like
Gold Pikachu would disagree with you on having no intrinsic value. It would be nice to see another card like this for the 25th anniversary.
2 Likes
Just wait for the paper and plastic wars of 2034. I’ll be ready
3 Likes
I think what he meant by intrinsic value was “actual value.” That is, what should the Charizard V be worth based on the appeal of the card to collectors, its supply, etc. Because Pokemon is an easily manipulable market and experiences constant cycles of hype generated by media personalities, it’s often tough to determine what a card would be worth absent the manipulation and hype.
So yes, Pokemon cards have no intrinsic value. There’s nothing intrinsically more valuable about a Base Charizard compared to a Base Poliwrath. But Charizard is more appealing to collectors, so it should demand a higher price. Similarly, a 1st Edition Base Charizard is not intrinisically more valuable than a Base Unlimited Charizard. But both supply and demand are on the side of the 1st Edition Base Charizard: it has less supply than the Unlimited variant and has more appeal to collectors. So its price should be higher. And the market happens to reflect this. But sometimes the market value doesn’t reflect the actual value. I can think of numerous examples of cards that are rarer and have wider collector appeal but are worth less than a card that has more supply and less appeal simply because the latter card is having its price manipulated, or is being hyped, or is the target of speculative demand.
Because of this, it’s absolutely possible to “value invest” in Pokemon. Current market value doesn’t always reflect what something should or will be worth in the future.
1 Like
@zorloth any time I use the word “should” I try and put it in the air quotes.
Every card is priced where is “should” be priced at every time a card transacts. How far that price will be from past and from successive transactions can vary a lot though. Said another way those cards “should” have been higher or lower because that is the way they are going to trend next. This is all hugely subjective which is what I was getting at with my reply. It is so far removed from any conversation using the word “intrinsic value” because intrinsic value is objective and emotionless whereas the word “should” is entirely subjective and often emotional.
“Value investing” in Pokemon is an interesting concept that I have been trying to employ recently in Pokemon. Again it is a very interesting way to use that term to say the least with respect to Pokemon cards, but I get what you are saying. I’ve mentioned recently selling PSA 10 eevee’s and immediately buying light jungle 1st packs. I have many times made that transaction at the same USD price, however I feel that transaction greatly increases the value of my holdings because the ratio of those two prices (and many other things) are not where they “should” be.
4 Likes
I think the vast majority of members in this forum or at least a good chunk, have been collecting for several years so people is not concerned about a crash because most of us all got these cards at very very low prices years ago (at least compared to prices this year). So even if they retrace 50-80% is still higher to what we bought them.
Also, users in this forum tend to be more in the collector side so prices are just a data point but nothing “big of a deal”. Usually when talking about market crash with very recent data would be very naive, you must take a lot of points in your data before calling something “a crash”.
2 Likes
You named one card with intrinsic value (albeit low) out of 15,000 cards lol
1 Like
The market will correct in due time especially for those easy to grade common/uncommon cards. Personally I think a better strategy right now is to sell out of PSA cards that are obviously way above where they should be. It is so obvious now the amount of dumb money we have floating in the market from Logan Paul fans. My guess is the market prices will correct, you will have a period where prices depressed and then increasing back to some point where it stabilizes. Hold your cash off to the side for a bit and then buy when prices correct. At the very least, wait until PSA works through the backlog that way we have a more realistic picture of supply.
1 Like