SalT17 Discussion

[smpratte]

The 10-9 ratio makes complete sense. Even with a minor retrace.

No one bats an eye when a Psa 10 is $1,000ish and the Psa 9 is $100ish. That’s the exact same ratio for T17: $10,000ish for Psa 10, $1,000ish for Psa 9.

[firebirder31]

@smpratte

The 10-9 ratio makes complete sense. Even with a minor retrace.

No one bats an eye when a Psa 10 is $1,000ish and the Psa 9 is $100ish. That’s the exact same ratio for T17: $10,000ish for Psa 10, $1,000ish for Psa 9.

Wonder what the 9-8 ratio is/is going to be for cards like this. Naturally with a 9 priced at 1000+ now, it’s going to price out a lot of people who will then have to look towards 8s

[chavycat]

@Cerulean

@pfm

I think if this was really the driving force you’d see a parallel trend with other difficult-to-grade PSA 9s. So far a proportional effect remains to be seen. Maybe it’s a sign of what’s to come though

Should be noted that a PSA 9 1st Ed. Neo Genesis Slowking just sold for over $300 at auction. That’s obviously not to the extent of the Typhlosion 17, but Slowking was regularly a $50 card up until recently.

That was a weird auction though. Only two people bid near that price. Next closest bid was $76. There’s another auction with 2 days left on it and I think you’ll see the end price come back down to around 220.

[Cerulean]

@chavycat

@Cerulean

Should be noted that a PSA 9 1st Ed. Neo Genesis Slowking just sold for over $300 at auction. That’s obviously not to the extent of the Typhlosion 17, but Slowking was regularly a $50 card up until recently.

That was a weird auction though. Only two people bid near that price. Next closest bid was $76. There’s another auction with 2 days left on it and I think you’ll see the end price come back down to around 220.

Even if that occurs, $220 is a pretty big jump for that card. Could buy it all day around $50 up until very recently.

[chavycat]

@firebirder31

@smpratte

The 10-9 ratio makes complete sense. Even with a minor retrace.

No one bats an eye when a Psa 10 is $1,000ish and the Psa 9 is $100ish. That’s the exact same ratio for T17: $10,000ish for Psa 10, $1,000ish for Psa 9.

Wonder what the 9-8 ratio is/is going to be for cards like this. Naturally with a 9 priced at 1000+ now, it’s going to price out a lot of people who will then have to look towards 8s

In cases like these, the 8 usually sells for about 40-60% if what the 9 goes for. So about half is average. That being said, and 8 typhlosion sold for just under 300 the other day. Does that mean the 8 has room to grow? I think so. That sale did come before the 1200 sale of the 9 today so maybe the next auction the 8 increases. Or maybe when the next 9 hits the market, it comes back down to 1000. We won’t really know until it happens

[Cerulean]

@merov1

It’s hard to know what to make of all this. Some examples of weird things:

• Is it rational for the price of T17 to go from $150 to $700+ in under a year? The PSA 9 has 130 pop, which is not particularly low, and a 5x increase in a year is usually more reflective of speculation rather than actual asset value increases (e.g. Bitcoin)
• The Slowking auction that’s been referenced hit $300 while there were two BIN options available at $200 (these two were snapped up before the end of the auction but they had been sitting there for a while before the auction went up, i.e. potential bidders might have seen that the auction was at $300 so snapped up the BINs)
• Umbreon and Espeon, that have relatively high pops and are not too difficult to grade, regularly went for ~$200 up until a month or two ago. Then a single Umbreon auction hit $341 and it seems to now sell for $350+. Does that make sense for a pop 200 card?

For full disclosure, I have all of these cards in relatively high grades (most acquired just before this most recent spike) so I’m not complaining haha. But just mindful of the causes of what we’re seeing - whether it’s some form of market manipulation, a rapid acceleration in people’s appreciation of the Neo sets or indicative of the illiquidity of Pokemon cards as an asset class, particularly those of relatively lower pop. And does this rapid price rise for some cards suggest they have the furthest to fall in a market correction (which is usually the case in other asset classes). Curious to hear thoughts!

P.S. firebirder31’s analysis on 9+10 pop percentage seems like a great explanation for some cards (Slowking and T17) but doesn’t explain the rises in price for Umbreon, Espeon, Lugia etc.

The Pokemon market is still incredibly young and is prone to wild corrections, so it does not surprise me all that much that the T17 jumped from $150 to $700+ inside of a year. Also, keep in mind that the PSA 10 price typically dictates the price point for grades below it. That is a five-figure card in a 10.

As far as the Slowking, even if that auction was a bit funky, this is a card that was selling for around $50 rather consistently until recently. It is incredibly difficult to get in a 10 (even moreso than Typhlosion, I believe), so it makes sense that the 9 is pretty expensive.

