Alright, the crux of this topic is that the Masaki Gengar is one of the few cards I’ll permit myself to buy this year after realizing I prefer quality over quantity in terms of collection goals, for display pieces and such.
Pre-boom, these were easily found $100, with low pop reports in general.
Nowadays is the focus though. Raw Gengars can easily run up to $700 or as low as $300 depending on condition. PSA 5/6/7 copies according to PSA’s own website can go as low as $250 up to $500.
From my time here and learning about the common surface dents leading to an automatic 5/6 on what are otherwise flawless cards, I lean towards buying a 6 from a cost and aesthetic standpoint, worried more about the card than the grade.
My question to you all, who have probably seen these cards sell for pennies before I could have even owned a credit card, is how do you think increasing pop reports will impact the pricing and availability? Only 1,287 have currently been graded with PSA, 394 of which falling in that 5/6 range, out of the 36,000 that Bulbapedia claims to have been printed. I have some irrational fear that I won’t be able to find one I’m happy with by the end of the year but I realize it’s impossible for them to never see the market continually.
My quick advice would be to just be patient in finding the right one for you and not worry about the market/pop report in general.
The Masaki are not common cards but also there is still a decent supply out there. They are not going to all disappear, there is more raw supply out there and the 394 aren’t gone forever into some abyss.
Just wait for one you really like and be willing and ready to pay a bit more for it than the market would and you’ll be happier in the long run vs. trying to buy the next one you see or trying to snag one at a deal.
I collected all these cards last year and had much the experience that you are describing.
Japanese promos are subject to a lot of price variation driven by both condition and print quality (re: centering). It is staggering to see cards sell for either half or double the median based on what is actually a rather narrow condition gap. I never knew what to budget for one of these cards and finding one suitable for my collection was challenging.
There is an odd quality to these cards where I think their value is less depending on population and driven more by condition, quality, and location. Japanese sellers ask for very high prices on English marketplaces and do not negotiate price, so to buy a card in a familiar place with buyer protections commands a big premium. You can try to import one from a Japanese website, but then you lose all your communication potential and buyer protection.
The fact the cards are hard to buy, hard to grade, are subject to print defects, have suffered condition-wise from a more play-oriented Japanese audience, make them… complicated. They’re complicated in ways a lot of WotC cards just aren’t. I don’t think PSA pop is going to be a big influence on these cards because their complicated traits will continue to make them challenging to collect.
If anything, an increased population in higher grades might cause them to demand a higher and higher premium as more collectors recognize them as a feasible shortcut to avoid all the difficulty of buying these cards raw.
Thank you for the write up, I appreciate the different perspective as a lot of these I wouldn’t have even been able to consider unless I spent as much time as you did hunting these cards and being in the market.
For future’s sake, by Japanese websites, do you mean yahoo.auction.jp and similar sites? That’s territory I haven’t stepped into yet for the same reasons you mentioned. Buyer protection and language/interface familiarity are worth a premium for many.
@pfm I’m coming to accept this as opposed to last Autumn when I first started buying cards I thought I wanted but quickly realized the gratification wore off quick unless it was something I had put more thought into beforehand. Lesson learned and money lost but in the long run it’s not crazy. Patience seems to be the best value of all. When it comes to my grails I want to feel joy everytime I look at them. Thank you for the reassurance!
Yes, those are the sites I mean. JP Mercari and Yahoo Japan Auction are the big ones. Services like Buyee make the process easier, but you still open yourself up to a lot more risk. You have no communication with the buyer and if you get something you’re unhappy with, or something other than what you ordered, there isn’t anything you can really do.
I’ve purchased several cards I could only find on these websites, so they have their benefits. But I’m only comfortable spending so much money there, I guess. The more expensive the card, the more apprehensive I am about that route.
I like wise have become pretty enamored by the Masaki promos. I grew up playing Blue and Red…having sleep overs with friends swapping Pokemon back and forth to get the full dex/exclusive trade evolutions. When I found out about the Masaki promos, it brought back a ton of nostalgia.
What I noticed: The winter (Q4) had prices very low for the Masaki set. I picked up an Alakazam PSA 8 for around $180 on eBay…Gengar PSA 8 for $700ish. After the PWCC auction for the PSA 10 Gengar “ended” at 20K+, that’s when I noticed the shift in prices (along with the movement to Q1). The prices now are definitely higher than the winter. Looking back at historical pricing, it appears were back to Q1-Q3 2023 pricing. PSA 9 Gengars are selling for 1.5-2K easily now…whereas in the Q4 2023 winter, there were multiple copies on eBay sub $1700
I will say that Japanese sellers on eBay mark copies at large premiums…especially good condition copies. I bought a few off Mercari JP and Yahoo JP. Like Stagecoach said, its hard not having direct communication or recourse for any negative transactions. I actually had a seller bait and switch a Gengar on me. Listed and pictured was a near pristine copy…I won the bid (for a good price at the time) and the copy I received had an entirely different holo pattern with whitening. 100% a swapped out copy. So its definitely a risk…reward situation. My advise would be keep on keeping…checking different auction houses/platforms