PSA Pop Reports. Do They Matter Anymore?

I just want to take this a bit further. In one sense, the actual population number doesn’t matter. THOUSANDS of PSA 10 copies seems like a ton, but population is nearly always proportional to demand.

BUT humans are biased against change. We don’t like it and often underpredict that change will happen. If and when a shift in demand happens, say during a recession, the cards with massive numbers of copies graded have the most exposure and will be hit the hardest. It’s easy to get caught up in the current moment and project today’s demand for the rest of time, but it’s easy to get burned if you are thinking that way

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The entirety of Pokemon is actually too new to really say much about anything.

This is a purely academic discussion, but when those that grew up with the originals start to die or are at such an age to move on, then we can start to determine what place they hold - for the first cards only.

Right now we haven’t even reached 30. In 50 years time, if Pokemon is still around, that’s another 250 sets - assuming 1 special set a year and the same release pace.

Lots of money and opportunities to be made during that timeframe of course.

Higher pop = higher downside risk

Certain higher pop cards may see more explosive growth due to their popularity, but their downside risk is higher due to greater supply available.

Lower pop cards on the other hand may not see steep growth, but i believe their downside risk is lower and they tend to hold their price better. Does not make low pop cards automatically expensive.

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