i think thats why i find pokemon so interesting. part of me wonders if the same items tend to change the same hands fairly often. i wonder how many times Dave and Adams has bought the same booster box and resold it over the past couple years? there’s almost a bizarre collusion among the investors, collectors and resellers. like we’re all in on it together but not really aware of it. things are good until they aren’t. not sure what the buy pool is like for a 25k base set box, but thats the road we’re on. curious to see what its like at that time. it might be a blurr on the way to higher prices, who knows.
i think the biggest x factor will always be the nostalgia. there seems to be a lot more in hobby that would still enjoy owning the item even it fell in value below what they paid. you dont see that often in other collectibles, and certainly not traditional financial markets unless it was part of an inheritance or private equity in family company, etc. even then its not the norm.
I have bought certain cards at the WORST possible time. Not a great idea to try and complete my PSA 10 Crystal/Shining set in late 2017, basically which coincided at their peak of social media hype. As a 9-card set, the crystals dropped several thousand dollars from 2017-2019.
Well guess what? Now the set is higher than I paid/traded for. Yes, there was a dip. But there were no new Skyridge or Aquapolis booster boxes being produced. Sure, cards could go down temporarily if they’re inflated or in a bubble, but unless everyone magically loses interest in Pokemon, the prices will climb back up and then exceed.
If we learn from your experience shouldn’t we sit on the sidelines abit when card prices are going up 10% everyday right now and Brock is selling for 1.5k usd
For buying cards today I’m going on a case by case basis.
If you look at crystal Charizard which went from 4-4.5k to 2-2.5k, the PSA 10 pop almost doubled in past 2.5 years 85 → 166. But the curve has flattened with less being graded and obviously no new ones being graded in near future. So I don’t expect as drastic a dip should this card suddenly skyrocket.
With something like PSA 10 1st Ed. Base Chansey, which I’d like to eventually purchase… if that shoots up this month, as offers have already increased, there’s not much incentive for sellers to ever reduce the price when no new ones may ever be graded
cards will sell, regardless what their prices are. not everyone is a permanent collector who holds onto a card for the next 20-50 years. if the price is right, people will sell. if the 1st ed chansey is at 20k, i’m sure there will be a few that pop up. not all, a few.
Well, i made a buy thread here on the forum with a price, so that is reasonable place to go for a guess… I did not exceed that offer and am planning to pull my buy thread offers next week as I don’t want to have those potential “accounts payable” just sitting out there. To be clear it’s nothing personal… someone can ask whatever price they want, particularly if they really don’t want to sell
So here’s an interesting idea. All this talk about cards and prices sounds similar to timing the market. Coincidentally, there was an Alpha investment video in my suggestion box. It was on pokemon booster boxes and Rudy said that he prefers to buy during the calm periods. I could be wrong, I often am, but wouldn’t dollar cost averaging work for pokemon as well as stocks? Instead of trying to time the market, buy before it goes up or buy when the prices come down just buy. Look at @tcagaming, @smpratte, @garyis2000 and others who have substantial collections/positions. They simply did it consistently throughout time. I’m reading the book outliers on exceptional people. There is the 10,000 hours rule when it comes to being world class. Without a doubt I can say the 3 above are world class when it comes to collecting. They have probably well over 10,000 hours invested in this hobby. is it simply luck where they are? Can dollar cost averaging work when it comes to pokemon?
With due respect to those tagged, nearly anyone who spent money on WOTC Pokémon cards in the past 15 years would see their portfolio increase even if it’s a $10 Holo card that went to $30 psa 9. The hobby itself has been lucky.
there is no perfect time to buy a card. well, there is, and that is always in the distant past, not in the present. however, as long as the hobby continues to grow, you can bet the money spent on the cards with their rapidly increasing prices today will be well spent in 5-10 years.
since he is the only person on eBay with this card listed, he can pretty much ask for what he wants. this guy also has a near full set of base 1st edition in PSA 10, minus the Charizard.
don’t give up on it, just be patient. this happens to many people in the hobby.
Exactly. This is what I was aiming at. People who say otherwise are like the people who thought the price of certain stocks were too high at a certain ptso they didn’t buy in. Only for them to go even higher. Number#1 best time to invest was yesterday and the second best time to invest/collect is today.
You have a great point. When you want a card buy it. Stop waiting for price drops or deals and low ball offers that’s how you miss out on cards And guess what happens while people wait on a price drop? They get the opposite a price increase or lack of availability. It’s amazing how many buy threads here are of cards already on eBay with the offer much lower than listing price. Past sales data doesn’t exactly matter. What matters is what is currently listed for sale on the market If a card is high priced I might check 2 or 3 sites eBay being one of them and a general Google search to check some other options. I know sometimes you just get lucky but there is plenty of times where waiting screws you
And guess what happens while people wait on a price drop? They get the opposite a price increase or lack of availability. It’s amazing how many buy threads here are of cards already on eBay with the offer much lower than listing price. Past sales data doesn’t exactly matter. What matters is what is currently listed for sale on the market