Do PSA pop reports matter anymore? With the influx of new interest in Pokémon TCG, there’s a ton of new players, collectors, investors, etc. With that being said, do PSA pop reports matter that much anymore? For example, you have some Japanese S&M sets that have sought after trainer cards that have a significant lower pop compared to the most popular. For example, Gardenia 070 from Ultra Sun has a lower pop of 476 graded PSA 10 and from what I remember seeing, shops were looking to pay $780 per raw. Then you have Dream League with Rosa 067 and Lillie’s Full Force 068 with Rosa having 4,000+ graded PSA 10 and Lilli having 3,400+ graded PSA 10 and shops are paying considerably more. It’s also fair to note Gardenia’s pop for PSA 10 is going to get much higher seeing how scarce booster boxes are.
Has collecting/investing gone past the point where pop reports matter anymore and where popularity is king?
I would say pop reports still matter insofar as to give you an idea of how often a card in a particular grade will pop up. A card with 1,000 PSA 10 copies will generally pop up for sale more often than a card with only 50 copies. Pop reports are also fun to look at if you’re curious about which cards are being sent in for grading and how easy said cards are to grade.
Beyond that, I’d say not as much anymore as organic popularity and absolute rarity seem to have taken center stage. I used to be more of a chaser of low pop cards but the premium hardly seems worth it anymore unless I really love the card or find it only pops up for sale a couple times a year.
I suppose popularity (i.e., demand) has always been king.
In short, rarity is a catalyst; it can accelerate price increases by acting on the underlying demand. If there isn’t much demand to work with, the card needs to be really rare; if the card is Lillie in great demand, little to no rarity can set off rapid price increases.
Like any tool, when used properly they can be very helpful. But also like a tool they can be dangerous when used incorrectly. Always wear safety gear when interpreting pop reports
Indeed, using pop reports as a proxy for grading difficulty. However, does anyone have an estimate on how inflated the number of 9s for wotc? Isn’t it crack and resubmit all the time?
Agreeing with seaside pokemon. Pop reports can still be useful, but you need to understand what they actually mean. For example, demand is always a stronger indication of value than supply. And also, population does not necessarily equal supply. It just indicates the current graded supply. With some older/rarer cards, it’s unlikely for that pop to change, but with a newer modern card that is going through a sudden price spike, it’s safe to assume that pop will go up as more people submit in response. Also a low pop could just mean a card is so low in value, no one cares enough to grade. Context is important, but I do still believe pop can be a good additional data point when taken in context along with everything else.
Pop reports can give a little insight into things like grading difficulty for a card that has a large supply of multiple grades. For example, it gives clear indication about the grading difficulty of many WOTC holos where you may have literally 1000s graded and yet only a small amount get PSA 10.
In the end though, I think supply/demand and the popularity can drive all grades and the pops become somewhat meaningless. Something like a 1st Ed Base Charizard sells well in any grade/condition and so the pop report is basically meaningless for a card like this as the demand will always absorb the supply pretty well.
It’s safe to say anything under a PSA 10 in terms of the count is going to be inaccurate due to cracking and re-submission of cards when it may make sense to do so either with PSA or another grading company, so this further adds to how the pop report doesn’t matter that much outside of PSA 10s.
I think it still matters, but gone are the days that a low pop card means automatic money. The pop report can tell you what kind of card it is. Is it a high print promo like Charizard grand prix, a limited promo like the poncho pikas, or a wotc set card or old back Japanese promo? I think you need to interpret the pop report in relation to the card’s particular category. For example, comparing the the precious collector pop to MBS or the ponchos to draw conclusions. For this kind of promo, maybe 1000 is considered low pop.
The underlying hypothesis in the original post is: pop reports don’t matter anymore because popularity has become more important. I think that the hypothesis is the wrong angle to look at it to begin with.
The pop report doesn’t fight popularity. It’s just a record of how many graded cards (most reliably psa 10s) exist. It’s just a piece of information that tells you something about the supply you can expect. And that information will always be useful regardless of how popular a card is.
Basically repeating what’s already been said but a population report is just a number, it’s the qualitative information that really dictates prices most of the time.
For example, it gives clear indication about the grading difficulty of many WOTC holos where you may have literally 1000s graded and yet only a small amount get PSA 10.
Well said, this exactly it. That’s when a low pop matters.
It can be useful in the sense that, if you’re trying to buy a PSA 10/9/8 whatever of a certain card, it can give you an idea of how available copies are. Also if you’re looking for a specific card that hasn’t been graded before, you can know if you’re a pop 1
Pop is only part of the equation (supply). Demand is much more important. Without demand, cards are bulk/trash. People emphasize way too much on pop and create premiums on the most absurd things. While pop is over hyped, “liquidity” is often under appreciated.
On the other hand, I believe that many people (especially newcomers who experience such a boom for the first time) are overestimating the current demand for modern cards. Like, a lot.
When we have cards that have a PSA10 pop of 1000, 3000, even 9000+ copies, it’s just not realistic that it will not be enough to saturate demand. The fact alone that certain cards are already retracing by a lot, indicates that demand can’t keep up with the supply, and that’s completely different from 2020.
I’ve witnessed and participated in 2 booms: The 2020 Pokemon mania, and the 2021 NFT mania. The current boom feels much more like the NFT mania, where mass-produced products are flooding the market and everything is completely hype-driven. Think of Tulip mania. There was of course also hype in 2020, but there’s a difference when you have 1-2 chances to buy a Japanese PSA 10 Gold Star Mew in 2 years of mania, as opposed to having a chance to buy a Full Force Lillie literally every day.
I don’t expect believers of the permanent success of modern cards to believe me, because hopium is one hell of a drug. But I have to believe in the fundamentals of any other successful collectibles hobby. And the fundamentals tell me that what we see right now won’t last.
