The Giant English Market Thread

[anyon]

@jabby

Just brutal. This is why I put so little into modern sealed boxes at any given time. I love some of the cards that come out of these sets, but the pack value is so damn low when you have pull rates this abysmal:

@needszeebs

@thsigma

Are there any statistics majors that can help with deciphering how accurate these charts are?

im not a stats major, but i’ve taken several stats courses as part of my major. in my humble opinion, 8000 packs is nowhere near a large enough sample size to get an accurate reading on pull-rates. it’s a fun idea, but i wouldnt put too much stock into it. there’s so many variables for a potential ultra-rare hit, in the rare slot of a pack, varying levels of rarity between those ultra/secret rares, whether they were opened from booster boxes, etbs, blisters, single packs, print-run, are rarity levels different for different cards of the same rarity, etc.

basically, just buy singles lol

Also not a statistician by training per se, but I made a couple plots of the TCGPlayer data that include uncertainty on the pull rates:

The error bars are 70% (dark grey) + 90% (light grey) confidence intervals. Two points with overlapping error bars should be taken as statistically indistinguishable in value.

All available data is consistent with the “null hypothesis” of no particular card within a rarity tier being harder to pull than another. In fact, there is no significant difference between Alt Art V and Full Art V pull rates, once you account for there being more non-Alt, Full Arts in the set, i.e. it is equally hard to pull Machamp V 171/189 and 172/189.

For more details, see this post of mine: www.elitefourum.com/t/pull-rates-in-modern-sets/25220/65 .