People are not able to go to bars, restaurants etc. a lot of people still have jobs and have the same disposable income.
As soon as people stop being able to make a quickl flip for hundreds. We will see who has the passion to hold these for years to come.
I work in finance, and everyone is cracking jokes about Tesla, so not the best example. If you look at the recent buyers of the stock, they’re mostly retail investors who typically buy on momentum, not institutional investors who are sophisticated in investing.
I don’t have any insider advice but Tesla hasn’t launched any massive fundraisings recently despite their high stock price. i wonder why is this so to be honest as its weird. Nevertheless, in a stock sale transaction, typically you place the shares to institutional investors, and i wonder if the reasons why they haven’t fundraised is because the buyer pool i.e. institutional investors, are not interested to buy at current prices? Maybe someone else here in finance could form an alternative view as im not expert here.
The early increases of Tesla may have made sense, but the latest increases are, by virtually all valuation indicators, a bubble.
That was the point @pichufan was trying to make. The early increases could be viewed as a long overdue correction. But the recent increases, especially for low end cards with a lot of supply still in hiding that have exploded 20x, are likely driven by demand that is a lot more speculative and may not know what they’re doing.
I am glad Tesla stock was referenced. Its a reminder how markets are larger than any opinion or feeling.
I remember when people were shorting Tesla at $400 a share. Billions of dollars spent shorting Tesla because its “speculative, won’t last”. Today its $2,229 per share.
Oh and remember, companies can offer more shares, as Tesla is about to do with their split. I can’t split more charizords. Collectibles are more limited. And the market participation is as well, especially in pokemon. Therefore even a small increase in the buyer pool can create dramatic movement, especially on limited availability items.
I’m not arguing for the merits of Tesla in particular. I always understand skepticism when there is a surge in prices over a relatively short period of time for all the reasons mentioned. At the same time, one could have said the same thing for the price growth we saw for Pokemon cards in 2016 (and people did) yet prices never again fell back to close to what they were before 2016. I know this is a repetitious argument that we’ve all been having for months at this point but what else can one say?
The interesting (less discussed) part of the OP’s question is why some sets will become “hot” and then the focus shifts to other things.
The current run of increased prices actually goes back to 2019 when we saw price increases in sets like Gym Heroes/Challenge, then Jungle/Fossil, then Neo/e-Series and then really across a wide swath of the TCG spectrum. Base Set was probably like the last to really move but now has been on a extended run while most sets level off.
It’s hard to pinpoint the source of why different sets go on these runs. There’s probably some degree to which influential individuals may cause a run on a certain card or set, some degree to which some cards/sets naturally lead people to looking at other cards/sets, and a lot of randomness. And then at some point there is a critical point reached in which people say “everything seems to keep going up, so the answer is just to buy everything.”
Of course, understanding all the factors that influence these things isn’t something that the best economist in the world could do.
I’m using tesla as a example of something that went from a correction to true value to speculative. It’s hard to see where a hill becomes a mountain, but at some point it does
This logic assumes the capital available to the “knowledgeable” community was static.
The value of my collection probably went up between 5x and 15x from middle of 2019 to the middle of this year. As a single example, I have scream Pikachus that went from $30 to nearly $1000. I am not alone in that boat. “Knowledgeable” people are smart enough to know to capitalize on what they bought pre-2020 and reposition or use that money to buy what they want. I could sell 5 scream Pikachus and buy a Southern Islands mew for what is effectively a net $150 from my account. This is a really specific example but highlights my point.
If the market was a closed system, something like this would likely not happen. For things across the board to increase as they have, you need some external money entering the market. I think the main question everyone wants and answer to is where did the injection of money come from? I don’t think there’s one answer. There are many people with significant capital from MTG (some are members of this forum) that have injected something on the order of millions. Stimulus checks happened in the US. People had more free time to browse ebay which made it a more competitive marketplace. People are directed here by Gary Vee. Then there is the positive feedback loop of the success people are having in the market drawing in more Gary Vee-type influencers and the people who follow them.
There’s probably 20 other things that could play a role that I didn’t mention. The point is that there is not one explanation, just a series of variables that changed because of (but not limited to) what was essentially a global lockdown.
The point is, the guys were wrong to short tesla at $400, but that does not mean the guys shorting them at $2229 today are wrong
If tesla went up to 10k a share tomorrow, it would be a no brainer short. And if pokemon goes up another 5x tomorrow, it too will likely be a no brainer short.
Just as the market doesn’t care about your feelings if pokemon cards increase 5x, it too, also doesn’t care about your feelings if the alpha lotus drops 70%
But we are not talking about feelings here. I personally am just trying to navigate this market correctly to minimize losses and maximize gains.
Retail traders (the 1% of the market that is Robinhooders) cannot move a $400b market cap stock in any meaningful way. It’s institutional buying. The institutions/PMs are buying because they need to show Tesla ownership in their quarterly reports or investors will think they are bad at their jobs 
Some truth there. But actually, the hottest markrt right now is the China Starboard market, which has the highest valuations across any stock market I think. And it’s 97% retail investors for the entire exchange if I recall correctly.
