Plasma Blast
This is the third and final set to include blue-bordered Team Plasma cards, and due to the complexity of the rarity tables arising from this I am glad to be done with them in this guide. Here is the raritty table - the types of sheets assumed are the same as for the previous two sets:
Again, I will go through the various rarities one by one. The analysis of the number of ultra rares per case some posts earlier points to 12 “regular” Pokémon-EX (twice the number of different cards in the set) and 8 full arts and secret rares (the number of full arts plus 2). Thus, for every third pack to contain a “hit”, there should be 52 holos in a case. Based on the raw data, there would by approximately 41.44 yellow border and 10.56 blue border (Team Plasma) holos per case; based on the number of holos in the set (9 yellow border and 2 blue border) the expected number would be approximately 42.54 and 9.46. So in the model I went with a medium estimat of 42 yellow border and 10 blue border holos. Here is the raw data (dashed lines indicating the same thing as always):
The quite low number of Salamence in the sample data is probably not significant.
As to the rares, both the raw data and the number of rares in the set point to a case containing 96 yellow border and 48 blue border rares. Here is the raw data:
Azelf and Accelgor are good bets for Ra13 and Rb25 cards, for Azelf I felt confident enough to include it in the rarity table, albeit with a question mark.
As to the uncommons, each pack contains 1 blue border and 2 yellow border uncommons. Since the set doesn’t have that many Team Plasma uncommons (or Team Plasma cards in general) that gives the Team Plasma uncommons significantly higher pull rates than the other uncommons.
For the commons, I reconstructed the sheet. It looks as follows - though as with all reconstructed sheets, it is not possible to say where the sequence begins and ends, thus the dagger marks:
† Squirtle, Teddiursa, Aron, Houndour, Ducklett, Surskit, Shelmet, Porygon, Munna, Throh, Kangaskhan, Solosis, Remoraid, Larvesta, Golett, Snorunt, Axew, Machop, Bagon, Squirtle, Teddiursa, Solosis, Drifloon, Houndour, Ducklett, Snorunt, Remoraid, Throh, Surskit, Karrablast, Golett, Druddigon, Munna, Axew, Shelmet, Kangaskhan, Snover, Machop, Bagon, Larvesta, Porygon, Teddiursa, Solosis, Houndour, Lapras, Tynamo, Remoraid, Sawk, Surskit, Aron, Drifloon, Kangaskhan, Throh, Munna, Shelmet, Snover, Ducklett, Porygon, Snorunt, Bagon, Squirtle, Teddiursa, Machop, Golett, Axew, Karrablast, Tynamo, Druddigon, Houndour, Solosis, Remoraid, Ducklett, Surskit, Larvesta, Munna, Aron, Snorunt, Snover, Lapras, Porygon, Sawk, Drifloon, Bagon, Axew, Druddigon, Tynamo, Shelmet, Golett, Machop, Throh, Kangaskhan, Teddiursa, Porygon, Squirtle, Aron, Houndour, Karrablast, Remoraid, Ducklett, Surskit, Lapras, Munna, Solosis, Snover, Drifloon, Tynamo, Sawk, Kangaskhan, Larvesta, Golett, Snorunt, Axew, Druddigon, Tynamo, Karrablast, Machop, Sawk, Snover, Lapras, Aron, Bagon †
The sheet contains a number of repeated sequences of 3 and one repeated sequence of 4, but I am relatively confident I got it right. The C4 cards are also those that appeared the fewest times overall in the packs I watched opened on YouTube.
For the “regular” Pokémon-EX, the raw data is as follows:
For the full arts and secret rares, my guess based on the observed pulls is that the the four secret rares are printed six times each on the sheet, yielding (4 * 6 / 100) * 8 / 6 = 0.32 secret rares per box, or approximately 1 in every third box. The raw data looks as follows:
For the Ace Specs, G Booster appeared the most often in the sample, though this is not statistically significant. The Ace Specs seem to be 1.5 per box on average, making the pull rates slightly lower than in the previous three sets (based on the set having 4 Ace Specs, you would actually expect 2 per box on average.
For the reverses, I am assuming the same distribution I did for Plasma Storm, namely 155 with yellow borders and 52 with blue borders, which fits the raw data well. For the yellow border reverses, my best guess is that all the reverse commons and all but two reverse uncommons appear twice on the sheet, the last two reverse uncommons, the reverse rares and reverse rare holos once:
There are only 14 blue border reverses in the set, so each should appear 8 or 9 times on the sheet. The best fit with the observed data would be if the reverse uncommons and reverse rare holos appear 9 times and the reverse rares 8 times:
