The Giant English Market Thread

[mosstastic]

As an innocent lurker, I’d like to point out that reading all these posts are still insightful. Does seem like tensions are somewhat high though…

[shizzlemetimbers]

@mosstastic

As an innocent lurker,

[zorloth]

@executive

Has anyone else seen the psa 9 1st ed neo discovery (ND) holo prices…

I know it’s always been the least popular neo set so has always been very cheap, but, what is going on? The prices are ridiculously low.

I’m buying some non holos from other sets for more than a couple of the 1st ed holos from the ND set go for.

The prices don’t seem overly low (relative to other cards) to me.

Hm, next 12 months will be interesting! Strap yourself in collectors, it looks like its going to keep getting bumpier.

Rudy?

[traineramy]

@hisoka107

@traineramy

Going back to a market I actively watch…we’ve just had the 5th psa 9 1st ed blastoise sale in the 9600-10600 range so the market for that has definitely stabilized and seems to be slowly but surely absorbing some supply. Has anyone seen anything similar in the 1st ed psa 9 world?

Is that range up or down from post Logan Paul peak?

I’m not a base set person so it’s hard to know what specific numbers mean when they are said.

The absolute peak was 19700 on pwcc on October 27th

[mosstastic]

@traineramy

@hisoka107

Is that range up or down from post Logan Paul peak?

I’m not a base set person so it’s hard to know what specific numbers mean when they are said.

The absolute peak was 19700 on pwcc on October 27th

Oof. That will be tough to claw back

[EnlightenedBulbasaur]

@mosstastic

@traineramy

The absolute peak was 19700 on pwcc on October 27th

Oof. That will be tough to claw back

There’s a lot of emphasis on what the peak prices for any particular item were, even if such a peak was extremely short-lived.

PSA 9 1st edition holos definitely reached a peak in late October, with sales like the $20k Blastoise sale mentioned. But a few of the sales that occurred at that point were kind of extraordinary. $20k, at the time, was multiple times what the card had been selling for just a few weeks prior to that. A $20k price, if it had held, also would have meant that, if the ratio between PSA 9 and 10 were to look anything like it did before, that a PSA 10 Blastoise would be selling for $100k+ - something that didn’t materialize.

Ultimately, there were just a few sales for PSA 9 1st edition holos in late October that were outliers.

So yes, if your basis of comparison is a few sales from late October, then the market value of those cards has fallen.

And has been mentioned many times, there are still items in the market that are rising, primarily the rarer / more premium stuff.

[traineramy]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@mosstastic

Oof. That will be tough to claw back

There’s a lot of emphasis on what the peak prices for any particular item were, even if such a peak was extremely short-lived.

PSA 9 1st edition holos definitely reached a peak in late October, with sales like the $20k Blastoise sale mentioned. But a few of the sales that occurred at that point were kind of extraordinary. $20k, at the time, was multiple times what the card had been selling for just a few weeks prior to that. A $20k price, if it had held, also would have meant that, if the ratio between PSA 9 and 10 were to look anything like it did before, that a PSA 10 Blastoise would be selling for $100k+ - something that didn’t materialize.

Ultimately, there were just a few sales for PSA 9 1st edition holos in late October that were outliers.

So yes, if your basis of comparison is a few sales from late October, then the market value of those cards has fallen.

And has been mentioned many times, there are still items in the market that are rising, primarily the rarer / more premium stuff.

My question wasn’t about the peak prices or the drop but rather if other cards were stabilizing and absorbing supply, giving a new price floor. The October peak prices brought out supply that I’ve never seen before (at one point there were 14 listed blastoise 9s, psa and bgs) when that was the usual supply for an entire year in the past.

[karmaawhoree]

@zorloth

@karmaawhoree

So I found an auction online from a big auctioneer that sells goverment surplus stuff, bank assets, that kind of shit. they know nothing about pokemon.

It was for a EX Delta Booster box but instead of a factory wrap it was wrapped by someone with a hairdryer. No logo on the wrap, wrap also looked really wrong. too thick, etc.

It sold for 2000$. It was sold as ’ No refunds we dont if its real youre gambling’

So some auctioneers will auction anything off. Even reputable ones. (EDIT: Are they really reputable if they auction this crap off? How about ‘big’ and ‘established’)

I hope there is gem mint honus wagner cards inside but I suspect 2020 energy cards.

Do you have a link? That’s bizarre that someone would spend that on a clearly resealed box.

Regardless, I’m pretty sure HA wouldn’t auction something like that off. Remember: Heritage specializes in collectibles. They’re not just some all-purpose auctioneer.

