Base set Hype and retrace timeline

Hi guys, as we all know, anyone here is aware of the type of influence and type of ‘collector’ flying into the market in the past couple of months has been primarily social media influenced hype, which has led to naive buyers and aggressive flipping sellers, it’s definitely a potent and volatile marketplace for now. I know it’s not all bad so please take my statements as the devil’s advocate pov.

That being said, would anyone like to share their opinion or speculation on the timeline for when this hype price rocket will fade into it’s retrace and how much they think it will go down? (All relating to the base set/sealed product boom obviously)

waiting for the mod who says that this belongs in the giant market thread.


Timeline will be aligned with how long until the supply exceeds demand.

The price will based on to what extent the supply exceeds the demand.

BRB, let me ask my Ouija board.

1 Like

In T minis 5 minutes it will be moved and buried in the Giant Ramble Thread. Everytime I open the Giant Market thread it’s almost impossible to decode actual conversations on topics.


I think PSA 10 1st edition and shadowless will be fairly safe. Charizard, Blastoise, Venusaur of PSA 8 and 9 will probably be safe as well. You will see retracing of lower grades of these sets as more people start hearing about the prices and dusting off their old collections. It takes a few months for cards to get graded and then when those cards hit the market you might see some saturation over time if they aren’t scooped up fast enough (which will lead to competative price dropping to make the sale).

Collectors and flippers aren’t going to want to sell at a lower price than what they purchased at. Any price drops will come from others entering the hobby with their old basement collections or long term collectors deciding to cash out.

There will not be a crash in my opinion. People will do what they always do when a card becomes out of reach, look for the next cool thing that is ok on their wallet. That card will always exist and it will increase in price when the other card plateaus at a high pricepoint.


I thought the question and topic were narrowed and niche enough to where it’s not generalized to pokemom as a whole. Sorry if you think its an overall market topic guys.

Just enjoy it and collect your answers/opinions while you can.


Not enough supply of high grade 1st edition base holos for a crash. This is just my opinion of course but I don’t see it happening. Hard to separate the current “hype” demand from the natural organic demand of the hobby. What makes it so hard is that this “hype” demand also creates organic demand, meaning it draws new people into the hobby for the first time, or back into the hobby. So even if some of it was “hype” can actually cause a real and permanent shift in the demand curve.

Pokemon is a huge, global media franchise. It’s supported by Nintendo, a long-enduring and frankly beloved company that has a history of taking good care of its brand and franchises. I am long-term quite bullish on Pokemon and certainly wouldn’t bet against it. Most markets have cycles that move up and down. The Pokemon TCG collecting hobby has had these and will in the future too. It’s impossible to predict what will happen in the short term. The best way to collect/invest is to buy and hold through cycles. The long term trends here are very good. Speculating in any market that has had such price swings is incredibly risky. I would not recommend it and it’s beyond my risk tolerance. Buy Pokemon cards to hold, buy the ones you love, and with money you can stand to lose. Default to older, minter, better and SCARCER if you want to have the most downside protection on prices.

Personally, I’m bullish, even at current prices, especially WRT edition base. Where will anybody find more of them in high grade if no one wants to sell? You can’t assume people are buying these only to flip or make money.


Probably wont crash, just plateau for a while