Well yeah lol, institutions don’t want to play hot potato with large investor funds on Chinese startups that could go poof overnight. Retail speculators on the other hand…
Except they are not only startups. Many are established companies institutions would love to invest in. In aggregate the amounts they raised over the past year is only second to the new york stock exchange or something.
Point is, there’s a lot of unsophisticated demand pools out there that are not as resilient
Anyway ive made my point. I am of course booing the party while sitting on substantial paper profits from pokemon, I’m fine if I’m wrong. In fact I’m happy to be wrong, I’d like to buy a nice Patek philippe minute repeater someday
Hooooooly shit! Last I checked these were $80 in PSA 10. Even the Eevee is selling for over $250! 
Thank you. Time to dig out the shoe box I’ve been keeping all mine in.
HODL
I don’t know what my collection is worth now, but I know that I’ve spent $500k+ on Pokemon cards that are currently in my collection, ALL in 2020. Probably $300k of that was in the January/February timeframe. 75% or more was spent by the end of March. I have a spreadsheet where I track each purchase and it’s all tallied. I do NOT update it with current values. But I have tracked the extra cards I’ve churned through building my sets and the net sale prices, and those have been like a 60%+ IRR after fees. That is nuts over such a short time period, and it’s been too much to ignore.
I have NO plans to sell the cards I bought to build a collection. But I have sold EVERY one of my extra cards into the rising market. Those cards weren’t purchased as investments. Mostly they were cards purchased either out of pure OCD “why not” and also as a result of changing my collecting goals. Regardless, the state of the market definitely altered my view on selling them versus just keeping them in my closet. Everything I have sold has generally exceeded my estimates for what it would sell for by quite a bit.
I feel like most sophisticated collectors are probably like me. A mix of buying/selling/investing. If I was a flipper or unemotional about these things, I would have stopped buying in March and would have just sold everything I had bought already. As it is I have no plans to sell my cards. I assume they will go up in value in aggregate but don’t plan on monitoring the values on a micro level. I still have quite a few collecting goals, and plan on adding to them and revising them over time. One of the best things about Pokemon, along with the vibrant and engaged community, is the number of ways to collect. The number of items are vast. If I never get bored and can always have new goals, then I think that helps ensure that I’ll be engaged in this hobby for a long time to come. My mentality with Pokemon is similar to the stock market where I just buy the index. In Pokemon, I have just kind of bought everything so if the market moves, for better or worse, my collection value will move with it. I’m bullish on the long-term value and potential for the hobby, as I have consistently stated.
EDIT: I have not bought everything (obvi)… but most notably have stayed away from trophies and promo cards. This is personal and unique to my situation. I understand set cards and completing sets. I am not tied into the TCG aspect of the hobby so at this time don’t yet feel comfortable going there. Trophy cards may arguably be the best investment in the hobby, but for me it’s a matter of personal comfort.
I get what you mean. But people trying to force financial reasoning to an emotional market are always going to misunderstand.
Take the recent Mike Trout record breaking sale. People were constantly hating on the guy for buying it at 400k. 2 years later he sells for 3.9m. I personally don’t care for the card, but my reaction was, “I’m not really surprised”. I am also not surprised if another comparable or similar item would sell for less. As seen with the lotus. Because collectibles are an emotional market.
I think a good example to drive this point home: I just spent 10k today on a couple alpha cards. Did I plan on that happening today, no. Am I trying to make a big money move, no. Its just an ongoing passive collecting goal that happens emotionally. I can’t predict what things I will buy even tomorrow. Hopefully that helps identify the inherent nuance of collecting.
I remember being told I was crazy for buying a psa 7 no. 1 pika for 4k.
It’s all relative.
I will say I don’t think that the sustained push in literally every aspect of Pokemon can continue. There is simply too much for all of it to keep growing at any rate like we are seeing now.
But many things are highly desirable, and with all the new eyes are adjusting accordingly. Experience and a little bit of luck help sort out what’s what
I’m in a similar situation as some other members. I’m a old collector but also new collector. I started collecting from base thru fossil when I was a kid.
I rejoined the hobby after watching Detective Pikachu on Netflix (Great movie by the way) I also watched some Leonhart Videos, Smpratte, TCA Gaming, Z and G etc. This was back in October well before convoid.
I also have genuine interest regardless of value. I proved that by buying mostly ungraded cards. Every collector here almost is all about PSA 9s and 10s. Everyone knows the better “Investment” would be graded cards or sealed product, trophies etc. Although now that my binder collection is pretty much complete I’m expanding my graded collection.
These price increases have made me appreciate my cards even more but also doesn’t help me. I’m not selling so price increases makes things harder to buy.
At one point I was almost full of myself or just simply confused. I started thinking the market was following me because with in a month of collecting damn near any card in my collection the value doubled, tripped, or better with some rare exceptions of cards that didn’t increase. Obviously I know this isn’t true but the coincidences had me incredibly confused.
Overall I’m happy with what I have and I’m glad I came back before the spikes but again this doesn’t help me currently it only makes collecting more difficult. But I will keep on collecting because it’s what I enjoy!
does it suck that cards will cost me more than they did a couple months ago? Yes
Will i still collect? Absolutely
Many cards are still affordable. I have continued to buy cards at the current time that have not experienced the same growth as others.
Do you mind elaborating?