Haha I’d like to meet your dad. I also collect motorcycles!
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xileets
206
Yes! I think this would be a great use of it. I think it’s also a great value that grading would add to collectibles, for them to include a non-falsifiable means to track and authenticate an item, whether yours or others’. Additionally, scammers cannot add new records to the ledger - as it is stored in a large, trusted network of computers that all must agree on the legitimacy of the record - in an attempt to create fake slabs (which you said, just clarifying for anyone reading.) I do like this idea quite a bit.
Value Added. 
I’d agree. NFT (which is just a specific implementation of blockchaining records) only solves the problem of verifying tracking and accounting. On the matter of condition, if the ledger contained enough information, we’d know WHO it was that compromised the card. 
I do think this is a good value added by the feature.
It was interesting to read this entire thread chain. It seems the vast majority of comments are either bullish on modern or bullish on vintage and few were bullish on both. I actually think the core importance will be the same for both and that’s the interest in the hobby. If 20 years from now pokemon is still big and a lot of people are still collecting (at least as many as now if not more) then I could see both doing well. Personally I think at this point it looks promising it will still be around then but no one ever knows. It is the largest franchise of all time though, larger than star wars even so that’s got to count for something with longevity.
People will want to collect interesting cards. Vintage cards will do well for their rarity and I think future generations will look at them almost as antiques and find interest in them for their mystique and for the fact they came from an older time. You see that in other collectible hobbies where people prize and value things that came long before them.
The modern alternate art cards now I think will be remembered as the cards they chased when they were younger and didn’t get to have them. I agree with an earlier comment that it’s important to pick the cards themselves well when it comes to Modern or Vintage. Moonbreon may hold it’s value well for the longterm due to the popularity of Umbreon and the popularity of its artwork. Even younger generations as they get into the hobby later might hear about the stories of old when Moonbreon was this sensation and it may strike interest for them even though they didn’t live it. I mean unnumbered Japanese promo cards were basically that way for me. I didn’t know about them until I was an adult but I became really interested in them and loved the additional aura of them being less known and understood and from a far away place and time that I wish I could have seen and experienced but am now through these little pieces of cardboard. Bottom line for both vintage and modern I don’t think you had to grow up as a kid during that time period to want those cards.
I think massive spikes in modern cards are likely to fail. I wouldn’t be surprised if moonbreon takes a big hit along with the waifu’s. But that doesn’t mean modern isn’t strong. That means a few hyped cards got out of control and corrected. Other modern cards that are more in line I think will do well for the longterm provided they are one of the rarer chase cards of the set.
Like I personally have been buying the alternate art V cards from Eevee heroes. It’s a popular set of popular Pokémon with fantastic artwork. I think it will age well. I don’t expect 5x gains in 5 years but I think those cards will steadily increase. Could there be spikes up or down in between? Sure. But to me that’s noise compared to the longterm look where I see them doing well. They are beautiful cards in a fun set built around Pokémon that have been popular for over 20 years. Seems like a good recipe to me.
6 Likes
Really interesting read and I agree overall.
However I do think that at the moment there is a tonne of price manipulation, and certain modern cards that are “popular” now wont hold up in the long run as its not true passion for the card that is driving their price (in my opinion).
For example - The waifus boom was completely driven by speculation on price. No one gave them much attention (they existed since S&M) until the “money printer went burr” and suddenly everyone had to have these cards.
The Chinese market is different however, many collectors I know do collect Japanese specifically wifus - but again this just drives speculation in the whole market.
I personally think this is what happened with the moonbreon spike also. Its not that great of an artwork in my humble opinion (the Rayquaza alt is just so much nicer), and most people bought it (and later after release of Evolving Skies, cracked all those packs) because they were speculating.
Most people who pulled it graded it and sold it.
Money influences peoples interest in this hobby far more than I think we all admit.
If price wasn’t a consideration, would moonbreon be the chase?
Most kids nowadays who entered the hobby naturally do not care about the Moonbreons…but their parents do (speaking from personal experience with 2 young boys, who also have cousins who collect).
