I was just looking over the shill bidding thread and I was going to add this comment, as they are closely related, but I decided to make it its own thread to put a small spotlight on this issue.
So, I’ll preface this by saying that I have never participated in an instagram raffle but I think most people would agree that quite a few of them seem a little fishy. After diving deep into many raffle posts, I started making connections between, what evidence would suggest, burner accounts and fake raffle participants who take up spots in a raffle to make raffles seem full and then who consistently win raffles.
These raffle participants have many of the following characteristics:
little to no posts/activity- the few posts they do have are spread out over a year or two- after having won, their accounts are deleted within the span of a few months
private accounts
appear to have no connection to the tcg. (never heard of them in the Pokemon community)
seem to consistently win raffles spread out between a group of related sellers. These sellers are legit members of the community.
they never post anything about their winnings.
The participants all have the exact same (limited) common friends → this seems to point a finger at which people have scammy raffles as it could suggest that multiple sellers (who all seem to be closely tied) are using the same burner accounts. Some times I have observed that certain sellers appear to trade spots in their raffle with another seller with the deal that they would win eachother’s raffles. The sellers then would just keep their profit and keep the prize.
I don’t know how many efour members actually participate in raffles and I realize that a lot of this is observation and speculation with no super solid evidence. Since I don’t participate in raffles, part of me just doesn’t want to put in the man hours it would require to really gather all the info and investigative work. And I might take some heat from people for this one but I just wanted to throw it out there because it is so clear that at least some people are using these burner accounts as a way to fill spots which are then predetermined to win their raffle. I know that there was a fake random.org program generator that some people had been using in years past. Can anyone shed any more light and exposure on the invalidity of some of these raffles? Tactics used or more info that would help pick out a fake raffle.
I honestly don’t think the majority of raffles are scams.
There a lot more regular people that are not hardcore collectors that participate I think. One of the reasons why the Pokemon “market” is doing so well.
Just don’t get involved, IG raffles are ultimately just a quick money scheme or publicity stunt to obtain followers.
Unless their very trusted in the community, will live stream a random number generator for the winner, even then there’s always a way.
^ PokemonPup above me here said it best: just dont partake in any. Not only is the practice frowned upon, but if im not mistaken its also illegal as a practice (please correct me of wrong). We could speculate all sorts of different reasons and do lots of detective work to sniff out the root causes, but at the end of the day, not participating is the best one can do.
Big brain move: if you see something you want to win in a raffle, just buy it instead.
yes, most likely they take a overhyped price for a card. they divide it by lets say 100 spots, and you have to pay the price of each spot to enter, you can also buy as many as you like. So seller ends up getting a higher market price for his card, and you most likely nothing.
Well therein lies the answer. Why would someone offer a raffle if not to profit or at worst, scam?
Now I would join a raffle if the money went straight into a reputable charity, and I don’t mean to the host who promises it to a charity.
It is blatantly obvious at times. There have been raffles that I’ve seen where if I had to guess, out of 10 spots, only 1 was an actual real person who had paid money.
But hey, if you can get $100 for a single buy in…that’s all you need.
I also suspect, that items are raffled off which are not actually in possession of the person doing the raffle. For example, I can almost guarantee there are some accounts that continue to raffle off the same booster box for year(s) straight. They use the capital to probably buy more boosters but it must be a slow process.
There are only a couple of IG rafflers who appear to be very reputable and legit, but regardless, it’s essentially just a roundabout way for them to sell cards/product at higher than market value. If I remember correctly, Scott once said that they essentially just profit from loss - and I wholeheartedly agree. There are people that enjoy them and can afford them, but it’s basically gambling. They do generate buzz but I personally would never enter a raffle. Each to their own of course.
The ultimate reality is that the total lack of accountability makes them impossible to reliably engage in.
In a perfect world: Sure, I can see some merit. Some. A tiny, tiny bit.
But you don’t know if there are fake accounts being used as “buyers.” And even if only 1% of the pool is fake accounts, that’s still an edge over time for the dealer. The incentive to cheat as a seller is insane. There is constant pressure to fill the raffles, no accountability system or built-in structure that can identify fake participants or fake rolls, and when you fake a buyback, the goods you are keeping are liquid in the regular market. And we haven’t even mentioned that this is ultimately an illegal gambling scheme being operated under the radar in the first place.
Because of this, whatever merit it may have hypothetically had disappears. There is no safe way to participate in raffles. There is no legitimate way to host raffles.
