So, this post is not intended to stir up negative emotions but I thought it would make an interesting discussion. I’m also curious to get people’s thoughts on this.
Caveat, I’m relatively new to this hobby and to PSA. In the past I collected different TCG cards (MtG) and primarily Beckett cards. But I’ve had enough graded collectibles pass through my hands over the years to know that grading, due to the human element, is never perfectly consistent on a case by case basis. But grades are usually consistent on average. Meaning the average 10 is “better” than the average 9, has fewer flaws, etc.
I started buying graded pokemon PSA cards in January. I have probably bought between 400 and 500 graded cards. I’ve been buying in a very consistent condition. 9s and 10s exclusively for my “graded set” and generally 8s and 9s, with a few 7s, that I crack open for my binder sets. I’ve probably cracked at least 200 cards out of their cases. So I’ve been really “up close and personal” with the cards and have gotten to examine them pretty carefully.
Anyways, it didn’t take long until I started to notice a very strong pattern emerging. Cards with 4** serial numbers were, on average, graded to a different standard than cards with 2** and lower serial numbers. I have seen MANY PSA 9s with 4*** serial numbers that are at least equal to, if not better than, PSA 10 cards with older serial numbers. There are even a few PSA 8s that I’ve seen with the new serial number that seem like they could have gotten a PSA 10 by the old standards on a lucky day. As soon as I saw the pattern I shifted my buying pattern towards 4*** cards which further reinforced what I saw.
I’m not saying this applies to every card on a case-by-case basis. I have still seen plenty of mis-graded 4*** cards. But on average there is a pattern.
I don’t really know what to make of this and what it means for collecting, besides the fact that I would think 4*** serial number cards become more desirable overall than cards with lower serial numbers. Especially at grades lower than 10. I mean a 10 with any serial number if it’s a true 10 can only be so “perfect”. But any lower grade card has inherent flaws, and in the same grade, I would rather have a card with less flaws, all else equal.
The implications for 10s are interesting too though, particularly on lower pop cards, “chase” cards, etc. Let’s say you have a 4*** PSA 9. It’s only flaw is a light chip on the corner, maybe a spot of whitening on an edge. It would have been an easy 10 by the old standards. You want to upgrade the card to a 10. You wait patiently until one of the low pop 10s comes up for sale. It’s not a bad 10. It deserved a 10 by the old standard. But by the new standard your card is basically the same or possibly better. What do you do?
I’ve had this come up several times and when it’s been a high value card I’ve generally stuck with my 4** PSA 9. But it creates some internal conflicts. Would love to hear what others think.
