This is a bit untrue, there were many similar discussions to this back in 2020. There was so much debate that the word “bubble” was autochanged to “bubblebath” as a joke
Here’s a good example
I think people are just naturally adverse to the term for whatever reason. Especially when you’re living through it. It’s easy to look back and make an assessment after the fact
[quote=“pfm, post:58, topic:40330”]
Reading the replies, it seems like the word “bubble” itself is pretty loaded and turns people off of the idea.
Right. If the term bubble was omitted and we just said “Speculative”, we wouldn’t bother defining a bubble and we would rather just discuss our own observations and our appetites for collecting and risk.
The ultra modern Japanese market feels a bit too speculative or hyped for my taste.
I remember but that was certainly a bubble in 2020 and has since popped. It also was not specific to a language.
Cant speak to what is happening now with jpn cards but the mere suggestion that jpn cards/collectors may not be as “pure” as people think and may in fact be facing the same stonk baller problems that english faces is funny to me because i get the vibe from many jpn elitists that only true collectors buy jpn stuff and they disapprove of what happened to English. As blasphemous as it is, and Having done no research at all, i would hard disagree with the idea that jpn waifu stonkers are in it for the love of the hobby. And that alone to me feels like some sort of bubble. And yes id still say english is in a bubble too
I don’t disagree with the content of what you’re saying here but maybe the characterization of Japanese collectors. The average topic discussed by modern Japanese collectors is about prices, supply and those images from Facebook where people have stacks of boxes.
Maybe we just float in different circles though
The vibe I get is that any elitism comes primarily from the quality of the product moreso than the purity of the market
I think the “Japanese collector elitism” is siloed to collecting forums and niche groups.
If you go to your local community trade night, you’ll see that 90%+ of collectors are English-focused and could not care less about Japanese cards. It’s often the hardcore fans who put in the extra effort to source and collect Japanese cards, and hardcore fans of any hobby are often a bit elitist.
I think theres an attitude that JP is ‘better’ financially, or that its more ‘recession proof’ in the sense that ‘JP cards cant/ wont go down.’ This is anecdotal, but Ive been really picking up that vibe. Something i thought was funny too, as wisewailmer kinda pointed out, when people were buying pallets of english boxes in 2020, it was easy to say something was wrong, but now that effectively the same thing is happening in Japan, there seems to be reluctance to acknowledge that this isnt just your average supply shortage. Maybe “bubble” is the operative word here.
Either way, the shit winds are blowing in and the brewings of a shit storm seem to be afoot lmao
I believe that it is speculative but not in a bubble. I believe this argument applies to english modern more than Japanese. There are some cards that are overpriced like moonbreon but it’s not at the level that all cards are going to crash if something happens. Modern Japanese has many rare and unique cards that I believe are fairly priced.
Want to echo this, A bit anecdotal, but I went to a gaming convention this weekend that had a ton of card vendors, with even an entire small room just for Pokémon. Maybe about 20-30% had Japanese singles and even less had Japanese packs. I’ve been surprised about it since because I’m so engrossed in Japanese through what I buy and e4, but reading this over it may not be as common nowadays as I thought.
Yep. My username was MrBubblebaths for the longest time.
Cheers!
I can only speak for myself, but my response is stronger on Japanese because I have much more experience dealing with Japan. Especially with distribution. Also Japan has historically handled balancing supply better than the US.
Part of the problem is the term “bubble” is meaningless. This is just a supply/demand issue that can be resolved by more supply. Lets look at an actual bubble, beanie babies. What ended the beanie baby craze? Supply. The same with 2020 english or the next time we ride this same ride.
I was amused by the top two for the first 27 votes, though (hence the screenshot I saved). 