Good morning! I was able to dig up the link

It was actually an EX Power Keepers box, not EX Delta .

newengland.hibid.com/lot/87943-246865-22395/2007-pokemon-ex-power-keepers-pokemon-booster-box?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=friday_11/27/20

A tampered diamond and pearl box was also sold for 800 in the same auction

newengland.hibid.com/lot/87943-246865-22396/pokemon-diamond-and-pearl-booster-box?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=friday_11/27/20

[EnlightenedBulbasaur]

@traineramy

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

There’s a lot of emphasis on what the peak prices for any particular item were, even if such a peak was extremely short-lived.

PSA 9 1st edition holos definitely reached a peak in late October, with sales like the $20k Blastoise sale mentioned. But a few of the sales that occurred at that point were kind of extraordinary. $20k, at the time, was multiple times what the card had been selling for just a few weeks prior to that. A $20k price, if it had held, also would have meant that, if the ratio between PSA 9 and 10 were to look anything like it did before, that a PSA 10 Blastoise would be selling for $100k+ - something that didn’t materialize.

Ultimately, there were just a few sales for PSA 9 1st edition holos in late October that were outliers.

So yes, if your basis of comparison is a few sales from late October, then the market value of those cards has fallen.

And has been mentioned many times, there are still items in the market that are rising, primarily the rarer / more premium stuff.

My question wasn’t about the peak prices or the drop but rather if other cards were stabilizing and absorbing supply, giving a new price floor. The October peak prices brought out supply that I’ve never seen before (at one point there were 14 listed blastoise 9s, psa and bgs) when that was the usual supply for an entire year in the past.

It’s a good question. The new prices definitely brought out some of the product on a level we don’t typically see, so it’s going through an absorption period. The extent to which the market can absorb the supply will of course determine when prices stabilize / start going back up again. As I’ve said for a while, for the high supply stuff I think there was just too much for the market to absorb at the prices they got up to. But for the highest demand / lower supply stuff, IMO, it’s unlikely that the market will have too much trouble absorbing what gets made available during this period.

[mosstastic]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@mosstastic

Oof. That will be tough to claw back

There’s a lot of emphasis on what the peak prices for any particular item were, even if such a peak was extremely short-lived.

PSA 9 1st edition holos definitely reached a peak in late October, with sales like the $20k Blastoise sale mentioned. But a few of the sales that occurred at that point were kind of extraordinary. $20k, at the time, was multiple times what the card had been selling for just a few weeks prior to that. A $20k price, if it had held, also would have meant that, if the ratio between PSA 9 and 10 were to look anything like it did before, that a PSA 10 Blastoise would be selling for $100k+ - something that didn’t materialize.

Ultimately, there were just a few sales for PSA 9 1st edition holos in late October that were outliers.

So yes, if your basis of comparison is a few sales from late October, then the market value of those cards has fallen.

And has been mentioned many times, there are still items in the market that are rising, primarily the rarer / more premium stuff.

My message wasn’t meant to indicate that I think we’re going to see a collapse across the board or anything of that nature.

Just that one particular sale, when viewed in isolation, was quite an outlier. For whoever purchased that they seemed to have had unfortunate timing.

I also do agree that those quality pieces will better absorb any volatility and continue growth. I have nothing to substantiate that claim obviously, and I feel somewhat foolish having this conversation since I have not been involved in TCG collecting for all that long — although I have collected other things, and my line of work deals with valuation so there is some overlap I suppose.

Whatever normalcy and stabilization eventually happens for prices, I’m welcoming it as someone trying to build out his sets.

[zorloth]

@karmaawhoree

@zorloth

Do you have a link? That’s bizarre that someone would spend that on a clearly resealed box.

Regardless, I’m pretty sure HA wouldn’t auction something like that off. Remember: Heritage specializes in collectibles. They’re not just some all-purpose auctioneer.

Good morning! I was able to dig up the link

It was actually an EX Power Keepers box, not EX Delta .

newengland.hibid.com/lot/87943-246865-22395/2007-pokemon-ex-power-keepers-pokemon-booster-box?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=friday_11/27/20

A tampered diamond and pearl box was also sold for 800 in the same auction

newengland.hibid.com/lot/87943-246865-22396/pokemon-diamond-and-pearl-booster-box?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=friday_11/27/20

Interesting. So they acknowledged that the boxes weren’t factory sealed and that the shrinkwrap isn’t original. Given that, it makes very little sense that they didn’t just open the boxes to check the contents. If the contents were authentic, then they could’ve pretty easily gotten at least 1.5-2x as much as they did. And if the contents were not original…then they’d be able to avoid selling counterfeit goods lol. Bizarre.

[pikachuisbestpokemon]

@traineramy

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

There’s a lot of emphasis on what the peak prices for any particular item were, even if such a peak was extremely short-lived.

