Is the modern Japanese Pokemon card market in a speculative bubble?

Ah okay. I thought you were talking about English in general.

But do keep in mind that in late 2020 and early 2021, people were actually grading a bunch of modern reverse holos that would have been utterly worthless in any other time period.

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Ok, that is true
 lol I remember multiple people who sent in a bunch of commons to get graded then didn’t even want to pay anymore and would rather psa keep the cards.

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Just seems absurd that 2x MSRP is now considered “relatively affordable” and 3x MSRP is the new standard with some sets blowing that out of the water.

Well yes, relatively affordable means affordable when compared to everything else.

I wish we could go back to the days of ordering as many Japanese boxes as we wanted for 15% off MSRP, but that’s just not the case anymore and hasn’t been the case for awhile. I think we’re going on three years of the floor for Japanese sets being 1.5x over MSRP excluding some outliers like Dark Phantasma/Pokemon GO.

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Unfortunate if prices stay trending upwards on release is all I’m saying. I love to collect and open the newest sets but at these prices I’d rather just buy singles instead of opening at all.

I strongly agreed. The price of waifus shooting up to record amounts every set despite the popularity of the character suggests so and then it brings the price of the sealed product up as well.

Easy manipulation of prices as stated by @rabby250 with zero checks and balances.

Also I think the fact that the singles itself of most cards aren’t inflated does add credence to this as opposed to being a point against the bubble.

If people are blindly purchasing new ‘waifu cards’ for whatever insane out-the-gate price is going without comparing to other options, isn’t that pure euphoria?

When SAR Dendra who is (legit having to Google to find out) a S&V school teacher who I think I went through the whole game without interacting with, is priced so far above things in the same sphere like Misty & Lorelei or Cynthia, which you’d think are so much more beloved, it seems really odd.

Unless there is some underlying waifu fundamental I’m unaware of, it seems that these cards would have to reach more of a parity eventually, and I’d be leaning a lot more towards Dendra dropping.

I voted agree just because the waifu stuff is so wacky to me, which then by association affects the sealed product.

However, everything else I agree is reasonably priced. Most other JP singles etc are still a little cheaper than English options, I think people are just used to them being a lot cheaper than their English counterparts and I don’t think that status is something that will return as more and more people come to prefer Japanese.

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Perhaps I should have been a bit more clear. People aren’t comparing waifu cards to other older Pokemon cards because they aren’t Pokemon collectors, they’re waifu collectors. So to us, a 1k modern trainer seems insane because we think of all the older, rarer, minter, better etc cards we would buy with that money. But a waifu collector doesn’t care about older Pokemon cards, or indeed may not care about cards featuring Pokemon at all.

It does seem odd until you realize the above point: these people aren’t Pokemon collectors. So it doesn’t matter whether the character is some huge important Pokemon character or whether they’re a nobody like Dendra or Miriam. Attractive anime woman on card = buy. If we keep trying to make these prices make sense through the lens of Pokemon fundamentals, we’ll never be able to do it and it’ll seem like a bubble. But in many cases it’s not Pokemon fundamentals which are driving the prices.

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How central a character is to a game doesn’t necessarily correspond to how popular that character will be (and, in turn, how in demand or expensive their cards will be). Otherwise, the Penny SAR should be several times the price of the Dendra SAR
and not the other way around, as is the actual case.

A quick search on Twitter for Dendra’s Japanese name seems to suggest she’s pretty popular in Japan. Japanese collectors (by this I mean collectors who are Japanese) may have views that aren’t really voiced in anything other than Japanese, so they don’t show up on forums like e4. However, I think it would be a mistake to ignore their preferences when talking about the price of Japanese cards, as they have the most direct access to these cards and thus a major impact on their prices.

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all I know is that Clay Burst pre-orders being at nearly 6x MSRP everywhere just because an Iono common was announced last week is hysterical. consumers don’t even know what the chase version of her looks like, just horny on main for the waifu (also doesn’t help that the card looks like it’ll be relatively meta). I think in that very specific capacity, it is speculative because by definition, people are speculating that will be a massive white whale to pull but I think that is mostly me arguing semantics with the term “speculative bubble”. although, it’s very easy to see how this is more of an issue with regards to supply issues and that can be applied to any other set recently. wait, I think I’m talking myself into neutral/disagree now

lots of well thought out “agree” and “disagree” post though. great discussion

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I think @fourthstartcg has a point that a large proportion of Waifu collectors have no interest in Pokemon at all, which creates artificial and often disproportionate demand from our Pokemon-centric perspective.

BUT I disagree that most or all Waifu collectors are not into Pokemon.

There is a substantial and growing demand within the Pokemon community. It may not be well-represented on e4, but if you scroll through Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, etc. you’ll see a ton of Waifu Pokemon enthusiasts (who also collect other Pokemon cards and/or play the TCG).

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People like collecting expensive cards
 Now that waifus have overtaken alt arts, they’re the new ‘‘chase cards’’

They technically have their own ‘alt arts’, which is why both PokĂ©mon and Supporters now have SR (full art) and Special Art Rare (or Special Illustration Rare) from VSTAR Universe and onwards

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This is just a singular anecdote but I think store behaviour like this in Japan is also contributory to the current mess that is the Japanese modern market


Even if we’re not in a bubble, modern Japanese is too hot and in my opinion overvalued

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Probably. There’s a ton of speculation in JP modern. I believe JP is miles better than English, so I’m definitely guilty of that myself. There is also a ton of organic demand (also guilty), so it’ll be interesting to see where things go moving forward. I really enjoy ripping JP modern, it’s an integral part of my enjoyment of the hobby, so I hope things calm down a bit, so I can continue to enjoy that lol

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The overall sentiment is leaning towards agree

55% think some bubbly thing is going on

1/4 stayed neutral, which I also think is interesting. Most markets do not exist in a bubble at any given time. The default stance should be that there is no bubble, it seems that most people think at least something weird is happening in Japan. Reading the replies, it seems like the word “bubble” itself is pretty loaded and turns people off of the idea.

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Its funny to see this thread lol. People love calling english a ridiculous bubble, but as soon as it comes to the japansese side, everyone panics. There seems to be a sense of Japanese elitism that could come down a few pegs in this hobby. I dont really have an opinion on jpn cards because i cant read them and therefore dont buy them, but man it seems to have struck a nerve. Bubble is an abrasive term i guess

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There seems to be a sense of Japanese elitism that could come down a few pegs in this hobby.

I think there are legitimate reasons related to print quality and set cohesion/size as to why people would prefer Japanese over English, but a lot of the knee-jerk “JP > ENG” sentiment is eerily similar to the “Sub > Dub” crowd in the anime community.

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Lol so true, i dont dare compare it to crypto bros but “oh is that fiat? No no there isnt anything wrong with that, Ill just continue to change the world with my crypto”

Lol

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