Greetz,
Quuador
At first, I would say neutral, because there are elements of it, I’m sure, especially with how good these sets are, BUT the question is, “Is it IN a bubble?” Not whether there is speculation, so I’ve gotta say disagree. As a chronic fence sitter, I’m almost never going to be of the extreme opinon.
highly aggre with this take, specially on the buyback/mystery pack point. Have seen some cards DOUBLE in price (original price already in 4 figures+) in the span of a single month when comparing to shops’ own buyback prices.
gotta wonder just how high prices will reach before something breaks, and if it happens will prices restore to somewhat reasonable levels…
edit:
should add it may not be that card shops are just deciding to increase prices on their own, but that because people can easily sell at buyback price public supply may be drying up. From the card shops side it is pretty low risk because these mystery packs sell out easily. this creates a cycle where people sell their cards to shops as opposed to other people, and the shop then offloads inventory through these packs. the result is low public supply which adds to the feeling that these cards are scarce and can only be acquired for insane prices or getting lucky in the mystery packs.
Seeing the juiced prices of the Eevee Casual Battle (032/SV-P) and Classroom Promos (033/SV-P) plummet over the past few weeks gives me a bit of faith that JP singles buyers will eventually come to their senses (if the card in question isn’t a FA waifu).
Also glad that we have a few content creators making videos that aim to educate buyers and prevent them from feeding into the artificial hype. Ptcgradio made a great video on these Eevee cards when Magi was buying them from people for $300 a pop, for example.
Disagree. Although I only have experience with Vstar Universe for modern.
I bought a box of Vstar from SMPratte for $103 on 1/31/23. Now boxes are regularly going for well into the $80 range 3 months later, which is exactly what we expect to happen after a popular set is released and then printed to meet demand. Here are some other NM raw prices I transacted on this past week:
$51 - 28 AR set ($1.82/card)
$21 - 6 Radiant cards $3.50/card)
$94 - 5 SAR ($18.80/card including Mewtwo, Suicine, Raikou etc.)
The downward trend in prices on boxes and reasonable cost of singles, for what’s been called “arguably the best set of all time” (by many on E4) doesn’t add up to me. The artwork, texture and quality of the cards are phenomenal. If the price of Vstar dropped tomorrow, I’d just buy more of it.
Waifu on the other hand is just weird. I don’t understand the hype and I honestly don’t have to. It appears there is outsized demand for whatever reason, but supply is beginning to catch up and satisfy that demand. Elesa Sparkle PSA 10 went for $506 on Jan 23, and are now trading for $263. That matches the a similar downward trajectory as Vstar boxes. Supply and demand appear to be equalizing over time for “arguably the best set of all time”.
I feel there is (understandably) a disconnect between foreign ebay sellers/buyers and what is actually happening on the ground in Japan for regular consumers. There is no way that supply is meeting demand. If a store like Yodobashi Camera put out 100 VStar Universe boxes right now at retail price then people would ravenously buy up them up within a couple hours max and people would still be wanting more. Japan is just in a weird place right now. Lots of other collectable like watches and hobby stuff like Gundam models are just being gobbled up left right and center. These crazy are prices are a reflection of that crazed demand and lack of supply rather than any specific investment strategy lol.
supply issue > anything else
Agreed. I got back from Japan recently from a 2 week trip and I found ONE shop that had vstar packs out just able to grab for MSRP and it happened to be all the way out in Kumamoto. I bought 3 to open for fun.
Every other shop either was out of stock or had it at double the price. Same for every other set, the demand on cards is nuts.
I will say I did notice that basically every shop had upwards of 5-10 copies of all of these chase waifus in their display cases. I know japanese people love to gamble, hence the popularity of gacha, but do people just buy the packs to open and sell the hits back to the shops for the thrill.
Last note is it’s not just pokemon cards. Most shops were out of one piece packs as well. And another shop I happened upon right as they opened and there was a line of 20 ppl waiting to pick up packs of a new tcg that just dropped, I think it was Union Arena. TCG’s are just kinda booming and there isn’t enough supply to go around.
Personally I don’t see “supply issues” and a bubble being mutually exclusive
The simple definition of a bubble is having an asset exceed its “normal market value” for a sustained period. The part about a bubble that causes fear is that eventually prices will fall back down to a normal equilibrium. All prices in economics are based on the balance of supply and demand so of course every bubble that has ever happened can be described as a “supply issue” or a “demand issue”
I think in the case of Pokemon cards, defining what “normal market value” is the challenging part and where many people could disagree.
Yep, well said.
All “bubbles” are eventually fixed by supply and demand.