They like the cards they like - Moonbreon was never really been in their interests.
So overtime, I have no idea how these modern chases will perform.
The PSA 10 pop will also be outrageous, so there wont exactly be a supply based price appreciation.
3 Likes
I should have used a different example than moonbreon. I don’t have that card or ever plan on getting it. I agree it’s overrated. Frankly I like Eevee Heroes Umbreon V WAY better and think it’s a better piece of art.
The point I was trying to make is the hype cards might do well but I wouldn’t bet on it which is why I’m staying away from those big ones.
But I do think print numbers are relative to demand. I mean take the Japanese Stamp Box promo. There are like 10k graded copies. It’s nuts. But everyone wants the card so prices are high. I love vintage WOTC but only English speakers are going to be interested in that. Some of the modern Japanese appeal to basically all languages so I think at least the Japanese side of modern could steadily increase over time for the chase cards (not the hype cards but the chase cards).
Same i prefer a lot of stuff over Moonbreon like Umbreon V/Vmax CSRs/TG for Umbreon cards.
1 Like
bk2021
211
There are so many unquantifiable statements here.
How would you know what most people are doing or did?
You have 2 kids and suddenly, they are most kids.
bk2021
212
The stamped promos might have a higher print run than English and JP set cards yet their price is much higher. At least a 100k right? Rainbow rares of the overprinted SWSH era may not even have that amount, much less SM era. JP set SRs are printed even less.
bill
213
Lets talk about hyped cards, especially Moonbreon.
- Everybody wants it
- Every pokestonker recommend to the others to get as many as they can.
- everyone says they will be holding the card long term
- One negative comment on the pokestonk forum and you get downvoted into oblivion
This is reminds me too much of the time when bitcoin was worth 60k
6 Likes
SDWS
214
Yes - I see where you say
“(eg, an NFT of a PSA card to PROVE you own the real thing, would be a great avenue).”
And I really encourage you to check out the twitter profile I linked in my first message. That’s exactly what they’re currently doing and I’m curious for your take on it.
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bill
215
True, an Nft should be a digital passport. I believe Starbucks is doing this? You get an nft of a company and get some benefits and rewards over time and if you dont want it anymore you sell it to somebody else. Get a Bayc and you get acces to some exclusive parties with only men haha. I dont know yet if they could do something similar with pokemoncards but if there is money to be made it is going to happen.
Hate to remind you… Evolving Skies is out-of-print.
bk2021
218
Aren’t you just proving his point?
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Nope. It’s 2 years since release date, it’s no longer hype but real demand. Hype is short term like few months.
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Ahhhhh my daily dose of pokebuffet and moonbreon!
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Despite the noise, and short term volatility, I see Pokémon developing into a mature art market with a broad spectrum of ages and income participating. I haven’t see many 85 year old Pokémon collectors, but that’s what I’m going to be, so I’m sure they’ll be others.
5 Likes
kamon
222
I’ll be 85 on this site and still won’t have my 100 day streak
11 Likes
quibble
223
Considering what the franchise has been through over the last two decades, I can see something roughly similar happening over the next couple.
With the highs we’re seeing with modern TCG & game sales now, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a slight decline within the next five years (post 30th anniversary); which might push the franchise to try refreshing things for a new generation, ala BW, due to the shock, after years of constant growth.
From there, I can see a lot of the stonkers hitting the “I’m out” button, and there being a sell-off of a fair amount of modern. I’d imagine if this happens, modern will stagnate for a while, whilst vintage remains pretty steady.
Beyond anything like that actually happening, the trend seems to indicate that interest & growth in the franchise will slowly recover and start to build again, probably in time for a sudden surge again in the build-up to the 40th anniversary.
Vintage will probably toddle along, doing its thing, with 90% of stuff sitting fairly stable, while more noteworthy cards/subsets continue to quietly rise beyond the reach of most collectors - eventually I can see some of these desirables crashing hard in the very long term, as interest wains from lack of exposure to new blood in the hobby (E-Series crystals, Gold Stars).
I also predict many smpratte videos through all of this.
Pokemon King (who’s also here) is in that age range.
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