I don’t think you addressed this earlier point from pfm:
What was happening in mid-2020 to the Pokemon market? Is that environment similar to or different than the current environment?
If PSA 10 Charizard GX has been approximately the same price for 4 years, why hasn’t the box price skyrocketed if the value of the highest chase card in PSA 10 should predict the box price?
I have no control over what other people think. I never posted in the thread myself.
I read through that thread a bit and a ton of people were also agreeing with you. Some even bought boxes. But yeah some disagreed but disagreement is a good thing if you care about truth.
I have no doubt Burning Shadows will increase from $400. All boxes from every era and every language in this hobby universally trend in one direction long-term. Primarily I disagree with the logic of why and when. As I mentioned, the same logic in this thread was relevant 4 years ago.
Well you have quite a proven track record! Quite a weird, soggy, hill to die on in this thread
Slight update:
The sealed case premium is rising. There are 0 cases available that I can find and no market data on tcgplayer. The last 4 sealed cases sold on ebay for $3k, which is about a $100 premium per box.
For single boxes, there are 18 listings on tcgplayer and ~40 on ebay. Not sure how many of those are cross-posted listings though. Lowest price is $415 on tcgplayer, so hasn’t moved much yet.
Also 7 confirmed sales of the PSA 10 rainbow Charizard between $2400-$3,000 in the past 2 months 
I just wanted to jump in for a quick update…
Boxes are now selling for $700-$750 on eBay and Charizard is at $3k, while the lowest case on TCG player is 7,500 and the lowest case on ebay is $9,000. Hardly any available.
Also, if you jump to my other thread where people told me the same shtick about Evolutions and how they’d never go up because everyone has closets full when they were $110 a box… boxes are selling for $1200+, sealed cases are selling for $9,000 and the lowest case available is $10,000 lol
I’m sure there will still be some whataboutisms in here, but I’m really just posting for anyone searching the future. If you find odd discrepancies in prices, believe your own eyes, not people on the interwebz.
Every SM and XY set has stonked recently and it’s not because of any niche card analysis. It’s because people want what they consider older sets that are still relatively affordable or they want to speculate that a certain modern mechanic like megas or Team rocket will pump their older counterparts
You could have predicted literally any of them to go up and you’d have been right. I hope you stocked up on them because far too often people choose times like rn to begin their stocking up
Still too low! 
My point is the box went up 45% while the card only went up 20% in the same boom cycle. The gap is closing and just about to reach capitulation.
There are only 4 cases available out there on ebay/tcg. Once one of them sells for close to what they’re asking it will drag the boxes up exponentially while the card not so much.
Same thing is happening with Evolutions. The limited cases are selling for the lowest asks and dragging the single boxes up.
Sealed and their contents rarely grow together. It’s the growth of one that eventually causes people like you to buy the other and so on and so on
Gold stars were the price of a couple packs for years while boxes were 30-40k, then they grew. Now obviously box sellers use this as an opportunity to say oh my 30k box is now 60k, but they can only do that because there’s not enough to go around or public sales data.
There’s plenty of SM so the cause and effect takes more time and people
Those are silly prices for cases…looking beyond tcg/ebay, it didn’t take long to find multiple cases available for $4,799 each.
Oh shoot! You’re right.. that case is only up 100% since 12 months ago. Hope no one listened to me.
I used TCG and eBay because other than being in network, those are the top two places people are going for comps when buying or selling. Once that private sale takes place and no one ever knows about it we’re right back in the $7,500 baseline for cases.
Well I don’t disagree there, that is kind of the point of the whole thread. It was an obvious opportunity
This comment has generally been echoed but let me frame it to you another way.
If you use the logic that is in your first post
then take out a new mortgage on your house and buy a 1st edition base set booster box for, whats the going rate these days? 200-$250k?
The probability of pulling a charizard is actually very high and a psa10 charizard sells for around the same price. Especially a Gem new 10 with a brand new cert
on top of it think about all the Bulbasaur’s you will pull. Think about wartortles, the dragonairs… And THEN you still have the chance to pull multiple red cheeks pikachus
And what about the other 11 holos you will likely pull? all worth big $$
All the singles you will have since every one of them is worth $$ pack fresh
then think you can pull TWO Charizards
no brainer right?
well you simply cant think of it in these terms…
every set is unique
you are banking on pulling a charizard AND grading that zard as a 10
when you bring in the conditions, the actual pulls rates and the grading gem rates everything changes… I know it would be nice to just use a general formula/ratio but the sets are truly unique and the conditions must be considered separately
@pokenoob the way you interact with other users on this website reminds me of Draco Malfoy in A Very Potter Musical
