Given that Lv.X cards are the chase card of an entire generation (Gen 4), I feel like they should be valued more than they are. The most expensive PSA 9 is $600-$800ish. The cheapest LV.X cards are dozens of dollars in PSA 9. Imagine a Shining, Crystal, or Gold Star card selling for ~$100 in PSA 9 in 2024. 
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I think it’d be more apt to compare them to ex cards, not gold stars or shinings
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Fair enough, though if I applied my argument then Crystals and Gold Stars and even Shining despite a couple of stock Sugimoris would be on the art side. Lv.X begins the whole trend of oversized CGI Pokemon ultra rare and falls on the filler side.
Agree the investing goal is really just speculating. And since the market fluctuates and can be irrational for literally forever when it comes to some cards/products, best to collect what you like and enjoy. Individual cards can be more volatile than sealed product. You mentioned a product that maybe you wish to enjoy by displaying as sealed? Good start if that is your interest.
Otherwise I agree gold stars with a nod to English are a fair stab for speculating, but I enjoy collecting slabs so my lean is individual cards vs cases of sealed or collector sets or the like. I also collect my favorite arts of my favorite Pokes, and popular Pokes tend to do better when they are trending. Probably my favorite art in the hobby is the Umbreon rookie Neo Discovery. With just under 100 1st ed PSA 10s in English on the planet, and for such a vintage set, I’d bet there won’t ever be more than, say, 300 PSA 10s in my lifetime. Probably less since I’m kinda old. So for such a beautiful card, a rookie card, of a super popular Pokémon, my brain tells me if a Base Set 1st ed Zord with under 150 PSA 10s is what, maybe $170k, why is my girl only at about $7k for a 2001 set card with stellar fundamentals for a set card? I think she should be a $50k card at least, but I could pump that card all day and if the market and/or demand does not agree, I better believe she’s worth at least $7k to me or sell sell sell.
So, full circle, collect what you love and speculate within your means.
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We’re not talking about random 1 of 1 things. We are talking about popular Pokemon cards with built-in demand like a gold star or alt arts.
I think many people on this forum/in the hobby broadly underestimate the power of demand but I think you took this opinion far in the other direction and underestimate the effect of supply. They both play an important role.
High printing/large amounts of graded supply of course affects price. That’s why lottery Eeveelution cards are 1000s of dollars and English copies are 20s of dollars. And if English copies were limited to 1000 copies each, they would also be thousands of dollars.
The problem with a large overall supply is price gravity, a term I just made up now. The price is constantly fighting a downward pressure of supply. The the more supply, the more mass there is to move. The higher the price, the stronger the gravity.
To put it in numbers, imagine Moonbreon in PSA 10 hits $20,000. The market cap on the PSA 10 alone is a quarter of a billion dollars. That’s the equivalent market cap if Rayquaza 
in PSA 10 was $4.7M each. You will never see Moonbreon compete pricewise with many of the gold star 10s and that’s entirely due to supply.
That last point I want to make is that supply in Pokemon is generally constant across time and demand has been completely unpredictable. So in general, the strategies that leverage supply are way less risky than ones that bet on demand. That’s why buying and holding booster boxes is an easy way to make money.
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What about the supply of the highest rarity tiers?
People keep talking about print runs which is a fair point and it’s obviously at record highs since the pandemic but I don’t know if the rarest tier supply has changed that much.
There’s been rarity inflation of course with so many tiers above holo but I feel that number throughout generations might be quite consistent.
Bulk is doing the heavy lifting in those billions.
I’m just not seeing these market cap type arguments. Rayquaza gold star has 48 PSA 10. Umbreon VMAX has 10000. Let’s call Umbreon VMAX in PSA 10 a 1400 card, which is low for recent auctions. Even if we round up Rayquaza population to 100, you’d still need Rayquaza gold star PSA 10 to be a $140k card to match the Umbreon VMAX market cap.
It’s not. And that is because demand simply does not support that type of price, despite the rarity. There are so few available. The price is only 10x an Umbreon despite there being 1/100 the supply (more like 1/200 but still.
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I think it’s more of a cap in what the target demo is willing to spend for any one card.
There may be a lot of people interested in Rayquaza GS or Moonbreon but at a certain price it’s out of budget so the price can’t move up as easily anymore.
Technically there is, but it’s one of those English gift boxes released in Southeast Asia which doesn’t include any cards. Now compare that to the Japanese version…
Buy what you like because if you like it chances are other people will like it too. The more experience you gain, the more refined your taste is which strengthens the aforementioned relationship.
A green flag heuristic I have is: If you go to buy a card you think is really special and think “dang thats a pretty good deal” then buy 2.
On the other hand, if you find yourself trying to haggle with sellers for $10, $20 whatever off list price then that’s a sign your heart isn’t in it. Or that you probably shouldn’t be buying cards right now.
Make sure you don’t have any debt please 
and do not go into debt for anime paper.
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I think you’ve understood my point without realizing it. Moonbreon is more popular (today) than Rayquaza . That’s why the Rayquaza isn’t $140k.
But if Moonbreon is so popular then why is it 10x less valuable than Rayquaza? Supply.
Again going back to my original point. It’s not about pull rate, its about quantity produced. Supply matters. You are not going to see a pattern like the one below for a card that is pop 10k+
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i independently came to same conclusion last night scanning mercari lol
I wouldn’t be shocked if the card does really well in the future. It’s a stunning artwork of a very popular pokemon. The immense Vstar Universe supply will probably keep it pinned down for a good while though.
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I knew there were reprint(s) but I didn’t realise the sheer quantity still available until last week, especially considering original release was 1.5 years ago. I picked up another box to open, and while shopping around I noticed there are Japan-to-UK sites that are still doing plenty of back orders of VStar cases at competitive prices. Interesting that despite the heavy supply the price has sustained consistently at £65+/box, presumably in part due to how bloody good the set is.
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I forgot who made these on the Efour Discord, but they remain classics. 
Greetz,
Quuador
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Let me be completely honest here:
Buy a case of every single pokemon set that drops, forget about it.
If you can’t afford a case, buy a box.
I’ve been doing this for several years now, and slowly offloading the boxes to fund more vintage as they rise. Sell when you feel comfortable with the price.
Even steam siege raised in price, worst set ever printed if you ask me.
This isn’t a financial advice. 
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I’ve always had pretty good luck with japanese promos. If I buy one for my book, I’ll usually buy extras to squirrel away. I’ve used these before to help fund my collection down the line.
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