indeed. i just threw out 15 bc i have no idea. last time i saw, i think it was around 10-12k?, but i just don’t recall exactly
Yes every card you can pull from the boosterbox, I use Cardmarket as I’m from The Netherlands.
Some sets come out worse in this formula because I use 10 cards. In the example of Paldea vs Celebrations, the 6th to 10th place of Celebrations cards are all around 5 euro only. While in Paldea, the lowest is 11. Combine that with a booster pack price of 8 euro versus 3 euro and then that’s what you get. If I used for example only the top 3 cards it would be much much closer. That is also why I posted it here, to see if someone had a better idea or maybe a reasoning I should use 5/8/10 cards for example.
You are right, it is not the only aspect to consider. I never claimed that you should do that haha. I use this as a simple overview, after this I do a little research on available supply, think about possible reprints etc. Temporal is #5 because it is a new set, singles are always expensive in a new set. Then they drop and the set will drop on the list too.
Of course you can for sure only buy the cheapest packs, everything will go up. This is a tool to help identify which one will go up faster. We could have bought Evolving and Battle Styles both at 3, but wouldn’t you rather have put all your money in Evolving instead of splitting it between those 2?
100% yes!
Many modern boxes have 4-5x in the last 5 years too. The last 5 years growth rate is essentially unrepeatable in the near future without tons of new vintage collectors joining the market
the jp shield box is like $700 which is a 17.5x lol
That’s untrue. Unlike singles, where you have to pair each copy with a collector to reduce supply, box breaks will continue to happen with the same number of vintage collectors and supply will continue to erode.
That’s great but not only is that not typical performance, you are also nearly 2x off in your price estimation from what I can tell
My point is not that base set or vintage is a better choice. You will have less risk and a more predictable experience buying modern. But I can also see a future where vintage box breaks continue to happen at a steady pace and the supply of vintage boxes hits an inflection point where boxes continue to climb to a point where breaking them makes little sense. Might take 5 years, 10 years or 20. But I still see the upside potential of vintage until box breaks stop happening. And I think the upper ceiling of a box headed towards extinction is not the same as a freshly printed set.
I would agree with the logic but I disagree that there is an easy formula that can predict which set will do better. In the same way that you can’t really predict winners and losers in the stock market without some major advantage. The most consistent strategy is to buy a broad set of stocks/boxes
For base specifically I would not hold my breath that breakers will have any noticable impact on supply. I’d say that goes for all wotc up to ereaders.
Box breakers can only break so long as they have buyers and with singles and graded copies dropping I suspect break buyers will dwindle with time. People still break at absurd prices, but I see more and more shady methods like raffles for slots occuring. Meaning buyers are doing the math. Supply of boxes may also be beyond saving at that point, but it may not. They are reprinting wotc after all. It’s astounding that base boxes remain stable at 13ish with dozens for sale every week.
It’s just easier to move modern in price. For a 30k box to hit 40k is a big stretch that depends on many factors and many people behaving exactly as predicted. But for 30k of crown zenith etbs to hit 60k is just a matter of time
I hope vintage sealed does well. I just see no universe where it outpaces modern in the next 10 years
a box is like $40 or so at msrp right?
I don’t mind discussing the future of vintage boxes and comparing to modern but it would be better as it’s own thread than derailing the discussion here
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i’m mostly just meming, but ultimately the point of “with enough time, everything will go up” is the bottom line.
i still think it’s funny that the bottom 5 or whatever sets in this calculation are charizard sets