Plasma Freeze
Just like for the previous set, the rarity table for Plasma Freeze is pretty huge due to the fact it includes both yellow-bordered and blue-bordered cards:
Again, I will go through the categories of cards one by one. First, the holos: Like in the previous set, there are yellow-bordered holos (labeled Ha in the table) and blue-bordered (Team Plasma) holos (Hb). As mentioned earlier in my digression on the box ratios, there seem to be 8.30 per box, or 50 per case. My (quite large) sample from YouTube videos yielded 253 yellow-bordered and 320 blue-bordered holos, so I am assuming 22 yellow-bordered and 28 blue-bordered holos per case. The raw data is shown below (dashed lines indicating where the transition from Ha21 to Ha20 and Hb16 to Hb15 would occur):
While I wouldn’t be surprised if Sceptile (first holo in the set) and Ghetsis (the only holo trainer card) were the cards with Ha21 and Hb16 rarity, respectively, I don’t consider the data sufficient to assume that with reasonable certainty.
For the rares, the raw data shows that there are likely the same number of yellow-bordered and blue-bordered rares per box on average, even if the set contains 10 yellow-bordered and 12 blue-bordered holos. Here is the raw data:
Nidoqueen is the best bet as to the Ra13 card due to the size of the sample, but still don’t think it’s really certain. As to the Rb11 card (blue borders), it is probably either Seismitoad or Raticate.
The uncommons, like in Plasma Storm, were printed on two sheets, with each pack containing one Team Plasma (blue border) and two yellow-bordered uncommons. All the commons are yellow-bordered.
The number of “regular” Pokémon-EX per case seems to be 12 per case, or twice as many as are in the set (6) - as in the other sets released around this time. The raw data looks as follows, and unlike in Plasma Storm there is no indication of artificial rarity differences being introduced:
For the full arts and secret rares, they appear to have been printed on the same sheet as can be seen by the image of a miscut secret rare Garchomp I posted a while back. The number per case appears to be equal to the number of full arts plus 2, i.e. 10 - like in Boundaries Crossed and Plasma Blast. Despite the set containing 6 secret rares, the average number of secret rares per box is down to approximately one in every third box, making the secret rares the rarest cards so far (see conclusion at the bottom). With the sample containing 22 secret rares and 96 full arts, I am assuming each of the secret rares appears 3 times on the 10x10 sheet. Here is the raw data:
The Ace Specs are 1 per box on average, and Rock Guard appeared slightly more often in the sample than Life Dew - though this isn’t statistically significant.
For the yellow-bordered reverses, my guess based on a sub-sample (much smaller than the sample for the holos, rares, etc.) is that all but one of the reverse commons and reverse uncommons is printed twice on the sheet (in the model below I assume 1 reverse uncommon to appear only once on the sheet):
The blue-bordered (Team Plasma) reverses show much the same pattern as those from Plasma Storm: Assuming no artificial rarity differences, you would have 28 reverses appearing 4 times on the sheet, and the remaining 3 (likely reverse rare holos) 3 times (model 1). However, the observed data better fits model 2, which has all 8 reverse rare holos appearing 3 times, most of the other cards 4 times and 5 reverse uncommons 5 times.
Just as in Plasma Storm, in the rarity table I went with model 1, even though model 2 now appears to me increasingly more likely. I have tried to avoid modelling artificial rarity differences (in this case REb3, REb4 and REb5 cards on the sheet) unless the evidence is very conclusive. This is a point to think over for future edits of the model, though.
So, what can be said about this set to conclude? The most important conclusion ist that the 6 secret rares appear to be very rare indeed. With a pull rate of 1:720 packs, they are rarer than the rarest secret rares in Next Destinies and Boundaries Crossed (1:435,6 packs according to the model).