Dragon Vault
Before we get to the rather complex analysis of the rarities in the later Black & White Series sets, it’s time to look at the first mini-set ever released (not counting the POP Series): Dragon Vault. It contains 21 holographic cards (of which 1 secret rare, Kyurem). They were all printed on the same sheet. The simplest guess would be that each of the 20 regular cards appeared on the sheet six times and Kyurem once, but a quick look at some raw pull data observed on Youtube showed that some of the more desirable cards like Rayquaza and Haxorus seem to appear less often than the two Dratini and the two Axew, for example. For this reason, I reconstructed the sheet. Five cards appear seven times on the sheet, ten six times, five five times (Latias, Latios, Rayquaza, Haxorus and Druddigon being the “rares”) and Kyurem once. This leads to the following rarity table (the sequence length being one pack since there is only one sheet):
The sheet sequence is shown below. There are some repeated sequences of three cards, but I was able to unambiguously reconstruct the sheet:
† Fraxure (Grit), Dratini (Wrap), Bagon, Dragonair (Tail Whap), Fraxure (Scratch), Shelgon, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Exp. Share, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Dragonite, Fraxure (Grit), Druddigon, Super Rod, First Ticket, Dragonair (Healing Melody), Haxorus, Shelgon, Dratini (Wrap), Exp. Share, Salamence, Dragonair (Tail Whap), Latias, Bagon, Dragonite, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Axew (Lunge), Fraxure (Scratch), Druddigon, Latias, Super Rod, Rayquaza, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Fraxure (Grit), Salamence, Dratini (Wrap), First Ticket, Super Rod, Bagon, Dragonair (Healing Melody), Axew (Lunge), Exp. Share, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Rayquaza, Haxorus, Latios, Axew (Lunge), Druddigon, Dragonair (Tail Whap), Fraxure (Scratch), Shelgon, Salamence, Dratini (Wrap), Latias, Bagon, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Fraxure (Grit), Dragonite, Latias, First Ticket, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Shelgon, Axew (Lunge), Rayquaza, Latios, Dragonair (Healing Melody), Fraxure (Grit), Haxorus, Salamence, Dratini (Wrap), Super Rod, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Bagon, Dragonair (Tail Whap), Exp. Share, Latios, Rayquaza, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Axew (Lunge), Dragonair (Healing Melody), Latios, First Ticket, Fraxure (Scratch), Shelgon, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Dragonite, Dratini (Wrap), Druddigon, Haxorus, Fraxure (Grit), Exp. Share, Salamence, Dragonair (Tail Whap), Axew (Lunge), Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Latias, Dragonair (Healing Melody), Super Rod, Kyurem, First Ticket, Dragonite, Druddigon, Axew (Signs of Evolution), Dratini (Wrap), Fraxure (Scratch), Bagon, Shelgon, Dragonair (Healing Melody), Rayquaza, Salamence, Latios, Dratini (Hypnotic Gaze), Super Rod, Haxorus, Axew (Lunge), Fraxure (Scratch), Dragonair (Tail Whap), First Ticket, Exp. Share, Bagon, Dragonite, Axew (Signs of Evolution) †
(As a reminder, the dagger marks signify that it is not known where the sheet begins and ends.)