In the case of Umbreon, Espeon and Lugia, it isn’t always about gradability. Sometimes it’s just about popularity, just like Jolteon and Flareon in the Jungle Set. Those cards aren’t the most difficult to grade, but because they are Eeveelutions, people are willing to pay a premium for them. The same applies to Umbreon, Espeon and Lugia.

I’d also like to add that scarcity plays a prominent role in determining price. Even if the pop on these cards is relatively high, there just aren’t as many regularly available as there used to be. A year or so ago, you could search for almost any PSA 9 1st Edition WOTC holo outside of Base Set and find a bunch of copies available. Now you’re lucky to find more than two at any one time.

[Taigataipan]

@scarecrowman88
1st ed. Feraligatr 5/111 is really hard to locate nowadays, surely some copies have changed owners privately but Pokemonprice has almost no data for PSA 10’s. The following article confirms your thoughts.
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Riptide_(TCG)

[jawsh98]

@firebirder31

@merov1 , actually Lugia is quite low as well, almost the same as Slowking. Add to that god tier popularity on amazing artwork and you can see why its going up. Should be noted that Lugia numbers are likely also affected by popularity as more lower grade examples are submitted since they have inherit value just being Lugia. Same could be said for Espeon and Umbreon but those cards are clearly being carried by popularity rather than “difficulty to grade”. Popularity snatches those cards from the market as people just love them. Yanma and Smearagle aren’t quite as loved and likely only targeted by set collectors.

9+10% POP
T17: 30.36%
Slowking: 34.10%
Lugia: 34.61%
Metal Energy: 38.57%

Yanma: 50.72%
Umbreon: 78.32%
Espeon: 78.75%

Quick snapshot of the difference of some of these cards. Shouldn’t say all this cause I still need a Lugia! haha

This was helpful, thank you!

[shim0da]

Someone just listed a T17 for USD4,000

Would love to know when this one will sell and at what price when it happens…

[chavycat]

@shim0da

Someone just listed a T17 for USD4,000

Would love to know when this one will sell and at what price when it happens…

People are crazy. The general rule I’ve seen the market follow is that the 10 sells for 5-8x what the 9 sells for. The higher end of that is 10x. The lower end of that is 3x. In this case, unless there was a sale for 12k, I don’t think the 9 should go for 4k IMO

[shim0da]

I agree… I do think that it was undervalued previously but the 4k price is pretty insane considering the other options available within that range.

If it gets absorbed by the market at this price, I do not think I can ever complete my goal of getting my fav version of the Gen 2 starters in PSA 9…sadness haha

[chavycat]

@shim0da

I agree… I do think that it was undervalued previously but the 4k price is pretty insane considering the other options available within that range.

If it gets absorbed by the market at this price, I do not think I can ever complete my goal of getting my fav version of the Gen 2 starters in PSA 9…sadness haha

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

[jcincy101]

@chavycat

@shim0da

I agree… I do think that it was undervalued previously but the 4k price is pretty insane considering the other options available within that range.

If it gets absorbed by the market at this price, I do not think I can ever complete my goal of getting my fav version of the Gen 2 starters in PSA 9…sadness haha

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

Just put a WTB thread on here for 2k, someone will jump at that price to sell I guarantee it. Put your money where your mouth is!

[Dizzle]

@jcincy101

@chavycat

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

Just put a WTB thread on here for 2k, someone will jump at that price to sell I guarantee it. Put your money where your mouth is!

those numbers are tempting as hell for sure haha

[chris350dx]

@jcincy101

@chavycat

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

Just put a WTB thread on here for 2k, someone will jump at that price to sell I guarantee it. Put your money where your mouth is!

Haha crazy!!

[crystalcollector149]

@chavycat

@shim0da

I agree… I do think that it was undervalued previously but the 4k price is pretty insane considering the other options available within that range.

If it gets absorbed by the market at this price, I do not think I can ever complete my goal of getting my fav version of the Gen 2 starters in PSA 9…sadness haha

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

2k lol? Hope this is a joke or that you own most of the pop haha

[7l7l]

@crystalcollector149

@chavycat

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

2k lol? Hope this is a joke or that you own most of the pop haha

Are you saying you don’t think there are buyers for the card at $2k?

[chavycat]

@crystalcollector149

@chavycat

I have my ebay notifications tell me when any of them show up now. If there’s one for even 2k, I’m gonna grab it

2k lol? Hope this is a joke or that you own most of the pop haha

No. The only other one I see has a listing for 4k. I don’t believe it’s worth that much. That’s why I have my notifications fixed for any typhlosion

[charizandrew]

I’m sure seller’s would happily let the card go for $2k

[Cerulean]

One just got listed for 2.5k.