Over the past while, I’ve moved into the camp of both modern & vintage are great and are both great in the longer term depending on various factors. To me it mainly depends exactly on what you are collecting. Each era has good and bad cards or sets, and I think this simply has to be accepted and recognized at this point.
For example, I don’t really see something like Base Set 2 or Unlimited Jungle as a ‘great’ WOTC investment or collectible. It’s definitely affordable and allows someone to collect vintage cards more easily, but it’s doesn’t carry the same level of prestige as 1st Ed Base Set or 1st Ed Jungle will. It is what it is, and the performance of each reflects this.
With modern, you have some similar parallels. S&V so far has had some great cards or sets, others not so great. Same with SWSH and other older sets. Pre-2020 to me is a whole other discussion, so I won’t get into that as much. I feel like it’s harder to compare those sets to post-Covid sets, but a lot of the same principles apply regardless.
Over time, vintage has produced incredible returns as well. It’s moved up dramatically, and has fallen dramatically at times also. But I think you have to look at the longer cycles (i.e. 5-10 years+) and then compare that overall growth to modern to see the real rate of return. I feel it’s unlikely, due to sheer numbers, that modern sets will ever match the total returns of the most desirable vintage cards/sets. I just don’t think it’s possible, but that does not mean modern is worse or even bad from an investment perspective, but it’s just not a 1:1 comparison to me. They are simply different in many ways depending on how you measure and weigh each one against another.
So overall, I think both eras can be great, but it all depends on what you’re collecting. The market will always be optimized over time. I think it’s worth owning both, but that you should collect sincerely and with what interests you the most. We never know the exact future of any of this, and I think it’s important to actually enjoy what you own in the process of collecting and not just endlessly speculate with any of it.
I have a feeling that deep down you know what works and making this post is more of trying to justify your thoughts and hoping through validation that enforces your mindset.
I am going to give you that validation; I am sure that the vintage cards CAN only go up in time if the hobby doesnt die and more people join the hobby as supply in the market continues to diminish.
However, I dont think it is also a necessary motion to make it a “I can only go A or B” scenario. Why not go for both? I used to only collect vintage for a long time up until 2021, as convincing myself that Modern is “overhyped”, “temporary” and even trying to gaslight myself into downplaying certain cards/sets that I felt was the real deal.
Keep on collecting vintage and be selective on the modern cards/sets you go into, but collect/invest with an open mind and dont limit yourself to a certain genre. Even if the plays dont work out, it is fun to be looking forward to new sets as well and collect some beautiful new cards that you like.
My millenial brain makes me like vintage carddass cards because of nostalgia, but I never liked WOTC cards… I like few Ex and XY era cards, but I really like cards starting from the sun and moon era. There’s no rule.
I came here to post the ¿Por qué no los dos? meme, but Scott beat me to it.
I say buy what you like and don’t spend too much time worrying about its future value. We don’t know how long we have on this Earth, so you might as well enjoy your collectibles and hobbies while you’re still breathing.
Personally, I enjoy both and will continue to buy vintage and modern into the foreseeable future. If you’re overly concerned with value, diversification may help to ease your worries.
Exactly, which is why I do buy both and am enjoying it every day ; ) Enjoyment, however, for me is also having conversations about where the Pokémon market is going. So yeah, as you (and Scott) said, why not have both ; ). It seems that a lot of people here assume that a post like this means you are in this for advice/worrying about your investment. If so than my way of communicating (online) doesn´t resonate too well with this forum. But, maybe I´m reading it wrong. Anyway, yes enjoy.