PSA 9 1st edition holos definitely reached a peak in late October, with sales like the $20k Blastoise sale mentioned. But a few of the sales that occurred at that point were kind of extraordinary. $20k, at the time, was multiple times what the card had been selling for just a few weeks prior to that. A $20k price, if it had held, also would have meant that, if the ratio between PSA 9 and 10 were to look anything like it did before, that a PSA 10 Blastoise would be selling for $100k+ - something that didn’t materialize.

Ultimately, there were just a few sales for PSA 9 1st edition holos in late October that were outliers.

So yes, if your basis of comparison is a few sales from late October, then the market value of those cards has fallen.

And has been mentioned many times, there are still items in the market that are rising, primarily the rarer / more premium stuff.

My question wasn’t about the peak prices or the drop but rather if other cards were stabilizing and absorbing supply, giving a new price floor. The October peak prices brought out supply that I’ve never seen before (at one point there were 14 listed blastoise 9s, psa and bgs) when that was the usual supply for an entire year in the past.

The problem is a lot of this new supply hasn’t even hit the market. It is still pending at PSA…that’s why I tell other people to look at the “psa submission videos” that some grading services provide. It provides a sort of “sample” in terms of what people are actually submitting. In terms of WOTC era stuff, this is what I am seeing:

• Huge amounts of common and uncommon cards especially for popular pokemon - starters, pikachu etc.
• Lots of base unlimited cards, 1st edition jungle, 1st edition fossil etc.
• Occasionally 1st edition base cards
• Very few 1st edition base holos but I still see them going through.

In terms of prices retracing, I think that is quite obvious what is going to happen. Anything that is not legitimately rare is simply going to correct back to the point where equilibrium is established between raw card prices and PSA prices.

[jaredschallenge]

Anyone think this is NOT a 9…

I think it’s a 7
www.ebay.com/itm/1999-Pokemon-First-Edition-Shadowless-Venusaur-PSA-9-Mint-THICK-STAMP/143874371173?hash=item217f94ae65:g:oKMAAOSwbVVfzFXV

[admiral]

Never seen a cert number starting with 5

[shadowless]

@admiral

Never seen a cert number starting with 5

Those are kept in private circles, we all know that 5X is the new way to go, 4x and less is trash.

[zorloth]

@jaredschallenge

Anyone think this is NOT a 9…

I think it’s a 7
www.ebay.com/itm/1999-Pokemon-First-Edition-Shadowless-Venusaur-PSA-9-Mint-THICK-STAMP/143874371173?hash=item217f94ae65:g:oKMAAOSwbVVfzFXV

Could be an 8 if the front is insanely minty (which it might be, judging by the photos). But yeah, that’s too much back wear for a 9…

[neverforget50in07]

@jaredschallenge

Anyone think this is NOT a 9…

I think it’s a 7
www.ebay.com/itm/1999-Pokemon-First-Edition-Shadowless-Venusaur-PSA-9-Mint-THICK-STAMP/143874371173?hash=item217f94ae65:g:oKMAAOSwbVVfzFXV

I’ve seen worse 9s than this sadly. I think it looks like an 8 personally. If the holo has no scratches then that’s probably why it graded a 9.

[squirtle1000]

@neverforget50in07

@jaredschallenge

Anyone think this is NOT a 9…

I think it’s a 7
www.ebay.com/itm/1999-Pokemon-First-Edition-Shadowless-Venusaur-PSA-9-Mint-THICK-STAMP/143874371173?hash=item217f94ae65:g:oKMAAOSwbVVfzFXV

I’ve seen worse 9s than this sadly. I think it looks like an 8 personally. If the holo has no scratches then that’s probably why it graded a 9.

Also, it has very good centering. Like, PSA 10 level centering.

I’m thinking that most cards with backs like that don’t get PSA 9 because most of the time there are other issues. Like, a holo print line that doesn’t show up in photos, centering issues, etc. Perhaps that’s why when we see a back like this we automatically assume it shouldn’t get a 9, because there almost always would be something else wrong with the card, too.

Still, I could see this card getting an 8.5, and I don’t think anyone would complain if it got an 8. So this just shows how much overlap there is between grades.

[brendantheclayboy]

@jaredschallenge , I second the other fellas. It is an 8. 7 is too harsh. I presume it is pack fresh but awful front edge silvering and a typical PSA 8 back wear. I assume the holo is clean.

Also, it’s a thin stamp. Pedantic me, I know. But do a quick google search before you list, c’mon.

[squirtle1000]

@brendantheclayboy,

Actually it isn’t pack fresh. The seller says this in the listing:

“This card is from my original collection back in 1999. Only recently just taken out of storage and graded.”