You can almost guarantee TPC is hovering a crane-suspended Wailord over that print button. Umbreon is gonna stonk in the short-term, but over the next 12 months the market will be absolutely flooded with supply of sv8a SARs.
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Didnât they do the same with 151? Yet the box prices are still insanely high.
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151 went for quite some time (I believe around a year-ish?) without a reprint, but when they did 3 waves of prints earlier this year the prices of boxes plummeted from a high of around ÂŁ165/box to about ÂŁ50/box. Prices are now at around ÂŁ70-75 a box. JP distributors have already dished out further allocations for another 151 reprint in the new year. The 151 reprints had the desired effect, though to your point, the immense popularity has sustained a much higher-than-average price for the set. Iâve no idea what their approach will be with sv8a, but I donât doubt print volumes will be huge, for all the reasons @koala has previously pointed out.
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Not to go too far off topic, but Iâm really glad to hear there will be a jpn 151 reprint next year. Still need to get that mew sar
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Did you get the one from Shiny Treasure? Super cute, currently affordable due to low product price and by an artist brand new to the TCG!
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With 1 SAR guaranteed per box, I suspect SAR prices are going to plummet over time similar to what happened with VSTAR Universe. The Charizards from that set have solid artwork and are still only $15-25. Prices of most of the SARs have already more than halved overnight.
The Umbreon master ball will probably end up being the big chase card. With about 1 master ball per 2 boxes and about 100 master ball cards, itâs a pull rate of 1:200 boxes compared to 1:32 for the SAR
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When there was a 5 box preorder purchase limit from announcement until the days before release AND a planned 151 reprint for December, not including the amount available at physical stores on day 1, there is no doubt TPC has absolute confidence in keeping up either now or 2 years into their print runs. About half the SARs have already dropped below 1000y before todayâs end. Itâs going to be great for people who love high class master sets
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VSTAR Universe was printed for ages. Donât FOMO.
When you think it has hit bottom, it finds a new one. Singles, that is.
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Wish I could do the maths myself⊠but calculating 1/200 boxes for the Umbreon masterball doesnât seem right statistically - that assumes a constantly even distribution with every second box getting a new masterball repeatedly across all 200 boxes!!??
I get that 200 boxes gives 100 masterballs but are all masterballs printed in equal volume. Does anyone know the stat please?!?
I think you might be right one day for Umbreon masterball
Wish I could do the maths myself⊠but calculating 1/200 boxes for the Umbreon masterball doesnât seem right statistically - that assumes a constantly even distribution with every second box getting a new masterball repeatedly across all 200 boxes!!??
1:200 would be the ratio, itâs not a guarantee that you would pull one in every 200 boxes of course. Iâm not 100% sure if master ball pull rates are evenly distributed but they should be
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Can only speculate on such things, but based on the 1000 box sample video each of the other rarity tiers have a consistent pullrate
- [26] SAR Pokémon 29/1000 - 49/1000 (consider variations due to Eeveelution god packs)
- [12] SR Supporter 11/1000 - 25/1000
- [6] SAR Supporter 6/1000 - 21/1000
- [5] UR Pokémon 6/1000 - 16/1000
1000 boxes is quite small, but there isnât any noticeable pattern with individual SR/SAR/UR. I highly doubt the Umbreon Master Ball mirror foil is treated any different from other PokĂ©mon Master Ball, itâs just the most sought after (especially when every other Eeveelution Master Ball is tanking to prices lower than their SAR counterpart)
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man we donât claim you
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So just anecdotally from scanning Mercari, prices are still dropping. Most SARs under $40 US, most MBs under $100. Umbreon MB seems like the only outlier. I still have not seen Friends posted. Havenât looked at the gold cards but imo the gold cards are ugly so theyâll prob drop too. eBay boxes ~$60
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I donât think there are any Supporters getting Master Ball this time, even Buddy-Buddy Poffin which is the most expensive Item doesnât get it. Cardrush has only listed PokĂ©mon cards for Master Ball
UR cards are sub-1000y unless itâs Pikachu (5400y)
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Iâll be going to Japan (Kyushu/Okinawa) next week, hopefully there are still some packs available at retail (e.g. at Konbinis, Pokemon Center, âŠ), however what Iâve read so far I am not really optimistic. I am not really a big modern collector anyway but would be nice to pick up the occasional pack here and there. I guess Iâll find out once I am there.
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Half-way there
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I saw umbreon SAR at book-off for „65,000.
I think the market is still trying to figure out a price